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The year gone by in Jammu and Kashmir was characterised by relative peace amid development activities.For the second consecutive year Kashmir Valley witnessed a relatively peaceful summerwith declining violence indicators reported across the state..The number of terrorists eliminated in the year decreased by 25 per cent indicating reduced terrorist presence. Perhaps this accounts for the surge in infiltration attempts from across the border starting from June 2012. Pakistan thus continues to follow its strategy of destabilising Kashmir through terrorist violence and civil unrest. ISI attempts towards higher infiltration rates are indicators of this effort.
Peace Indicators
There was an upsurge in the number of tourists visiting the Valley with 1.5 million footfalls recorded in 2012 against a million footfalls in the previous year. The signs of prevailing peace were evident with return of Bollywood to the Valley during the year with shooting of a movie by late Yash Chopra in Kashmir Valley and Ladakh which prompted others to also follow suit.The Amarnath Yatra was largely peaceful and free of terrorist related incidents, although comparatively more number of pilgrims died due to physical and medical reasons. An intervention by the Honourable Supreme Courtled to orders being issued on December 13, 2012 for improvement of infrastructure and medical amenities on the Amarnath Yatra route.This led to sharp protests from separatist leaders,who contended that any such move would violate forest laws and disturb the region's delicate ecological balance. The Supreme Court Bench clarified “Neither have we directed nor should we be understood to have implicitly directed that there should be metalledmotorable road in place of the walking tracks/ passages” as they passed a slew of directives for improving the infrastructure and other amenities including health care for pilgrimage to Amarnath Shrine in Jammu and Kashmir.[i]
The year saw improved political activity in the state with 1930 political rallies and meetings taking place as compared to 1740 in the previous year.In Jammu & Kashmir, four Legislative Council (LC) seats are reserved under rural local bodies’ (Panchayat) quota. After 1980, for the first time the Panchayat members voted for these four LC seats which had 37 candidates in the fray. The Electoral College for the LC polls consisted of 33,540 panches and sarpanches with 46.56 percent in Jammu region and 53.4 percent in Kashmir region. There were strong rumours about the possible boycott of the polls by some panchayat members in particular after the killing of at least five panches and sarpanches by suspected terrorists and subsequent threats to elected panchayat members to resign and the poll boycott calls given by militant/terrorist organisations. Defying the terrorists, the people voted in large numbers, the state recording 93 percent polling with 95 percent voting in Jammu and 91 percent voting in Kashmir and Ladakh divisions. This reflects the firm belief of the grass root people in the Indian democratic system and the yearning for return to peace and normalcy.
The election process has clearly rattled the terrorist groups and their handlers across the border who have warned the elected members to quit or face the consequences. Some panchayat members and sarpanches have been killed by terrorists as a result of whichmore than 50 panchayat members announced their resignations openly through newspapers/mosques. The elections to the urban local bodies, awaited for the past two years, could also not be held due to varied reasons.The visit of moderate Hurriyat Conference leaders to Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir to interact with political leadership represented another initiative in the political arena of the state.Hardliner separatist leader Syed Ali Geelani rejected the Pakistan invite.
On the development front, foundation for construction of Z-Morh tunnel was laid in October. This is the first of the two proposed tunnels which together will ensure all-weather, round-the-yearconnectivity on the Srinagar-Kargil-Leh-Ladakh axis.The two lanes, 10 meters wide, 6.5 kmlong tunnel will also include an egress of 3.5 meters to be used in emergency. The tunnel, located 2,637 meters above sea level, will ensure the passage of 1,000 vehicles an hour at an approved maximum speed of 80 km per hour.The second, the Zojila Tunnel of 13.8 km length will be constructed just about 20 km away from the first tunnel. The foundation of this tunnel is planned to be laid in April 2013.These tunnels will raise the quality of life and the pace of development of the entire region, including Leh and Ladakh.At the railway front, the 17.5 km rail link between Qazigund and Banihal is ready and the trial run was conducted on 27 Dec 2012 by the authorities.
Security Situation
From across the border, the Difa-e-Pakistan Council, created at Lashkar-e-Taiba’s(LeT) behest continues to spew anti India venom and provide support to terrorists. Difa-e-Pakistan Council and United Jehad Council have accused the Pakistan government for improving relations with India. As per some reports, Harkat-ul-Ansar has resumed operations in J&K under a new name of Jabbar-ul-Mujahideen(JuM). JuMcadres are drawn from LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM). As per reports, the top five 'commanders' have already infiltrated into J&K. JuM is reported to have close links with Pakistan-based Haqqani network that is fighting against NATO forces in Afghanistan.[ii]
In Kashmir valley, the grandiloquence of the separatist leadership on revocation of AFSPA-90(J & K) and return of Army to barracks has shown a distinct decline which has led to a shift in the political discourse in the valley. The separatist leaders are now taking up daily issues like power shortage, condition of roads, health issues of public, corruption, supreme court directive on improvement of infrastructure for Amarnath yatra apart from demanding that separatist leadership be included in talks towards solution to Kashmir problem.
Assessment
Therelative calm of 2012, while a positive development needs to be carefully assessed.It could simply be a lull before the storm, with terrorist groups taking time to reconfigure their tactics in the context of the internal situation in Pakistan and changing public perceptions within the state. The draw-down of US troops in Afghanistan will also impact on the security situation in the state. However, there is a sense that people are fed up with prolonged disturbances and want to progress further in life.Security Forces operations have been at the desired pitch and large number of terrorists have been eliminated leading to a more peaceful atmosphere. The economic situation has also improved peace over last two years which further renews hope.
In this sensitive border State, peace is however not irreversible. The government must address local issues and dimensions irrespective of Pakistan.A major concern of the population has been the fate of a large number of youth against whom FIRs were lodged in various police stations across the valley after the disturbances during 2008 to 2010 unrest including the stone pelters. They are all in the young age group of 14 to 35 years and face a bleak future. During Apr 2012, the government had selected 407 FIRs for withdrawal under an amnesty policy for stonepelters announced by the state government in 2011.[iii]A general amnesty to all the affected stone peltersexcluding serious offenders may perhapsbe the need of the hour.
Separatist’sattempts to exploit regional fault linesneed to be firmly dealt with. The infiltration levels will put more pressure on security forces for neutralising the terrorists before the onset of state elections in 2014. The people’s basic grievances on issues such as power, communication, health, FIRs etc also need to be addressed on priority. Clearly, the next two years are critical in ensuring that the state does not revert back to violence and instability.
The author is a Senior Fellow at CLAWS.
[i]http://www.indianexpress.com/news/amarnath-yatra-supreme-court-says-didn-t-order-metalled-road/1044992 accessed on 22 Feb 2013.
[ii]http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/top-6-commanders-infiltrate-through-samba-sector/ accessed on 22 Feb 2013.
[iii] http://www.ndtv.com/article/cities/jammu-and-kashmir-govt-selects-407-firs-for-withdrawal-under-amnesty-193025 accessed on 23 Feb 2013.
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