“There never was a good war or a bad peace.”
The past year witnessed a dramatic turnaround in the security situation both in Jammu and Kashmir and in the violence affected states of northeast India where sustained operations by the Army have resulted in the security situation assuming near normalcy. While the downward spiral in violence has been visible over the last few years, the year 2011 saw the lowest levels of violence in decades of conflict. In Jammu & Kashmir, the previous year saw a total of 183 fatalities, of which 119 were terrorists and 34 were civilians. 30 security forces personnel became martyrs to the cause of peace. Statistics for earlier years show a total of 1,739 fatalities in 2005, 1,116 in 2006, 777 in 2007, 541 in 2008 and 375 in both 2009 and 2008. Clearly, the road to peace does not now seem that desolate or long.
The northeast too presents a picture of optimism with the fatality figures dropping to 247 in 2011. Of these, 132 were terrorists; civilians accounted for 80 dead and 35 were security force personnel. When viewed in the context of 322 fatalities suffered in 2010, 852 in 2009 and over a thousand in the previous two years, the northeast too presents a picture of hope for the early restoration of normalcy.
The near return to normalcy can be specifically attributed to the continuous pressure exerted by the army against militants and terrorists of all hues over the years and not just in 2011. The courage and commitment of the officers and men deployed in very harsh and trying conditions is praiseworthy. Unremitting operations have sapped the will and morale of terrorist groups but the battle is by no means over. In J&K, the attempts by militants to infiltrate have not abated with over a hundred infiltration attempts being made in the year gone by. All these bids were actively supported, aided and backed by Pakistan. That most of these bids were detected and foiled redounds to the credit of the units manning our borders. But it would be naïve to assume a hundred per cent success rate in anti-infiltration operations. The small groups that manage to get through contribute to the residual levels of violence existing in the state.
In its attempts to infiltrate terrorists into India, the Pakistan army has no qualms in violating the ceasefire agreement between the two countries which came into force in November 2003. As per some reports, there are an estimated 2,500 trained militants, spread across 42 terror camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, which Pakistan is desperately trying to push into India. The ceasefire violations are aimed to distract the army and push the terrorists in. Though the situation is well under control, there is no room for complacency as reports keep emanating of cross-border camps for terrorists being reactivated to induct fresh batches of militants into the country.
Green shoots of peace are also emerging from the northeast where, buoyed by the improving law and order situation, many leading Indian corporate houses are showing interest in the region. There can be no better indicator for normalcy than major industrial houses like the Tata Group willing to invest in the region. However, with scores of insurgent organisations existing in the northeast, with divergent demands ranging from secession to autonomy to clamour for special rights, the situation will continue to require firm handling by the army and deft initiatives by the political and administrative class for conflict resolution. The location of the eight northeastern Indian States itself is part of the reason why it has always been a hotbed of militancy with trans-border ramifications. The region shares highly porous and sensitive frontiers with Tibet in the north, Myanmar in the east, Bangladesh in the southwest and Bhutan to the northwest. Most of these insurgent groups operate with trans-border linkages, and strategic alliances among them.
The army’s success both in J&K and in the northeast could be attributed to its dual focus on intelligence-based operations and specific targeting of the terrorist leadership. This, in conjunction with a very effective outreach programme towards the local population and Sadbhavana programmes in all areas where the army is deployed, has contributed to the creation of a climate where the political and administrative process has been enabled to function with reasonable effectiveness. Significant progress made on the political and administrative front contributes to the success of operations by the army which, in turn, further reinforces the political process. This synergy must be maintained over the next few years to ensure lasting stability in the region.
For India’ phenomenal growth story to continue, the prospects of a lasting peace will do wonders for the overall state of the economy and could well propel India’s growth into double digit figures. The army has an important role to play to see that such a situation eventually comes about in the not too distant future. But the political and administrative leadership too must seize the moment and show the sagacity and wisdom which can lead to conflict resolution. We must remember that while the road to conflict is fraught with danger, it is at least one that is clearly visible. The path to peace for most parts lies hidden, often concealed among tangled thorns. It is the latter road that the Indian state must find and traverse.
Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch (Retd) is Additional Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.
Courtesy: The Indian Express, 15 January 2012
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