Afghanistan War: Recent Developments and future perspectives

The picture of the Afghan War is a mix of hope and despair; more of despair than hope because there has been increased violence during the recent past. There was a lot of euphoria with the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Operation Geronima conducted deep inside Pakistan on 02 May 2011 by the US Navy Seals. This operation will not only be considered as remarkable in the US Special Forces history but also be counted as the most significant achievement in the fight against terror. This was soon followed up by the unconfirmed news of the killing of Kashmera another Al Qaeda deadest leader in a drone attack. The latest success has been the arrest of Haji Malik Khan, an important leader of the Haqqani Group and also believed to be the brother –in-law of Jalaludin as also the killing of Anwar al Awliki, a Yemini born terrorist in another drone attack.. While rejoicing over these achievements by the US Army and its NATO allies, one cannot overlook the up tick in violence by the Taliban in Afghanistan including multiple attacks in Kabul. In this context, the attacks on the British Council, the Inter Continental hotel, the Afghan Defence Ministry and the US Embassy itself. The Taliban were also successful in the elimination of four of the closest advisers of Hamid Karzai including his half brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai and Gulam Haider Hameedi, the city Mayor of Kandhahar. The most damaging was the elimination of Buhranuddin Rabbani, the former president of Afghanistan.  He was killed in a suicide attack by the Haqqani Group.

The second major development was the end of the process of reconciliation with the Taliban. As it is there were impediments to this process because of the reluctance of the Haqqani Group to participate. They were willing to do so only on their terms which were unacceptable. They therefore brought the process itself to a sudden end by killing Buhranuddin Rabbani, the leading figure of the Peace Initiative. With the elimination of Rabbani, Hamid Karzai gave up all hopes of reconciliation making any further headway. In desperation he said that the only option left was to negotiate directly with Pakistan as in his perception the Taliban could not agree to any terms of reconciliation without the consent of Pakistan.

Lastly, there was a soaring of relations between the US and Pakistan. The first salvo was fired by Admiral Mike Mullen who while deposing before the Senate Committee accused the Pakistan army and the ISI for providing full support to the Haqqani Group. He also blamed Pakistan of pursuing terrorism as an instrument of State policy.  This sentiment was echoed by Hillary Clinton , the Secretary of State when she warned Pakistan that it could not rear a wild dog in its backyard that would bite only its neighbours. Yuosuf Raja Gilani , the Prime Minister of Pakistan retorted by saying, “ While the US cannot live with Pakistan, it could also not do without them” .During all the talking tough on both sides, the relations between the US and Pakistan were at their lowest ebb. Before this could be assumed as double speak by the US, Barak Obama , the US President made a strong statement in which he signaled that the US was ready to part its ways with Islamabad if Pakistan military did not mend its ways of using terrorism as a policy tool.
 
In light of the aforesaid developments, it would be axiomatic to assume that the War in Afghanistan is not going as per the expectations of the US and its NATO allies. Maj Gen Bill May Ville, former Chief of Operations for Gen Mac Crystal has summed up the situation when he said,” It is not going to look like a win, smell like a win or taste like a win”. Thus with violence going unabated; Pakistan pursuing its policy of playing the double game, the growing mistrust between the US and Pakistan as a trust worthy ally is likely to increase further. The domestic compulsion of the US to thin out its troops and the Afghan Security Forces not being fully ready to secure Afghanistan after 2014; the situation will continue to be fragile and unstable in Afghanistan.
 
Under these circumstances, the conflict in Afghanistan will further become protracted with the country becoming a failed state under feckless leadership plagued by chronic insurgency. If this situation is to be avoided and the US wants an honourable exit from Afghanistan without its once again becoming the epicenter of terrorism, then the-
 
• The US must bring Pakistan on board and ensure that it dismantles the jihadi infrastructure that exists inside Pakistan territory. It must continue to carryout Counter Terrorist operations and launch increased number of drone attacks aimed at eliminating the Al Qaeda and the Taliban leadership.
• Afghanistan must put its house in order and ensure proper governance
• India must fast pace the training and equipping of the Afghan Security forces and work together with the US.

Maj Gen Samay Ram, UYSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) is a defence analyst based in New Delhi
 
(The views expressed in the article are that of the author and do not represent the views of the editorial committee or the centre for land warfare studies).