Myanmar�s Economic Liberalisation: Security Implications for India

Agreement between India and Myanmar on the Sittwe port and Inland water Transport (IWT) project or KMMTT as was signed on April 02, 2008. The project entails shaping a trade route from Sittwe port through the Kaladan River to Paletwa and thereafter by road to the landlocked northeast (Mizoram). Project activities include development of a port for receiving ships upto 20,000 DWT and ancillary facilities at Sittwe, improvements to 157 Km of inland waterway of the Kaladan River, construction of two IWT terminals (Sittwe and Paletwa), supply of six 300 DWT self propelled barges and construction 130 Km of road from the IWT terminal at Paletwa to the Indo-Myanmar border. KMMTT when operational will also provide connectivity between Indian Ports on the eastern seaboard and Sittwe for bilateral trade. 

 

Kyaukphyu deep sea port is being constructed by China at the Than Zit river mouth on Maday Island. The project commenced in 2009 and will have, significantly, 91 berths including capability to berth 300,000 ton oil tankers.  China and Myanmar signed an MOU in May 2010 to develop the proposed land route from Kunming to Kyaukphyu. China intends to develop Kyaukphyu as a transit center for goods destined for India, Bangladesh and southern Myanmar.  The overall road link between Myanmar and China is outlined as Kunming-Mandalay-Kyaukphyu-Sittwe. China, in a move to increase its presence in the region, has also offered to develop a deep water port in Bangladesh at Sonadia, near Cox’s Bazar. 

 

The Myanmar government has approved a huge port and industrial estate development at Dawei, for which the Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited (ITD) is a major contractor. The total project cost likely to be US$58 billion and is the first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Myanmar. The initiative behind building a deep sea port at Dawei is to find alternate sea-routes to the Malacca Strait.  Once completed a total of 25 vessels ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 DWT will be able to berth at 22 wharfs simultaneously in the Dawei port complex, which would have a handling capacity of 100 million metric tons of goods a year. In addition Myanmar has invited FDI to augment its existing port facilities at Yangon and Thilawa.

 

It is difficult to estimate at this stage the capacity utilisation of the port infrastructure being built given the politico-economic imponderables; however, the coming decade is likely to see a tremendous increase in maritime traffic in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea from the presently low levels. While operations at the Sittwe port are likely to result in increase in the traffic from the Indian ports on the eastern seaboard, operations at Kyaukphyu and Dawei port will cause an increase in to and fro international (including Chinese) traffic through the Bay of Bengal to the West and through the Andaman Sea to the East. This multifold increase in maritime traffic and the strategic importance, the dependant nations will accord to their shipping will drastically alter the security climate in the region. It will also bring on to India the responsibility to keep the region free from piracy and maritime terrorism and need for greater surveillance and patrolling of its coastal waters specially of the Andaman and Nicobar islands. There would also be concerns regarding environment and habitat conservation in these islands.

 

Infrastructure projects are also sensitive to local resources, labour and security issues. KMMTT’s location in the Rakhine state, one of the ethnic conflict zones in Myanmar, poses some tricky problems for India. An estimated 800,000-strong Rohingya Muslim minority of Myanmar live in Rakhine. The northern part of Rakhine state is the scene of decades old turmoil between the Muslim Rohingyas and the Buddhist Rakhines. The immediate neighbour Bangladesh is already home to about 300,000 Rohingya refugees. Only about a tenth of these refugees live in two official refugee camps in Cox’s Bazaar, while the rest have mingled with the host population. Latest in the series of clashes between the two communities has ended in declaration of a state of emergency in the Rakhine state on 10 June 2012. The feud between the communities is bitter; positions deeply entrenched with the government at Naypyidaw backing the Buddhist Rakhines. Rohingya’s links to extremist groups has not helped the situation. The violence could have ramifications on the Myanmar-Bangladesh and Myanmar-Thailand relations. India too has been under pressure from UNCHR to accept Rohingya refugees and has avoided the issue by granting them long term visas. Ms Suu Kyi in her address to the British parliament on 22 June 2012 put the situation in perspective. Referring to the need of people to preserve their national or ethnic identity, she said “political dialogue and political settlement must be given precedence over short-term economic development. If differences remain unresolved, if basic aspirations remain unfulfilled, there cannot be an adequate foundation for sustainable development of any kind- economic, social or political.”

 

 

Views expressed are personal