The Victory of Barack Obama: What it Means for India?

 

Pannelists:

Ambassador Lalit Mansingh, Former Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to the United States

Professor Christopher Raj, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Mr Gautam Adhikari, Editorial Advisor, Times of India

Mr Ted Osius, Political Minister Councillor, US Embassy

 

Moderator: Professor Baladas Ghoshal, Centre for Policy Research

 

Ambassador Lalit Mansingh: 

 

Ambassador Lalit Mansingh began by expressing his apprehensions about the likelihood of the change coming to the US. It is premature to have any meaningful discussion on such a topic as Obama would have to address several important domestic as well as international issues like economic recession, NPT, FMCT, global warming, and climate change. Therefore during the initial few months India will not figure in the priority list of the Obama’s administration. 

 

India and Indian community in the US has become indispensable for the US administration as well as the business community. Pointing towards increasing significance of India to the US, he said that for the first time in the US history, India figured prominently in the presidential election campaign of both the candidates. The good news for India is that Joe Biden, Vice president of the US is a good friend of India. 

 

Obama’s view about India can be taken from three major sources; what he has written about India, what he has said about India in his speeches and what his advisors think of India. His letter dated September 23, 2008, written to PM Manmohan Singh shows his support for the 123 agreement and his willingness to continue the strategic partnership with India. George W Bush is the most India friendly president ever. Ambassador Mansingh expressed his hope that under Obama the bilateral cooperation in different areas will be doubled. 

 

Obama has agreed to sign Kyoto Protocol which is going to be in India’s interest. During his campaign Obama had stressed that he would penalise US companies which are outsourcing jobs out of the US and will reward the companies which will be creating more jobs for US citizens. This could be done through better education and training to the younger generation. Obama so far has refrained from taking a tough stand on the Kashmir issue. He appears to favour facilitation than mediation, which was agreed upon during Jaswant-Talbott talks. Ambassador Mansingh said that there is no need for India to panic after Obama takes over as the US president. 

 

Ambassador Mansingh feels that John McCain’s policies would have had led India into confrontationist situations while dealing with major powers like Russia and China. During his election campaign, McCain said that he would kick Russia out of the G-8 and make space for countries like India. He also supported the idea of creation of league of democracies. On the contrary, Obama’s world view suits India better. India-US relations have witnessed a sea change and there is no cause for anxiety for anyone. 

 

Ted Osius:

 

Ted Osius said that in the recently held elections, American people had voted decisively. India and the US are natural allies. Obama acknowledges the importance of India. He is very much influenced by Gandhian philosophy and he had even put a portrait of Mahatama Gandhi in his Senator’s office. Ted Osius also mentioned the importance of the September 23 letter of Obama to Manmohan Singh. In his letter Obama mentioned that India and the US have many commonalities like shared interests, values, commitment to democracy and common threats. Overwhelming support for the nuclear deal in the US reflects all these commonalities. 

 

He emphasised the renewed stand on Afghanistan where interests of both the countries intersect. The Gulf of Aden which attracts attention and concerns of the world community is another area where cooperation is required. Obama’s advisors are focusing on India which is multi-cultural, multi-ethnic country and can provide effective leadership in Asia. Pointing at the future of India-US relations he said that Obama’s administration can work together with India to provide innovative solutions to global problems. There are two major determinants of bilateral cooperation between the US and India. One is practical and entails shared concern for handling terrorism and the second is ideological factor which involves the US strategy of creating multiple centers of influence in Asia so that the rising influence of China can be checked. 

 

India-US relations are moving in the right direction and significant amount of progress has been made in several areas including strategic cooperation and trade. Recent Indian moon mission, Chandrayaan-1, carried two instruments of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Therefore, as far as strengthening the bilateral cooperation is concerned even sky is not the limit. 

 

Professor Christopher Raj:

 

Professor Christopher Raj said that looking at the changing political scenario in the US from an academic’s perspective, the leadership in the US can be categorised into imperial presidency and congressional activism. The style of governance and the nature of the administration make the state either a national security state or a human security state. The US under Bush is the best example of national security state while under the leadership of Bill Clinton, it was human security state. Clinton administration was very much influenced by the civil society. He even went on to the extent of banning landmines under the persistent pressure of the civil society. During the Cold War communism was seen as a national security threat which is being replaced by terrorism now. India in the present context is a national security state. 

 

Professor Raj said that Obama’s ordinary background, and comparatively lower level of exposure and experience to handle the affairs in the US administration would not be a hindrance in his emergence as an ultimate decision maker. During the election campaign he proved his critics wrong. His position as the president and the nature of the US administration under his leadreship – national security or human security – can be finally confirmed if he is able to introduce amendments to the Patriot Act. Owing to the vested interest of the US in Iraq mainly because of the oil, instead of immediately withdrawing US troops Obama might involve multilateral agencies like the UN.  That’s why getting rid of the national security state wont be a cake walk for him. 

 

Pointing towards the emergence of India and China as major economic and strategic powers and Obama’s policies towards both the countries, he said that all the countries are heading in the right direction. He questioned US intentions in providing arms technology to China and Bush’s statement declaring China as a competitor. He raised an important question; will Obama be able to change India-US relationship? 

 

The victory of Obama is because of “Obama phenomenon,” which means a black (African-American) person with humble background occupying White House. This reflects a significant change in democracy. For the first time a non-white could rise to the highest level. Under Obama’s leadership the Asia-Africa-balance might be maintained. Obama as the president-elect will enjoy 100 days honeymoon and much remains to be seen once he occupies US president’s office. 

 

Gautam Adhikari:

 

Gautam Adhikari in his presentation tried to answer three main questions; What does Obama’s victory mean for India-US bilateral relations? What does Obama’s victory mean for South Asia? What does Obama’s victory mean for the US and the world?

 

The situation in the US has changed. The Indian community which includes people of Indian origin has soared to 2 million in numbers. The community has emerged as one of the most powerful and the richest ethnic group in the US.  The Indian community played a critical role in getting the nuclear deal through. However, it will not be smooth sailing for Obama to get Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) passed in the US congress. India has refused to sign these treaties. Adhikari believes that it might turn out to be merely campaign rhetoric as economic decisions are influenced by several factors. It is next to impossible for any US president to ignore India at this stage.

 

Commenting on the outsourcing controversy, he said that corporate lobbies are so powerful and influential that no president can on his own ban it. Obama has suggested appointing a special envoy for the Kashmir issue. In 1998 Clinton became the first US president to visit India and Pakistan after 22 years. He spent 5 days in India and only 5 hours in Pakistan. The track record of the democrats shows that during the Kargil War, Nawaz Sharif was told to withdraw troops. There are definitely more non-proliferation hawks in the democratic fold in the US. But it remains difficult to say whether the same trend will continue or it will be reversed. 

 

Anticipating Obama’s policies in South Asia he said that Afghanistan must be pacified. Obama will most likely continue with what US has already begun. Obama has backed away a bit on the question of withdrawal from Iraq. Indian cooperation will remain important for the US. 

 

In the US, demographic and cultural change is happening for quite some time now. Proportion of white population has come down to 74 percent from 85 percent in the last 25 years. He termed the increasing influence of the various cultures including Chinese, Indian and Arabic as a cultural earthquake. This impact is so much that it has brought a drastic change in the US. Obama is not African-American (offspring of the African people who were brought to the US as slaves). In fact his father willingly came to the US to pursue higher studies and eventually he married a white American woman. Obama got the support of only 50 to 60 per cent African-Americans while he was running for the Democratic Party’s nomination as a presidential candidate. The rest supported Hillary Clinton. American’s behaviour towards the rest of the world is most likely to change. Bush-Cheney administration was criticised for having a biased approach towards some regions and communities. Adhikari expressed optimism that Obama can restore the lost credibility of the US which at this moment appears like more hope than reality. 

 

In the end he raised a question, is an Obama possible in India? He said that the difference lies in the fact that India has a parliamentary system and even a nominated member can hold the Prime Minister’s chair. There are several domestic realities like regional, linguistic, religious and caste barriers which would militate against anybody trying to do an Obama in India. Obama did not contest to seek revenge for any particular community. In fact, he was criticised as being elitist in his approach. In India because of all these reasons, anybody emerging as Obama appears difficult.  

 

Conclusion: 

 

The Bush administration had laid down a strong foundation for the US-India relationship and the US president Obama is not going to alter the present course of dialogue and developments. He has expressed his support for the nuclear deal and sounds quite positive on signing CTBT. His team includes well known friends of India like Joe Biden. The relationship between both the countries is likely to improve. Obama’s victory has also set high political standards for all the democratic countries. It would be beneficial for India, if our politicians can emulate his example. 

 

 

(Report prepared by Dr Rajesh Kapoor, Associate Fellow, CLAWS)