Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Indian Concerns

Abstract.  The aim of the article is to describe briefly the latest situation in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and bring out the Indian concerns on the same.

The fertile plains of Ukraine are witnessing a battle that refuses to die down. Since February 2014, the Ukrainians supported by the West have clashed with the Russian rebels leading to a violent and continuous battle for supremacy in the region. This battle seems more of Cold War 2.0 playing out on a much smaller scale and scope. The Russians have felt offended by the increasing clout of the NATO forces led by US in the Russian backyard while the US decries Russian intervention in internal matters of a sovereign country i.e. Ukraine. Nevertheless, this violent engagement has implications for India in many direct and indirect ways and this article aims to discuss the same.

The Crisis

The crisis, in brief, traces its origins to a March 2014 incident, when the Russians took over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, claiming that it had wilfully acceded to it. This position was disputed and vehemently rejected by the West, which called it a blatant example of complete disregard for international law by the aggressive Russians and an illegal act of annexation.  Since then, a number of events which included the installation of the pro-Russian dispensation in Crimea, a disputed referendum and unilateral declaration of Crimean independence have led to escalation of the crisis. Subsequently, Russia was expelled from the G8 Grouping and economic sanctions placed on them. The UN General Assembly too rejected the referendum vote and annexation of Crimea and adopted a non-binding resolution which affirmed the "territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders". [1]

On 23 February 2015, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko pledged to return Crimea to Ukrainian control ‘by any means’ and declared "Ukraine will never give up its sovereign right to Crimea and will defend the rights of the people who live there’’.[2] Such aggressive posturing has undoubtedly been a setback to the hopes of peace in the restive region where violence has already claimed more than 5,000 lives according to United Nations.[3]

The Indian Stand

All along, India has been a firm supporter of peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis and has maintained a close vigil on the issue. Recently, in response to a parliamentary question, the Minister of state for External Affairs stated categorically that, ‘The Government has been closely assessing the evolving situation in Ukraine. India has consistently been calling for an end to the violence and for a constructive dialogue to find political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all sections of Ukraine’s society and all the countries in the region.’[4]  In view of the deteriorating security situation, on 23 January 2015, the MEA issued another advisory for Indian Nationals residing in Ukraine particularly Indian Students in Donetsk and Lugansk to leave the regions immediately, ‘as there has been an intensification of shelling and fighting’[5] in these regions over the past few days.  Notwithstanding the above facts, India has unambiguously recognised the legitimate Russian concerns in the region. In a March 2014 statement, Indian National Security Adviser, Mr Shiv Shankar Menon had stated this fact. He noted, ‘“We hope that whatever internal issues there are within Ukraine are settled peacefully, and the broader issues of reconciling various interests involved, and there are legitimate Russian and other interests involved…. We hope those are discussed, negotiated and that there is a satisfactory resolution to them.”[6] The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, had thanked the Indian government while the West criticised India for the same. A greater subtext exists in the Indian position on the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict. Historically, Russia (Soviet Union) has been an ‘all weather friend’ and a time tested partner of India while diplomatic relations with the Ukrainians were established only recently (in 1992). Additionally, India-Russia ties have acquired a firmer dimension with the upgradation of the relations to the level of a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” in 2010. This is akin to designating a country as India’s best friend. On the economic front too, the total Indian trade with Ukraine stood at $ 3,103.93 million in 2012-13 while with the Russian Federation, the trade stood at over $ 6.023 billion (for a period from January to August 2013).[7] Despite the apparent Indo-Russian bonhomie, Ukraine remains an important player for Indian strategic concerns. It not only has inked a defence cooperation agreement with India in 2012 but also provides us with nuclear safety-related information as it operates around 15 reactors similar to the ones installed at Kundankulam in Tamilnadu. It is also helping in modernising India’s 100-plus fleet of military transport aircrafts and is also providing engines and other essential military spare parts.

Conclusion

The Indian government needs to be careful regarding the path it treads on the Ukraine issue. On 21 February 2015, news of Russia slamming European Union for its call to India for mediation in Ukraine ruffled a few feathers.[8] Notwithstanding the reasons and politics of such an initiative by EU, the case speaks of India’s rising stature in global politics as well as the weight its opinion carries in international diplomatic circles.

Till now India has made the right noises regarding crisis diffusion through peace manoeuvres. For Instance, on 2^nd February 2015, India reiterated its stand through the Joint Communiqué of the 13th Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Russia, India and the People's Republic of China, which stated categorically that ‘all parties in the inter-Ukraine conflict must exercise restraint and fully implement the Minsk Protocol, engage in comprehensive dialogue and pursue a peaceful resolution of the crisis through political negotiation’. [9]

Finally, India needs to get its act together and see to it that that its national interests are safeguarded in this predominantly European problem. It must avoid any harm to its trade relations with Russia as well as Ukraine in the longer run. It must build diplomatic pressure on both the clashing parties to find peaceful common ground through 15^th February’s Minsk peace plan which mandates both sides to withdraw their heavy weapons to different distances from the front line, depending on their calibre.

The author is Research Intern at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.