Pak Taliban in Syria: Should India be Worried?

 In early July 2013, a small group of expert trainers from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) reportedly set up a base (command and control centre) in Syria to support jihadist activities against the Assad regime. Subsequently, there have been media reports that hundreds of Pakistani jihadists from the TTP and organisations such as the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) will soon be fighting in Syria. This could have a potentially adverse impact on India.

The TTP commanders in Pakistan reportedly state that they want to fight alongside their "Mujahedeen friends" in Syria to reciprocate the support they have received from the Arabs in their jihad against the Russians and the Americans. But the reasons are perhaps more nuanced and relate also to the wider sectarian conflict for eminence in the Islamic world between Shia and Sunni groups. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, on 25^th May 2013 declared to his Shiite followers in Lebanon that the Syrian war is "our battle". In response, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Egyptian theologian who is perhaps the world’s most influential Sunni cleric, called on Sunni Muslims worldwide at a Friday rally in Doha on May 31, to fight against the Assad regime and Hezbollah in Syria. These calls appear to be the motivation for the increasing involvement of jihadi groups from other countries to Syria.

Experts have put the jihadis from Pakistan into two categories: foreigners, who belong to al-Qaeda and various Central Asian groups, and the indigenous militants, who belong to TTP and other Pakistani jihadist groups. The foreign militants had initially come to Pakistan's tribal region to fight US-led forces in Afghanistan and according to Pakistani intelligence, these foreign militants are now heading to Syria because they view it as a priority. Pakistani militants are from various parts of Pakistan, including the provinces of Baluchistan, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the southern city of Karachi. They have been going to Syria over last two months through a network jointly run by the TTP and LeJ. TTP is also looking for fresh recruits for Syria in Mohmand, Bajaur, Khyber, Orakzai and Waziristan agencies. Further, Dawn reports that these militants are going to fight alongside the al-Qaeda affiliate Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Some observers have suggested that TTP’s move to send militants to Syria is aimed at strengthening the group's ties with al-Qaeda's central leadership, a demonstration of loyalty at a time when its relations with the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan, are tense. The finance for these militants is reported to be coming from sources in the UAE and Bahrain. 

Syrian Tussle

Two weeks after Qaradawi’s appeal, a Saudi cleric Saud al-Shuraim declared from the pulpit of the Grand Mosque in Mecca that believers had a duty to support Syrian rebels “by all means.” The Syrian conflict is now characterised as a worldwide struggle between "100 million Shiites" and "1.7 billion Sunni Muslims." There are perhaps as many as 10,000 Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, Iraqi militias and Iranian fighters inside Syria including members of the elite Quds brigade of the Revolutionary Guards. These fighters have, at present, shifted the balance of power on the battlefield in Assad's favor. Shiites from Yemen, Afghanistan, and India have started to arrive in Syria though many of them say they have come only to protect Shiite shrines, such as the Sayyida Zaynab mosque in Damascus.

Syria’s civil war is fast turning into an all-out sectarian conflict involving the entire region. About 6,000 Sunni fighters from more than 50 different countries have joined the Syrian rebels since the uprising began in 2011, making Syria the second-largest foreign-fighter destination in the history of modern Islamism. (The Afghan jihad against the erstwhile Soviet Union is the largest so far). There are  reported to be around 120 French fighters in Syria, about 100 Britons, a few Americans and surprisingly at least 200 Australians. As fallout, the Syrian conflict is now causing sectarian tension and violence in the sprawling suburbs of Sydney and has spread to other Australian cities. In response, Australian counterterrorism operatives have been dispatched to Turkey and Lebanon to collect information on Australians suspected to be fighting in Syria and a new Australian law has been enacted to curb recruitment of jihadis.

Assessment

The Middle East today is alive to the danger of the Syrian conflict spreading further to the neighbouring countries particularly Lebanon and Jordan as the polarisation on religious and sectarian lines is increasing. The Iranian connection to the Syrian conflict has been confirmed to run beyond money and material. The involvement of Pakistani Sunni jihadists with the anti-government forces in Syria and the Iranian support to the Assad regime in various forms and levels has the potential to bring the sectarian strife to the Af-Pak region and India’s doorstep. An Islamist commander in Syria was reported saying that he rejected calls from some in the Syrian opposition to keep the fighting focused inside Syria. “We have one enemy,” Iran, he said, “and we should fight this enemy as one front and on different fronts.”

A widespread sectarian conflict would not only further open up fault lines within Pakistan but also set up confrontation with Iran in Baluchistan and Western Afghanistan. Quite similar to the scenario which some analysts say could result from the radical Sunni dominance of the Taliban, if it came to power in Kabul post 2014. The issue also has the potential to complicate Indian involvement in Afghanistan which at present is relying heavily on Iranian cooperation for access to Afghanistan. The escalation of conflict in Syria, intensity of the sectarian divide and its spread to AfPak could reduce US interest in the region and affect their policy on maintaining   presence in Afghanistan post 2014.

Thomas Hegghammer, a Norwegian terrorism expert, released a paper showing that 1 in 9 Westerners who fight in foreign jihadist insurgencies become involved in terrorist plots in their home country. As per some reports, China is feeling the impact of this phenomenon in Xinjiang. While this phenomenon has not yet affected India, there is no certainty that this will not do so in the future. As of now, Pakistani jihadis moving to Syria are mostly from FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. When they return, the possibility of them being diverted to create discord in Jammu and Kashmir, cannot be ruled out. This is a challenge, which India and its security forces must be prepared to confront.

Monish Gulati is an independent defence analyst based in New Delhi

Views expressed are personal