Post-Peshawar Pakistan and Concerns for India

The Peshawar Army School terrorist attack, which left 152 people including 133 children dead, was termed as the worst although inevitable outcome of Pakistan’s policy of nurturing terror groups in its backyard. Numerous prophecies have been made, ever since this heinous attack, about this being the turning point in Pakistan’s policy towards terror. This was followed by loud statements by Nawaz Sharif stating that there were no Good or Bad Taliban and also by the Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif, warning Taliban that they will have to pay a heavy price for this act of theirs.

Sure enough these statements were backed by actions on ground. Pakistan Army in air strikes and ground offensive killed approximately 55 militants in the Northwest Tribal Regions adjoining Orakzai and Khyber Tribal Districts on the Afghanistan Border. Another was the decision of Pakistan Government to execute 500 militants after lifting a moratorium on the death penalty in the wake of the Peshawar school massacre. This has been quickly followed up by hanging of seven militants, six for an assassination attempt on Gen Parvez Musharraf, the former President of Pakistan and one for the bombing at Pakistan Army’s GHQ.

Unquestionably all these actions were taken as pointers towards the so called shift in Pakistan’s policy towards terrorism. However the simultaneous decision of Pakistan’s Court of granting of bail to Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the key planner of 2008 Mumbai attacks put the new found exuberance in Indian circles to rest. Once again the two-faced approach of Pakistan towards terrorism lay exposed, where the rules of the game are obviously different for the terror groups on its Western and Eastern frontiers.   

Also the relationship of convenience between Pakistan and US on the issue of tackling terrorism became pronounced when recently US approved US$ 1Bn as aid to Pakistan for 2015 with preconditions that Islamabad takes steps towards disruption of the Haqqanis network and also towards elimination the safe havens for al Qaida and Tehrik-i- Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The US narrative conveniently skips the mention of the militant outfits like Lashkar-e-Tiaba (LeT) aka Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JuD), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi(LeJ) and other outfits targeting India. So much so for the Global War on Terrorism (GWoT); the US, by this one act of theirs,  has endorsed the Pakistani policy of “bad terrorists” on its western front versus “good terrorists” on its eastern front, who aid Pakistan’s proxy war.

Both US and Pakistan, having lived through their personal tragedies of terror strikes of 9/11 and 16/12 resolved to get back at terror in their own ways. US by the GWoT and Pakistan by coming down heavily on the terror outfits militarily and also by adopting a 20 point National Plan of action to tackle terrorism. However by exhibiting a preferential approach to tackling terrorism, both US and Pakistan are playing with the basic cardinals of combating this menace. Given how deep-rooted terrorism has become in Pakistan, the remedy lies in a comprehensive rather than selective approach. Both Pakistan and US have to understand that the Terror groups have a great deal of interoperability among themselves and thus leaving some intact would only enable the rest to recuperate after temporary setbacks.

Meanwhile as a matter of routine, Indian intelligence agencies, as always at this time of the year, have issued warnings towards all possible targets against probable terror strikes across the country. However a more comprehensive and focused approach, duly supported by dependable intelligence is necessitated. One good of the same is the interception of the Pakistani Fishing boat by the Indian Coast Guard off the Porbander Coast on 01 Jan 2015, where in the radio chatter was picked up by NTRO in the last week of December 2014. An active surveillance thereafter was instituted till this boat left the Karachi coast and was kept under surveillance by the Dornier aircraft till it was handed over to the interceptor ship of Coast Guard. Obviously a major probable terror strike has been averted by this well coordinated effort, probably a rarity for our country, which in the past has always relied on LUCK to ward off the terror strikes and has always been reactive than proactive in such situations.

In the meanwhile, it is imperative that India does not take this shift in Pakistan’s Policy towards terrorism at face value. As already stated above there is not much change in the Pakistan’s policy towards fuelling terrorism in India and the US is also, willy-nilly, turning a blind eye to it. The psyche of the Pakistan Army at this time after their ego gravely bruised by the Peshawar incident, has to be understood. The survivors at Peshawar Army School narrated that the assailants targeted the children and the wives of Pakistan’s army personnel, who studied and worked as teachers at the school. This has challenged the standing of Pakistan Army in the eyes of their own men, their families and general citizens. As an immediate riposte, the military offensive and the hanging of certain terrorists in custody was instituted.

Thus, for India to think Peshawar is the end of Pakistan’s efforts to fuel terrorism into India would be a folly with serious repercussions. Owing to their eroded standing and under pressure of the aftermath of the Peshawar incident, the Pakistan Army is likely to orchestrate an incident(s) in India which may be of higher magnitude than the Peshawar incident, so that they can go back to the masses in Pakistan to claim that the ordeal of Peshawar was lesser than what has happened in India. Hence Indian intelligence agencies and the security forces have to focus on specific intelligence and not issue generic warnings, reactions to which become lackadaisical due to the routine nature of the intelligence. The magnitude can only be achieved by either having more numbers of causalities than Peshawar or if the value of the target exceeds the effect of numbers. While the activation of the International Border in the Samba and Hiranagar Sectors by Pakistan, as always indicates towards infiltration attempts, the vulnerability of the coastline seems to be a matter of bigger concern. The explosive-laden boat intercepted by Coast Guard could have been heading towards the western coast, which has lucrative and high value targets like the Jamnagar Oil Refineries or Bombay High.  

The above are the assumptions of the immediate threat analysis keeping in mind the psych of Pakistan Army in the present circumstances and own intelligence agencies have to thus be on their toes to anticipate and counter such threats. Also a serious and structured capability building in terms of intelligence gathering resources and force potential are absolute imperatives for India to counter this menace as a long term policy.  

The author is Senior Fellow at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.