The Drone Strikes: Pakistan-US Relations

The Pakistan-US relation is under tremendous pressure over the issue of terrorism and Pakistan military operations in the tribal areas. The US threat to Pakistan and continued drone strikes has cast a shadow over their relationship. Faisal Shahzad’s arrest and US official statements against Pakistan have generated an intense debate on the nature and direction of the Pakistan-US relationship. The expansion of drone strikes has been signalling a tougher action against Pakistan. The US attitude towards Pakistan and China’s subtle regional policy will considerably affect the nature of the Pakistan-US relationship.

The US officials have threatened Pakistan for “severe consequences”. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton’s statement surprised many in Pakistan. The US Homeland Security Adviser, John Brennan, announced that the US is prepared to “take the fight” to extremists, wherever they may be, including Pakistan. This became evident when press reports appeared on 29-30 May 2010, which disclosed that the US was rehearsing strikes inside Pakistan and has already completed “dry exercise” for unilateral action. The reports further added that the US administration cancelled the exercise after US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, spoke to Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and received an assurance that Pakistan would do its best to prevent extremists from using Pakistani territory. An American newspaper, The Washington Post leaked the news on 29 May 2010 that the US military has reviewed options for unilateral strikes against Pakistan in the event of an ‘extreme’ attack against the US that is traced to this country.

These statements contradict the conciliatory tone of some of the Obama Administration officials like Defence Secretary Robert Gates, and have raised questions on the Pakistan-US relationship. A detailed report on the US plan for unilateral action against Pakistan first appeared in The Washington Post on 29 May 2010. The report clearly indicated that the US plan was provoked by three factors –alleged support of Al-Qaeda by some elements of Pakistani establishment, to pressurise Pakistan to launch operation against the Taliban in North Waziristan, and compel Pakistan to share more intelligence with the US.

However, the threatening statements were followed by the visits of high-ranking US officials to Islamabad. US National Security Adviser Gen James Jones and CIA Director Leon Panetta held a meeting with President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Chief of the Army Staff Gen Parvez Kayani on 19 May 2010. In their talks with President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani, Gen Kayani and others they linked the Shahzad affair with the militants and put maximum pressure on Pakistan to launch an operation in North Waziristan. According to them, FATA was the fertile ground to produce the likes of Shahzad and was therefore necessary to be eliminated. The “key ally” status which the former President Bush had bestowed on Pakistan, is in the process of degradation due to Pakistan’s inability to fight against terrorism.

There is an intense debate in Pakistan on the contour of the Islamabad-Washington relationship. The people in Pakistan have been questioning US intentions and Islamabad’s relationship with Washington. Pakistani officials have been trying to placate people’s sentiment at home as well as US displeasure. Moreover, the opponents of the war in FATA and in other tribal areas find their position vindicated. They have argued that the US should not be trusted since they recall its conduct in the 1980s following the Afghan War. The former army chief, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg does not trust the US and suspects US intentions. Shireen M. Mazari, editor, The Nation, daily newspaper, has been arguing the US intention and aims about Pakistan. Shireen M Mazari like Gen Beg has been questioning the relevance of the Pakistan-US relationship. A section in Pakistan does not trust the US.

It is generally argued in Pakistan that Al-Qaeda is the problem of the US, and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its growing network of militant outfits is the problem of Pakistan. Will the US expand unilateral action in Pakistan’s tribal areas and in the heartland against Al-Qaeda, whose members have been conveniently termed ‘non-state actors’ by the Pakistan government?

In 2009, the US had threatened to expand the drone attacks in Balochistan around Quetta to target the Afghan Taliban’s Quetta Shura. But this option was not exercised. However, the drone attacks in Khyber Agency on 15 May 2010, the first ever in close proximity to Peshawar, confirm that the US is implementing its threats of widening the drone campaign in Pakistan. There were about 50 drone strikes in 2009 that killed around 708 people. In 2010, it has already witnessed 35 drone attacks that caused 350 civilian deaths.

Pakistan-US relations have been passing through numerous challenges and have witnessed trust deficit between them. Meanwhile, China has been playing a subtle regional policy and drawing Pakistan towards it. The deterioration in Pakistan-US relations will have wider implications for the region as a whole.

Dr Shah Alam is a Research Fellow at CLAWS

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).