Lahore Attacks: Terror Unlimited?

A deadly attack on a bus carrying the Sri Lankan cricket players on 3rd March 2009, which killed at least eight security personnel and wounded six Sri Lankan players not only threatens Pakistan’s standing in sport, but also has grave implications on an already destabilizing image of the country which is under siege from an insurgency by Al Qaida and the Taliban.

While India and Australia had already refused to play in Pakistan, the Sri Lankan team agreed and was ensured ‘presidential–style’ security. A dozen armed terrorists, mostly in their twenties and wearing bullet proof jackets, attacked the bus transporting the Sri Lankan cricketers with rockets, grenades and assault rifles. Although the terrorists failed to kill or seriously harm the Sri Lankan players, the attack evidently was reasonably well planned, and even well executed. But what is more important is that the attack was carried out in the heart of Lahore, the cultural capital of the country belonging to the Punjabi military elite, and that none of the attackers was killed or caught. The attackers were moving freely with their fully equipped backpacks and were not suspected.  Clearly, the security arrangements were insufficient and lacking. Sri Lanka spinner Muralitharan said “Somehow in this incident there were no police with guns on the bus” which itself projects a major lapse in the security arrangements despite the fact that warnings had been received on the possibility of an attack.

Although Pakistan cannot deny the security lapses and lack of counter surveillance, but the broader issue is that the nation is in a perpetual state of war with itself.  The Lal Masjid massacre, the violent outrage demonstrated by the lawyers, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, increasing suicide bombings, creeping Talibanisation, crippling economy and an uncertain political future due to continued disagreements between the two major political parties, show a wide range of violence which Pakistan is currently facing. Terrorist attack in Lahore is just a continuation of the terror trends in Pakistan.  The terror tactics obviously seem to be evolving and turning more sophisticated. The Mumbai terror attacks, and now Lahore, bring out a new dimension of terror attacks. Suicide bombers, improvised explosive devices and bomb laden vehicles have been used frequently by terrorists. But this time, they executed a full frontal attack that has not been experienced before. These attacks definitely are much more difficult to fight and would require significant transformation of state security systems.

Pakistan’s economy which is already in doldrums and surviving on the foreign aid intravenous will pay a heavy price for this attack. The Pakistani rupee and the main stock exchange dipped as the news of terror attack in Lahore came in. Foreign investment, which is badly needed by the economy even to start crawling, would be deterred further.  IMF loan sanctioned in November last year provided some breathing space to the economy but continued terror attacks would not allow economic recovery. Possible earnings from sports sector and entertainment would remain doubtful for years to come.

It is yet to be determined which terrorist group carried out the attack, although Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaeda and Taliban remain the prime suspects. The agreement signed last month between the TNSM and NWFP government and the enforcement of Sharia in Malakand division including the Swat region have generated restlessness and anger at the legitimisation of Taliban in the region. The agreement offered peace from the Taliban in return. But, the attack in Lahore brings out the loopholes in understanding between the government and the militant groups. Neither the political leadership nor the dominant military seems to have any control over the jihadi/Taliban organisations. The rising insurgency on the North West Frontier border has been a major challenge for the last six years, and despite US efforts and pressures, Pakistan military has failed to produce results in the region. The terror attacks in Lahore show an expansion of the frontiers of terrorism in Pakistan. There seems to be a division in the military and also the ISI on the response to terror outfits. An all-powerful military with a strong intelligence network has failed repeatedly to prevent terror attacks, which are turning more detrimental in nature.

Despite assurance by the military and political leadership in Pakistan, jihadi/Taliban  militants have been able to expand themselves and spread all over the country. Political leadership and the military have to develop a counter strategy for this terror epidemic if Pakistan is to stop itself from transforming into a medieval society with the absence of rule of law.
 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies)