India Needs To Engage Within And Beyond The New Israeli Government

2015 Israeli election

 “Against all odds, we have achieved a great victory for the Likud. We have achieved a great victory for the Likud-led nationalist camp and our people,” - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this while addressing a large crowd of supporters of his Likud party immediately after the declared election result gave him clear mandate to move in the direction of forming the new (coalition) government in Israel.[i] The final result of the twentieth Knesset election stand as Likud 30, Zionist Union 24, Joint List (alliance of Arab parties) 13 and the smaller but no less important political parties sharing the rest of the pie among themselves in the 120 seats unicameral national legislature. [ii] The Likud announced that Netanyahu hopes to form a coalition with the Jewish Home, Kulanu, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, and United Torah Judaism.[iii]

The election result does not end the big game of political rambling in Israel for the next 4 years- i.e. defined term period of an elected Knesset- for in the past most governments have not served a full term.[iv] The opposition is already gearing up to lock horns with the new coalition government that Netanyahu will head as prime minister of Israel for a third consecutive term, and a fourth overall.[v] Prior to the election Herzog-Livni duo, leaders of Zionist Union- the prominent opposition political party in the election fray, unleashed a forceful election campaign in a dedicated effort to dethrone Netanyahu. They joined together their respective political parties, i.e. Labour and Hatnuah, to form The Zionist Union in December 2014. This newly formed party was on many occasions running almost neck-to-neck with Likud as per most pre poll (even exit poll) predictions up until the final election verdict was declared.[vi] Conceding defeat Herzog said his party is willing to sit back as the opposition in the Knesset while insinuating the point that he and his colleagues have the wherewithal to exhibit formidable opposition character.[vii]

So, Netanyahu now faces a stronger centre-left opposition in Zionist Union, Joint List (led by Ayman Odeh - that has come on strong this election) and smaller left parties. Moreover, he has an ardours task of managing the new allies in his right inclined government- the smaller (restive) political parties that are primarily interested in furthering sectoral benefits that cater to their respective electoral bases.

Comprehending Israeli political system

Israel practices public democracy by following a nationwide system of proportional representation. The number of seats a party receives in the Knesset is proportional to the number of votes it receives and the minimum threshold for any party to enter Knesset is 3.25 percent as raised by the Governance Law passed in March 2014.[viii] A characteristic feature of the Israeli political system is the ever operating process of fusion and fission between political parties- the splitting apart and merging of new and existing political parties.[ix]

Further, the political spectrum in Israel is unique from rest of the world in the sense that political right and left is hereby defined on the issue of Jewish-Palestinian conflict. The political parties that take an outright resistance for the two-state solution and even call creation of Greater Israel fall on the extreme right of the spectrum, like Jewish Home led by Naftali Bennett. While the political parties that ardently advocate for a two-state solution in order to bring about lasting peace in Israel fall on the extreme left, like Meretz. However in-reality all parties tend to swing considerable degrees within this political paradigm depending on situations and events that enable them to expand their sway within their relatively fixed traditional electoral bases and lure electorates from beyond that. This was explicitly visible during the recent Knesset election.

In the coming time the country’s political system will be in a state of flux as opposition parties will persistently attempt to discredit Netanyahu and fervently resist all government policies (and bills government introduce in Knesset), which may be relatively controversial in some way. However they will be able to inflict least harm to the new government and its policies unless there is opposition from within it.

Global anxieties surrounding Netanyahu’s re-win

During the election campaigning Netanyahu resorted to a hawkish tactic of inflating the security problem, both internal and external, faced Jewish people in Israel in an attempt to strike the chord of the Jewish electorates.[x] However the other political parties equally attempted to rake-up the magnitude and intensity of the particular agendas they were highlighting, including demonization of Netanyahu.

The U.S. President Barack Obama has condemned Netanyahu’s deeply divisive politics within Israel. The U.S. excluded Iran and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah from the 2015 “Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”, which was released on February 26, 2015, in attempt to change its foreign policy outlook towards the Middle East region.[xi] The U.S. is now re-assessing the underlying basis of its intimate alliance with Netanyahu led Israel.  So, the new government will have to worry to secure the U.S.’s veto immunity for Israel in UNSC in the future.

The Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank are resolutely unhappy with Netanyahu emerging victorious in the election for they feel this means a death-blow to the U.S. initiated Middle East peace process.[xii]

Proposition for Indian government

The Modi-led Indian government while engaging with the new Israeli coalition government needs to take cautious note of the social, political and cultural undercurrents that are prevailing and in process of unfolding in the larger Israeli society. The Israeli society is a dynamic society and there is no certainty of independent longevity of any internal political force.

The 2015 election results infer that majority section of the Jewish populace in Israel aspire for security as a primary need for oneself, their families and the Jewish nation-state at large- which Netanyahu has promised to deliver. However, it will be wrong for India to unconditionally join hands with the new Netanyahu-led government to marginalize the Arab community living within Israel or the Palestinians living in West Bank and Gaza for India has been historically supportive for the Palestinian statehood cause.

If Modi makes a visit to Israel in near-future, he cannot afford to ignore Herzog, now Prime Minister of Tel Aviv[xiii] , at the cost of appeasing Netanyahu. Further, he needs to shake hands with both Naftali Bennett and Ayman Odeh.

The author is a PhD Candidate with Energy Studies Program at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed are personal.