India and Europe: The dynamics of actualising a multi-polar world order

In a perceptive article in the Indian Express (06 Dec 10 issue), C. Rajamohan highlighted the geo-strategic dynamic that is shaping the emerging global order. This is characterised by the relative decline of the USA and the unexpectedly rapid rise of China. The acceleration in the rate of China’s rise is directly linked to the global financial crisis and China’s perceived rate of military build up. China finds the US bogged down militarily in Afghanistan and in steep economic decline. This has brought about a paradigm shift in the Chinese Strategic stance of hiding its capabilities and biding its time. In 2009, China began to showcase its military capabilities and in 2010, it began asserting itself aggressively in its geopolitical backyard in East Asia, South China Sea and along its land borders with India.

The essence of any Indian Grand- strategy must be centered on preventing the emergence of a new Bi-Polar order focused on the USA and China. Brezhinski, the former US National Security Advisor, was a strong proponent of such a new Bi-Polar order that would have completely sidelined India and in fact, given China the mandate to oversee India-Pak relations in South- Asia. Fortunately for India, President Obama’s initial overtures towards China to actualize such a Bi-Polar world order were rudely rebuffed by an ascendant China who saw it as a sign of American weakness. China thereafter turned very assertive and fairly hostile in its geo-political backyard. This led to serious re-think in the US and the Obama visit was a direct spin-off of China’s rising truculence. President Hu-jintao has since visited the US to mend the bridges. India must therefore consciously exert itself to ensure that there is no regression to a new  Bi-Polar world order. To that extent, it would be in its interests to facilitate the rise of alternative centres of power like Russia, Europe and Japan. India had  provided this crucial assistance to Russia by heavy purchases of Russian arms that helped the Russian arms industry to survive the Soviet collapse. India has now taken this partnership to the next logical level by partenering with Russia in the joint development of futuristic military technologies like the Fifth Generation Stealth fighter and advanced Cruise missiles. Europe has traditionally been an advanced centre for military technology. Europe is now facing economic turbulence. It would be in India’s own interests therefore to shore up the European military Industrial Complex by purchase of technology and even more , seek European partnership for building an Indian indigenous Military –Industrial complex in the Private sector. We must graduate from a pure buyer-seller relationship to one of Joint development and partnership in R&D. All this will help us to gain autarky in critical weapon systems- especially in combat aviation. An Indo-US partnership against a rising and aggressive China sounds very attractive in theory. In practice there are too many strings attached to US supplied weaponry. To that extent the European and Russian alternatives seem more reliable and hassle free. Shoring up these two power centers will directly facilitate any India Grand -strategy of ensuring a multi- polar world order. In a situation of economic down-turn we must put our money preferentially towards ensuring that alternative power centres like Europe , Russia and Japan are strengthened in preference to the two emerging and established super-powers

In the Indo-China-USA triad, India is the weakest link. Any sudden deterioration of the Sino-American relations or any future collusion between them could severely impact on India. To that extent, it is essential for India to ensure that a new bipolar order based on China and USA does not emerge. It would be in our geo-strategic interests to promote multi-polarity. Deeper relations with like-minded nations like France would help to usher in precisely such multi-polarity. Towards that end, President Nicholas Sarkozy’s visit last year was a welcome initiative. France has always been supportive of India and has been a valued source of military technology and now Nuclear Reactors. The British Prime Ministers earlier visit was also a welcome development that heralded India’s importance as an emerging power centre and key swing state of the 21st century.

The new development is that at the Lisbon Conference in Nov 2010, the North American Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries as a collectivity have come to the clear conclusion, that a rising India can play a very useful and constructive role at the global level in managing the threat from non-state actors; and in helping stabilise Afghanistan; as also help in the free and unfettered access to the global commons. NATO has significantly diluted its adversarial stand against Russia,. A realization of its weakened economic position underlines the wisdom of not adding to its security concerns by provoking the Russians. It equally provides the rationale for a much closer and functional strategic partnership with Russia.

The economic downturn in Europe gives India unprecedented opportunities to seek French and European assistance in getting its military industries going in the private sector. We must urgently move beyond the buyer-seller relationship and seek joint development of weapon systems  on the Brahmos and fifth generation fighters model. We could share the costs of research in futuristic weapon systems and technologies and help the NATO countries reduce costs by off-shoring production to India because of tie-ups with our private sector at 49% (or if needed greater) equity participation. Selecting European contenders, say for the MRCA competition, could be a step in this direction

This is a golden opportunity to get the Indian Military Industrial Complex going in our private sector. India must coordinate with Europe in other fields also. The most important is Afghanistan. India could encourage the European/NATO countries  to develop Iranian access routes to Afghanistan as an alternative to Pakistan and Central Asian routes. This would ease Pakistan’s stranglehold on the US-ISAF Supply Lines. The Pakistani Military-ISI Complex misjudged American and European stamina to stay the course itself in Afghanistan. There is a clear realization in Washington and European capitals about Pakistan’s very self-serving agenda and irrational delusions of grandeur that ill suits a near defunct and failing economy. There is a realistic limit beyond which this sinking state cannot be kept afloat. Hence the need to remove fragile eggs from the Pakistani basket and lean more on a far more viable option of a democratic and economically rising India.

To maximize opportunity costs, India must seek French, British and European (NATO) collaborations to build its own Military Industrial Complex in the private sector. This will lead to a truly multi-polar global environment and avoid a US-Saudi Arabia type relationship of pathetic surrogacy and technological dependence that could make India highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the US-China relationship. There is a clear and pressing need to define our desired end-states at the Grand -strategic level and then harmonise our initiatives in diverse fields to actualize this broader vision . India’s interests demand the emergence of a Multi-Polar world order and this translates into an increasing partnership with Russia and Europe even as we deepen ties with America. This will maximize our autarky and keep us safe from the vagaries of the US- China relationship.

Maj Gen GD Bakshi, SM, VSM (Retd) is Associate Editor of Indian Military Review (IMR)

Courtesy: Defence and Security Alert, March 2011

http://www.dsalert.org/march-2011/202-india-and-europe-dynamics-of-a-multipolar-world

(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies)