Security of Indian Diaspora in the Middle East a Challenge: Need Response Mechanism

Creeping ISIS influence in Middle East and Africa has put Indian Diaspora under constant threat of life and property. The changing geo-strategic landscape of Middle East had triggered exodus of Indians from Iraq, Syria, Yemen and part of Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The spread of ISIS and al Qaeda in Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Nigeria will add another dimension to the security of Indian Diaspora in that region. Kidnapping of 39 Indians from Iraq and abduction of four Indians in Libya in the last week of July 2015 has sent shock waves among the entire Indian community residing in these countries. The incidences of attack against Indian community are likely to increase in near future for demand of ransom or as a part of policy of ISIS and“al Qaeda”to attack India indirectly. ISIS has already declared that India is a potential area of their focus and Indians in Middle East and North Africa definitely are easy targets.

It is estimated that approximately five million Indians are in Middle East and North Africa and approximately half a million migrate yearly in search of employment. They account for close to $ 70 billion remittance to India per year. The security threat to Indian Diaspora can lead to exodus of Indians from troubled regions, which in turn will pose serious challenge of mass evacuation and subsequent rehabilitation of displaced population. Such a situation could also impact future prospects for employment and investment in Middle East and North Africa.  The threat to Indian Diaspora could well be part of overall strategy of the ISIS against the so called non-believers; but the fear is that if it is triggered by inimical forces in collusion with “ISIS and al Qaeda” it will have long term implications for India. The role of the Pakistani establishment (ISI) and other inimical forces including Chinese intelligence agencies needs to be watched carefully since collusion between state and non-state actors  aimed at weakening India’s strategic interests in Middle East and Africa is a possibility.

Except the goodwill of some of the host nations, there is hardly any leverage India has to secure the life and prosperity of Indian Diaspora in the troubled region. Most critical at this stage is the security of Indian migrants in Syria, Iraq and Libya. The options are limited and there is a need to work out a frame-work to secure the interests of the Indian community to avert a crisis. The measures which India should take in the short andlong term are:-

• Short Term Measures.

1. Identification of possible flashpoints and vulnerable regions in Middle East and North Africa.
2. Monitoring of the situation and periodic review of nature of threat to Indian Diaspora.
3. Identification of access routes to evacuate Indians from troubled regions at the time of crisis.
4. Arrangements with host nations and regional partners to defuse the crisis if danger to Indian Diaspora is imminent.
5. Contingency planning for logistics support for maritime and air evacuation from safe and secure places.
6. Establishment of linkages with moderate religious groups for resolution of crisis as and when it occurs.
7. Pro-active approach by Indian Embassies and consulates across the region to reach out to Indian citizens to keep them aware and alert.
8. Mechanism to forewarn and issue timely advisories to Indian community with regard to travel, security and movement to safe zones if case of crises .
9. Helplines for vulnerable sections of Indian citizens in crisis.

• Long Term Measures. There is a need to work out a long term solution to deal with the crisis since the vulnerabilities will increase in the foreseeable future:-

1. Initiate a process for international cooperation under UN to form a response mechanism to intervene and secure the lives of susceptible foreign nationals working in unstable regions. The threat to foreign nationals and minority community is across the spectrum and thus there is a need for international effort to deal with such contingencies in a holistic and concerted manner. This will also provide safety and security to the citizen of small and marginal nations. 
2. India should also approach “Organisation of Islamic Cooperation” and “League of Arab States” to work out an arrangement to prevent such crisis.
3. Building power projection capabilities to gain access to the vulnerable section of Indians and also to secure exit points (maritime and air heads) with the help of host nation and regional partners to evacuate the displaced Indian Diaspora.
4. Develop enduring mutual understanding with Iran and Saudi Arabia to facilitate negotiation with Shia and Sunni factions of troubled regions.
5. Bilateral agreement with some of the stable nations in the region to allow temporary relocation of Indian Diaspora before evacuation can be organized from safe zones. 

As an emerging economic and regional power it is an obligation for India to protect its Diaspora and vital strategic and economic interests. India has made investments in Sudan, Libya and Gulf countries and those inimical forces which want to erode Indian interests in the region will endeavour to create a situation of uncertainty by targeting Indian Diaspora and Indian establishments to harm long-term interests of India. It is a serious security challenge and India should prepare itself to deal with this crisis without causing any turbulence or panic.