Ukraine Crisis: A Changing World Order

The recent visits by German chancellor Angela Merkel (10 May 2015) and US Secretary of State John Kerry (11 May 2015) to Russia to hold discussions with President Putin over Ukraine had raised hopes for stabilization of the conflict between Russia and the west, which broke out in 2014. The visits were the first by these western leaders since the start of crisis and it appears that the effort may not have made worthwhile difference to the ground situation. An end to the crisis in near future is unlikely and the best one can hope is a status quo without further escalations.

Putin and Merkel made no significant progress on the Ukraine crisis in their talks, with the German leader calling on Russia to use its influence with the separatist forces to stop ceasefire violations and Putin claiming it was the Ukrainians who were violating the truce. Kerry and Putin also failed to make a major breakthrough on Ukraine, only promising to solve the crisis through peaceful means under Minsk Agreements. Kerry’s visit to Russia shows that US cannot disengage completely from Russia, particularly given Moscow’s role in other important global issues such as Syria and Iran. “Important to keep lines of communication between the US and Russia open as we address pressing global issues,” Kerry wrote on Twitter.

The decision to expand the NATO post the end of cold-war and Eastern Partnership initiative of EU, led countries in East Europe to join Euro-Atlantic system after fulfilling the laid down criterion[i]. NATO has added 12 members after the German Unification and end of the Cold War which Russia believes is contrary to assurances given to it after German Unification that NATO would not extend its zone of operation to the east[ii]. However, meeting these socio-political and economic criteria for some of the countries of erstwhile Soviet Union which were also very eager to integrate has not been easy due to weak and divisive political institutions coupled with sensitivity of Russia to such an expansion as was witnessed in the case of Georgia.

Ukraine has been negotiating its membership of EU since 2002 (under NATO-Ukraine Action Plan)[iii], a development which Russia was opposed to for obvious security implications as that would have brought NATO to Black Sea and threatened its vital security including its status over Sevastopol naval base in Crimea. President Viktor Yanukovych’s announcement in 2010 that Ukraine no longer had NATO membership as a goal[iv] and his decision in November 2013 to side with Russian Federation deal and refusal to sign an Association Agreement with the EU led to internal protests by pro west demonstrators (Euromaidan), resulting in his overthrowing. There were counter protests in Russian majority eastern Ukraine and Crimea against Euromaidan which led to Russia annexing Crimea and supporting local rebels in eastern Ukraine in March 2014. Immediate economic sanctions imposed by US and EU against Russia have also not made the desired impact as Russia continues to be assertive.

The Crimean peninsula located on Black Sea has always been of strategic significance to Russian maritime needs  as it enables Russia to project its naval power in western Europe through the Mediterranean Sea and similarly European powers have also tried to dominate Crimea leading to its volatile history. After annexation from Ottoman Empire in 1783, Crimea remained part of Russia until 1954[v], when it was transferred to Ukraine till its re-annexation by Russia in 2014. In between, there was the Crimean war (1854-56) when combined British and French expeditionary force attacked the peninsula and in World War II (1942-44) it was overrun by Germans with Crimean Tatars collaboration. In retribution, Stalin, over a decade, organised the mass deportation of the entire Tatar population - some 220,000 people - to Central Asia, along with 70,000 Crimean Greeks while promoting Russians and Ukrainians settlements[vi]. Presently, ethnic Russians (58%) make up the majority of its two million populations with significant Ukrainian (24%) and Tatar (12%) minorities.[vii]

The Sevastopol naval base has housed Russian Black Sea Fleet for centuries.  Upon disintegration of the USSR, the fleet was divided up between Russia and Ukraine and the continuing presence of the Russian fleet in Sevastopol has been a cause of tension between Russia and Ukraine. In 2008, Ukraine - then under the pro-western President Viktor Yushchenko - demanded that Moscow not use the Black Sea Fleet in its conflict with Georgia and that it would have to leave the key port by 2017[viii]. After the election of the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych as president in 2010, Ukraine agreed to extend the lease by 25 years beyond 2017[ix], in return for cheaper Russian gas. But, Russia had fears that a pro west government in Ukraine could make it vacate Sevastopol.

It is strange that Ukraine, which has the second largest army in Europe after Russia and is the largest wholly European country in size, succumbed at the beginning to Russian military action meekly without firing even a single shot. EU which initiated the process for Ukraine’s integration into its folds has failed to influence developments from the start of crisis and has neither a strategic approach to deal with Russia nor resources to fund Ukraine financially. It is clear that Germany, the sole EU leader and the main negotiator with Russia for the west needs strong US backing to deal with the situation, an indicator that Europe is still far from capable in solving any security challenge in the continent without Russian inclusion. Experts in Europe have stated mooting the idea of having a EU Armed Forces to deal with traditional security threats which were perceived to be improbable after the end of cold war.  The crisis is likely to bring US into direct confrontation/talks with Russia sooner than later.

Ukraine’s crisis is not about Eurasia or Europe but be seen as unfolding of a new world order unlikely to be settled in near future. Russia, through the Ukraine crisis, has challenged US dominance and is firm on its position since the last 15 months. The US and western approach of economic sanctions and isolating Russia politically have failed to achieve the stated goal of making Russian President Vladimir Putin change his course. Now the latest decision to sit down with Putin in Moscow to hammer out some compromise on Ukraine appears nothing less than a political suicide for western leaders vis a vis their stand for the last 15 months. Strategically, this constitutes a US retreat which would have implications globally. 

The signing of  the Minsk II agreement in Feb 2015 which Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia pledged to uphold has little chance of being implemented and has been  criticized for being "highly complicated" and "extremely fragile", and for being very similar to the failed Minsk Protocol[x]. Since the cease fire is often violated the best one can hope for is a stable truce and regular contact between officials. But what is the future if Minsk II also fails or Russia decides to advance further west towards Kharkov or Odessa or does something in the Baltic States that receive military support from their NATO allies? EU, with talks of Britain headed for an exit and Greece’s financial crisis has a long way to go before a calm returns to Europe.

The Ukraine crisis and the response from west has brought about a paradigm shift in Russian foreign policy. From a policy of trying to integrate into the west and become part of the Euro-Atlantic system, it is strengthening its base in Eurasia and pivoting Asia. Launch of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in 2015[xi] effectively means that Russia has been able to keep its close and vital partners- Belarus and Kazakhstan together amidst economic crisis due to sanctions.  A strategic partnership with China and cooperation in defence, energy and infrastructure sectors has helped it to sustain despite economic sanctions. Hosting of BRICS and SCO summits scheduled in Russia in July 2015 will indeed neutralize to a large extent the impact of political sanctions from the west. The recent Sino-Indian Summit talks and India's likely accession to the SCO, Moscow seeks a closer triangular "RIC" cooperation. The presence of a large number of heads of states and foreign contingents for parade at Red Square with Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Pranab Mukherjee of India as guests of honour to mark  the 70^th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe on 09 May 2015 just a day prior to the visit of German Chancellor indicates the political isolation sponsored by west has only a limited relevance. It appears that global focus is shifting towards Asia as the centre for major developments shaping the world.