Why Confidence Building Measures and Nuclear Talks Between Powers Matter

Commensurate with the growth of economics comes military might and strategic interest and China is no different to that logic. We have seen the Chinese lead in AIIB, and Chinese and American partnership in the Nuclear summit. However, on broader nuclear relationship between the two giants, a lot more needs to be done. This needs to be done urgently, as it is an interesting time. China is planning on building a maritime nuclear power platform, or multiple nuclear power platforms, which might be used for energy purposes in the South China Sea. Global Times reported that these nuclear power platforms could even sail to remote areas and provide stable power supply, as Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying played down the report as media speculation.

Similarly, recently there are talks of a major changes in Chinese nuclear forces doctrine. As a recent UCS report suggests Chinese armed forces is considering putting its nuclear and strategic command on “hair trigger alert”, something which is only prevalent in the armed forces of United States and Russia. That means that Chinese nuclear forces will be always ready and primed to retaliate. According to the report, the Chinese nuclear policy is based on a typical second strike doctrine, which assumes that in the unlikely scenario of an acute first strike on Chinese mainland, some of the second strike nuclear weapons will survive the assault, and will then be used to retaliate against the enemy. This hair trigger alert is, however, something only used by US and Russian forces, and is a remnant of the Cold war posturing, also known as advanced deterrence.

It is important to understand the concept of nuclear deterrence. On the face of it, it might seem counter intuitive that threatening an adversary with destruction brings peace. But it is the basis of the deterrence theory. China and India have similar nuclear doctrines, of second strike strategy. However, China is the second largest economic power in the world, and is arguably a peer rival of the Unites States. That in turn means that the threat perceptions of China for other powers, as well as other powers of China’s rise, is high and growing, alongside its economic might. Therefore it is very important to understand while it is natural for China to grow its military capability according to its growing interests, the chances of miscalculation between great powers also increases.

In the history of international relations, since the Westphalian state system started, there has only been one instance of a binary bipolar world. While international relations theorists consider bipolarity was the most stable form of polarity, it didn’t overnight become stable. Post Second World War, there was a massive arms race between the Soviet Union and the Unites states, as both the superpowers were trying to navigate a completely new system and trying to find out ways how to coexist in such a tensed scenario. One mistake could lead to the annihilation of a large part of the human race. There were therefore situations of intense tension, like the Cuban missile crisis .

However, with time, eventually the two superpowers established ground rules, from nuclear hotlines, to treaties banishing medium range battlefield ballistic missiles. These confidence building measures helped put a system of checks and verifications in case something went out of hand. For example, during a situation of a glitch in the Russian radar system which showed that United Sates has launched a missile, both sides stayed calm and talked until eventually the glitch was found.

United States and China needs to urgently discuss such measures as there might be situations in the future where tensions might escalate. That is not to say that the US and China are going to conflict, in fact quite the opposite; chances of conflict are extremely less, given the progress the two powers are making; however, the chances of miscalculations remain. It is not difficult to imagine a situation where there is a misunderstanding in the Asia Pacific region, Korean peninsula, or Indian ocean. Urgent discussions to minimize such an eventuality are therefore imperative for both the powers, assuming it is a whole new international order and scenario that is being build up in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Author is a doctoral researcher at the University of Nottingham,UK.Views expressed are personal.