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As the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) prepares to withdraw by the end of 2014, there is growing uncertainty about the situation in Afghanistan post-2014. There is an international consensus that with the promised economic and other aid, Afghanistan should have a democratically elected and stable government that would help its rebuilding and all round development peacefully. Considering the strategic importance of and India’s historical links with Afghanistan, India needs to be proactive to ensure its continued engagement with Afghanistan.
Current Situation
Elections have been scheduled for April 2014. Out of 27 presidential candidates (mostly warlords, tribal leaders, former ministers, politicians and officials), 16 stand disqualified by the Independent Election Commission (IEC). Although President Karzai is not contesting, his brother, Qayum Karzai is among the front-runners. Taliban have vowed to boycott any elections till the US forces leave. The US had tried to negotiate with Taliban, but has apparently failed. President Karzai has been keen to talk to Taliban. Even after Pakistan released Mullah Biradar, the Deputy leader of Taliban on Karzai’s request, no progress has been reported.
The ISAF has been handing over operational responsibilities to the Afghanistan Security Forces (ASF) gradually. It has also been training ASF personnel in order to ensure they can tackle any militant activities post-2014. After prolonged negotiations, the US and Afghanistan have managed to reach a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) which entails presence of limited US troops (mainly trainers and few US drones) in Afghanistan post-2014. However, the BSA is yet to be approved by the ‘Loya Jirga’ (the traditional Afghan council of elders) which is scheduled to meet on 19 November.
Taliban suicide attacks on the ISAF troops continue. Taliban has also been infiltrating the ASF by encouraging some of its members and sympathisers to get recruited as ASF soldiers. This has resulted in continued incidents of ‘Insider killings’- killings of ISAF personnel by ASF personnel. Assassination of government officials by Taliban also continues, the latest being Arsallah Jamal, Governor of Logar Province.
Pakistan continues its duplicity. Although it officially states that it would prefer a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan, its quest for having a pliant government rule post-2014 Afghanistan continues. Besides its close ties with the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban, Pakistan has been strengthening its ties with other militant groups like the Northern Alliance.
Likely Post-2014 Scenario
At present, there is uncertainty about the post-2014 situation as it depends on a host of factors. Some of these are:
- Approval to the BSA by the ‘Loya Jirga’. A number of contentious issues delayed the finalisation of the BSA. Although the agreement has been reached, the exact details of the agreement have not been declared officially. Problem will arise if the ‘Loya Jirga’ does not approve the BSA or approves it with some amendment. It could lead to further negotiations leading to further uncertainty. It is expected to be finally ratified before elections.
- Capability of ASF. It is debatable whether the ASF as a whole will have the capability to ensure security of the country. With the support of limited US troops as envisaged in the BSA, it would be possible to ensure security.
- Conduct of 2014 elections. Although preparations for holding free and fair elections are underway, boycott call by the Taliban and some other militant/ terrorist groups may pose difficulties. However, with a well-trained ASF and support of the ISAF personnel and international observers it is expected that free and fair elections will be conducted in April 2004 so that Karzai hands over to the newly elected President before the end of 2014.
- Progress on the reconciliation and reintegration process. The Afghanistan National Independent Peace and Reconciliation Commission set up in 2005 to end inter-group rivalry, resolve unsettled national issues and facilitate healing of wounds caused by past injustices is still continuing its work. It is expected to complete its task before the elections.
- The role of Pakistan. The main problem will be the role played by Pakistan. It would try to have a pliant government in Kabul. If the election results are not to its liking, it would do everything possible to ensure a government of its choice in Kabul even if it means installing the Taliban rule or a Taliban-led or any pliant militant group-led coalition government. It would also try to ensure minimum role for India in Afghanistan.
India’s Role
Post 9/11, India’s presence in Afghanistan has been restricted to non-military aid in socio-economic, health, education and infrastructure fields for rebuilding and reconstruction. However, after a number of Pakistan-aided terror strikes against the Indian embassy/consulates and Indian assets like public and private project sites and kidnapping/killing of Indian workers, India has substantially reduced its manpower and funding. No new projects have been started and the progress on ongoing projects has been rather slow for the last three years. For example, the iron-ore mining foray by the SAIL-led consortium at Hajigak has been put on hold due to financial crunch.
There is convergence of views among Russia, Iran and India about the requirement of a stable and peaceful Afghanistan post-2014 and they have agreed to work together. The progress on development of Chabahar port in Iran for using it as an alternative trade route by India has been slow. Although during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to China, both the countries agreed to coordinate their positions and cooperate with each other in international issues like Afghanistan, there has been little progress. China is deeply engaged in the energy sector and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. In addition, being Pakistan’s all weather friend, it will be unrealistic to expect China to help broaden India’s role in Afghanistan.
If India wishes to meet President Karzai’s request to broaden the scope and pace of the training of ASF personnel, it would be ideal to send Indian security trainers to Afghanistan rather than training them in India. All in all, India needs to be proactive in ensuring that its engagement with Afghanistan is re-energised and deepened. India needs to actively pursue its projects in Afghanistan, if it wants to remain engaged beyond 2014.
Maj Gen N S Sapre (Retd) is a defence analyst based in Deolali (Nashik)
Views expressed are personal
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