Arab Spring to Spring Rolls: Lessons for China from Turmoil in West Asia

No one can deny the fact that the Middle East, or West Asiaas some refer to,is currently undergoing the worst time of its existence since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. It has not only engulfed the great Egyptian civilization but parts of North Africa as well. Many believed the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011 to be a blessing, for aregion long suppressed by misrule; but that was not to be. Not that therewas anything wrong with the concept of Arab Spring, but the societies were probably not prepared for the kind of changes it envisaged to usher in.

Did one not see the writing on the wall since the days of regime-change interventions by the powers that be, or has it been a ploy to sow the seeds of ‘Clash of Civilizations’ as had been conceived at a point of time and propagated by some people? It may be too early to say anything for sure, but it does not appear likely that our ‘wise unipolar world’ is simply trying to get out of the situation by calling it a mistake!But should it get involved, would it not bring in the theory of clash of civilizations, particularly if it puts ‘Boots on Ground’?

With hands already full in this region with unresolved issueslike that of Palestine-Israel, now there wasanother staring in the face – the monster-like Da’esh. If this did not complicate West Asia enough, the Russian intervention in Syria did the rest. The role of the International community is still divided on their precise responsibility to fix the problem and  has the potential to spin out of manageable control sooner than later. If one ever had any confidence or the thought process to leave it to regional players to resolve problems of the region, complicated by the International community, the progressively slow outcome of the 34-nation coalition led by Saudi Arab in Yemen should serve as a reminder. But this is not all- the falling oil prices and recession in world economy will only proliferate an ostrich-like attitude of the world towards this problem and allow ISIS to further consolidate its gains. Where does it leave us then?It appears that the State of Da’esh has come into being in the heart of West Asia and is here to stay.

Forecasting the outcome of such events is fraught with danger, but not the lessons that can be learnt from it. One thing that is very clearwhen we boast of globalization, it also contains the rising aspirations of the people towards morefreedom of action and consensus-building in the social structures as also nation states. The days of tight control over individuals or groups, if not with mutual acceptance, is bound to increase pressure and likely to burst out without warning and create ripples with increasing magnitude from the epicenter. Democracies and free societies may not be the best method of governance in the calculations of autocratic regimes, but neither is the fractured social fabric of a nation nor the other alternative forms of governance that have been tried out in the past in keeping up with the evolution of the civilization. Human consciousness is too powerful to be kept confined for too long.

China for one has a lesson here for its one-party rule and ruthless suppression of any dissent amongst its citizens. When the world is moving towards pluralism; China talks of one nation-one language-one people, where 400 million Chinese people are non-Mandarin speaking. Even its policy of ‘One government –Two systems’ has come under strain after elections in Hong Kong.   China is also looking at Taiwan unification as part of its One China policy.It deals with the world like a capitalistic economy but inside the State are the tenants of a communist philosophy. Is it not watching the effects of tight fiscal control now trying to break free asdictated by the world economic matrix? In its fight to uproot corruption, it still is unable to decide whether rule of law should be supreme or the interests of the Party? Therefore, such contradictions do not seem to augur well for a nation aspiring to be a world power; what connects nations besides national interests are also common political aspirations and thinking of its citizens.  One needs to build allies in the world; to be a leader; you needto have followers. If you reach the top alone then you will may end up down soon, because sustenance in the long run alone would then be a problem.

China in its 18^thSession of the Standing Committee of the 12^th National People’s Congress held on 27^th December 2015 has passed a Counter Terrorism Law. While one is at liberty to protect one’snation the way one wants tobased on their perception of security threats, at the same time onemust ensure that such laws are not exploitative in nature. However, the early indication in this case is to the contrary;for instance the provision where there are references in the law to dress code and messages that may ‘create’ social panic,  could well fall in the realm of who is looking at the issue and tend to point fingers towards the Uyghur’s and Tibetans. This in itself may not augur well for the provisions thus mentioned. Added to this is the issue of control of the media as it relates to free reporting during such contingencies wherein nothing can be released directly and all releases must be cleared by the Chinese government or should be from them only; which media is then allowed to carry it to the people for larger circulation.

The current financial meltdown is also likely to caste its shadows on social issues due to insecurities on account of drop in factory production caused by fewer demands, further leading to joblessness. People have by now got used to higher wages and more affluent lifestyles. China could well draw its attention to such issues with a people-centric approach rather than a Party-centric one.It is said that if we do not learn from history; it is bound to repeat itself.

Views expressed by the Author are personal. Author is Distinguished Fellow at CLAWS.