Is The Syrian Endgame Nearing?

Abstract: UN level talks including Iran and resurgence in rebel groups’ victory could push for a political settlement in the fifth year of the Syrian conflict

After four years of bloodshed, violence and civil war that has killed more than 220,000 people, displaced over half the population and torn apart the country, there are indications that the unknotting of the quagmire in Syria could be near. For starters, following multiple failed talks, negotiations and botched plans to end the violence in Syria, the United Nations in its new game-plan has invited Iran—principal ally of Syria, in the proposed talks to find a way out of the conflict. The scheduled talks expected to begin on May 4 in series of meetings with the Syrian regime, various opposition groups and regional stakeholders including Iran has both the US and Russia nodding in support. In addition,  the opposition rebels for the first time in two years, have made strategic territorial gains, weakening the regime position and could force Assad to rethink his political and military strategies.

Iran as a game-changer?

Assad’s fate is closely tied with Iran. Since the civil war outbreak in Syria, Iran has poured substantial military support with armaments, unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), personnel and expertise as well as economic aid and financial loans to keep the current dynamics of Syrian power afloat. Without Iran’s support and Hezbollah’s fighters, the Assad regime would not have survived five years of war. Iran’s support came at a time when the regime suffered massive defections of its Sunni infantry units who left the army en masse halving the Syrian army’s strength from 220,000 to around 110,000. Shia foreign fighters led by Iran replaced the less-reliable Sunni soldiers and bolstered Assad’s weakened forces to hold out  against the rebels. The Iran-led military campaign  successfully deployed commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite Quds forces as well several thousand Shiite fighters from Hezbollah, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to fight alongside the Syrian troops and loyalist National Defense Force. These Iranian-armed Shia militias have been combined to form a new arm of Syrian Hezbollah commanded independently by IRGC or through Hezbollah’s field commanders. By training Syrian forces, assisting in the gathering of intelligence and directly involving its men in combat fighting, the Iran-Hezbollah regional alliance has become indispensible for the regime.

Supporting the war-hit Syrian economy that is increasingly dependent on its allies for financial aid to run governmental services, provide basic facilities to the 12 million people currently residing in the country, as well as lead military operations against the rebel forces and terrorists, has also burdened Iran. Since 2013, it has provided  a $ 4 billion credit and additional loans to Syria while Russia has provided contracts worth at least $4 billion of  military aid. Iran is currently locked in a geo-strategic regional battle with Saudi Arabia to carve out its hegemony in the Shia-led states. The political upheavals in the region and its growing military involvement in the conflicts in Iraq and Yemen have started to show its strain on the economy of Iran that remains hit hard due to the ongoing international sanctions imposed for developing nuclear weapons. EU diplomat Federica Mogherini who led the nuclear deal negotiations called on foreign minister Javad Zarif ``to play a major but positive role in the Syrian-led transition.”  For Iran, the Syria talks, which come a month before the June 30 deadline for finalising the nuclear deal agreement and end its three-decade sanctions, could not come at a better time. Its role in Syria talks could be a determinant of its image as a responsible player rather than a hostile spoiler in regional peace and stability. Remember that Assad is important to Iran because his government allows using Syria’s land routes for passing heavy military arms to Hezbollah. In its larger plan of establishing Shia influence from Yemen to Iraq crosses Syria, it is  important for Iran to have a regime in Syria pro-Iran. As Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, points out, for Iran, ``Assad is expendable and his fate negotiable as long as the political settlement preserving the regime infrastructure and support for the resistance axis.”

International mediation over the years for a conflict resolution in Syria failed primarily because Assad’s government refuses to negotiate with the rebel opposition, much of whose leadership is in exile. The rebel groups including secularists and extremists fighting to topple the government in power also refused to participate in talks involving Iran as it holds the later directly responsible for propping up Assad. Iran has stayed away from the previous UN-led talks all based on the 2012 Geneva Communiqué that called for for political transition in Syria, in effect leading Assad to step down from power. The failure to get the primary contentious parties and external stakeholders, those involved in proxy support through military, on one negotiating table has resulted in a war of attrition on ground. This time, according to the UN special envoy on Syria, Staffan de Mistura, “the talks are not negotiations but separate meetings with various parties in Syria each to see what chances there are to bring them back to the table.”  Iran is a part of the problem ailing Syria and ignoring its intrinsic involvement that is pivotal to the regime survival is unlikely to resolve the current stalemate in the battle between the pro-government and rebel forces. Getting Iran on board, especially in the light of the recent nuclear talk negotiations, has increased expectations to see it taking a lead in bringing stability to the region.

Rebels gaining momentum against regime forces

On the military front, Assad is fast losing territory under his control to new emerging coalitions formed by the Islamist and handful of secular forces, suffering major battlefield loses in Aleppo, Idlib, and Dera’a Provinces. Pro-government forces are spread out thin and are unable to hold for long with a pounding advance by the various factions of rebel groups. This is the first time in two years that the vast factionalised opposition movement has recaptured  territory from the regime forces. From the time the armed conflict began, a number of towns and villages in Syria have changed hands from rebels to government forces and back. The impending Saudi-Turkey alliance along with Qatar has formed a latest Islamist coalition consisting of the  Al Qaeda-led Jabhat al Nushrah (JaN)seven other Islamic factions calling themselves  Army of Conquest and a  few hundred Turkish fighters. The increased strength and additional back-up support from this trio is responsible for the recent gains of Idlib and the city of Jisr al Shughur. The capture of these  these cities has brought the rebels closer to the Alawite heartland that remains vulnerable to a takeover by Sunni extremists and revenge killings of Alawites (the Shia sect that  Assad belongs to). The regime will be forced to reroute its strategy to reinforce its strength around the coastal region for defence. In the south, considered a regime stronghold due to the proximity to Lebanon and its ability in aiding and sending weapons to Hezbollah forces, Assad  fast losing ground. Hezabollah’s fighters were particularly important in the Assad regime’s effort to retake important towns along the Lebanese border in the second and third year of the war, but have now been ousted.. The Free Syrian Army’s Southern Front comprising of 58 groups including Islamist extremists and secular moderates is backed by the US and headquartered in Amman, Jordan. The group along with the local Islamist movement al-Muthanna defeated pro-government forces to take control of historical town of Bosra al Sham, Busra-al Harir and Izzra in Deraa province, a big set-back for the regime. The fall of Idlib in March 2015, however, became a major worrying signal for the regime. The IS is threateningly close to Damascus and other rebel groups are also gaining ground. . Assad is pressed from all fronts to deploy his army and protect key positions including the capital and the Alawite-populated coastal region. Many strategic crossings on the border with Jordan like the Nassib crossing, Bab-al Salamah with Turkey and territories in Northern Homs have been lost, giving the rebels control of new supply routes. The resurgence in rebel victories has boosted the opposition Syrian National Coalition who has appealed to provide rebels with advanced weapons in order to accelerate the real solution to the conflict in Syria by  defeating the Assad regime and ISIS. The rebel-held territories have caused a grave fear amongst the minorities and Christians to flee Idlib to escape harsh Sharia diktats imposed by JaN and other  factions. As if life under Islamic laws is not life threatening, Assad’s continuous barrel-bombing and airstrikes on rebel-held territories continue to make  Syria the biggest humanitarian disaster of West Asia. The cost of holding up Syria as it continuously fragments and spill over to the neighbouring Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey, has become too expensive for its patron Iran.

The conflict in its fifth year has taken a devastating toll on the country. Daily bombing, fighting has destroyed many major cities and towns, civilian infrastructure, hospitals; schools, markets, leading to food crisis, lack of basic facilities and a thriving black market smuggling economy, exodus of 10 million population, and rampant unemployment.  According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Syrian HDI has fallen back to where it was 38 years ago. Until 2011, Syria was a relatively politically stable and developing country in the region. Between 1986 and 2011, there were 4 terror attacks claiming 33 lives. Now Syria is a playground for Jihadist, terrorists and extremists imposing laws which have taken back Syria at least a century back in some areas. As a thumb rule, each year of civil war takes around 7 years to recover ; by that count it will take another 30 years for Syria to come back to pre-war levels.

The deteriorating situation that is plunging Syria towards a failing state underlines an urgent need for reassessment of military and political goals. Survival for  Assad in  the foreseeable future seems challenging in the rapidly transforming military scene and the scale of economic destruction. In any case transition is unavoidable either way, one that will throw Syria further down the hands of extremist versions of Islamic State or mark a political headway through negotiations and understanding for stability. Iran’s push for Assad to negotiate and relinquish power could pave a way for much-needed stability.

The author is Associate Fellow at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.