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The second constituent assembly (CA) elections of Nepal to choose 601 members were held on 19th November 2013. Of these 240 members are directly elected FPTP, while 335 are selected through proportional representation (PR), and 26 seats are reserved for nominated members. The voting was rather high in view of the fact that 33 fringe political parties and a faction of the United Communist Party of Nepal, UCPN (Maoist) did not take part. As per the election results declared by the election commission the total vote for FPTP system were 78.34%, and for the PR system 79.82%, while there were 4.96% invalid vote in FPTP system and 3.2% invalid vote in PR system. The total estimated cost of the elections was Rs 4.84 billion and in order to ensure that the elections were held in a free, fair and transparent manner there were three international election observing organization and 46 internal, with a total of 30,667 observers and 217,456 civil servants deputed on election duty. The Nepal Army too was deployed yet the Maoist who badly lost the elections is crying foul and along with 15 other parties did not attend the meeting called by the EC to declare the final results on December 03, 2013.
The results of the elections in Nepal have put the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist party of Nepal CPN (UML) both moderate parties firmly in the driver seat with the former being a firm pro India party. The voter has punished two political parties the Maoist and Madhesi, as they felt both these parties had failed to deliver a constitution in the first place and radicalized the society, thus they severely punished these two parties. As a result of the same the UCPN (Maoist) who had 229 seats in the first CA elections is now down to 80 seats. On the other hand the Nepali Congress (Oldest political party of Nepal) which had 115 seats in the first elections is now up to 196. The Maoist who exchanged the bullet for the ballet been eased out by the voter to a distant third position as they were unable to deliver the constitution. It thus transpires that Nepal's experiment from leftist has returned back to moderate centrist democracy. Nepal Congress (NC) has been elevated to first position but lacks a clear mandate to draft the tricky issues of the constitution which have been a stumbling block.
The Madhesi, (people of Indian origin living in the Terai region) their parties which had a total of 12.5% of the total seats and were quite strong in the last elections have also lost out this time being sixth now, just as the Maoist for near similar reasons. The gainers have been Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal (RPP-N), this party is now in the fourth position which is a center-right; royalist political party in Nepal and splinter group of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party now in fifth position. The difference between the two factions is allegiance to the royalty, with the latter formed out of the political elite of the erstwhile Panchayat system. Is this a revival of the institution of monarchy in Nepal needs to be observed?
The Communist party of Nepal CPN (UML) was formed on January 6, 1991 through Party of Nepal (Marxist–Leninist). CPN (UML) was a product of the Jana Andolan (People's Movement) uprising where communists, together with the Nepali Congress, played a major role to restore democracy in Nepal. It currently has 175 seats in this CA, the second highest in this election. To sum up the in the current elections the NC is leading with a total of 196 seats. The CPN (UML) is second with 175 seats, the Maoist with 80 seats are a poor third and acting like spoilt sports and have also asked for a special probe into alleged election malpractices. The final tally will increase marginally with the 26 seats for nominations being divided as per percentage of seats won.
The aim of this CA is to replace the assembly that was dissolved in May 2012, as it was unable to draft a new constitution. Nepal was initially governed as a monarchy, from 1996 to 2006 there was a civil war waged by the Maoist. In 2008, monarchy was abolished the first CA was elected headed by the Maoist but failed to promulgate a constitution in the required time frame thus the need for a second CA elections. The issues that bedevil the drafting of the constitution are many. What are the issues that need to be sorted out for which no political party has a clear mandate. The first is to sort out the Presidency, there are conflicting views whether the current incumbent needs to continue or be replaced. Besides this is the fact that the Maoist want consensus that means all must agree, and the voter does not agree to their manner of ethnic federalism. The other parties thus want a two third majority mandate to get the constitution drafting process going. Nepal’s population can be stated to be two third of hill origin and one third of Terai descent. Its ethnic and caste dynamics are very complex and complicated. The current population of Nepal is around 26,620,809 in 102 ethnic castes. The result of the election strongly rejects identity-based federalism, and the voting pattern shows that Nepal is united and will remain united, thus ethnic states that Maoist wanted are firmly rejected.
Nepal has been a Kathmandu centric society, how will it decentralize to accommodate interests of diverse ethnic and linguistic groups. What will be the role of the rightist parties in asking for a ceremonial king, will there be a revival of the same? The disruptive power of the communist needs to be understood, Prachanda had a larger than life image, will the two factions combine one that fought the elections and one that did not. The international community and India in particular need to be patient with Nepal. Just as Maldives has produced new challenges so will Nepal, and Bangladesh may well provide another challenge. The bulk of India baiting takes place in the capital Kathmandu where the political elite live will the voice of the average citizen be heard in Kathmandu?
Historically, culturally and religiously India and Nepal have umbilical links yet the relationship between the two countries at times becomes stressful. India needs to have patience with Nepal and the immediate region which is undergoing demographic stress be it Bangladesh or Maldives, a patient India is the answer, while keeping a firm eye on China, and the influence of the ISI.
Brig CS Thapa(Retd) is a renowned Defence Analyst
Views expressed are personal
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