Threats and Challenges for the Indian Army: Trends and Responses

General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a seminar on “Threats and Challenges for the Indian Army: Trends and Responses” to commemorate its Raising Day on January 14, 2009 at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) Auditorium at New Delhi. The Keynote address was delivered by the Chief of the Army Staff, General Deepak Kapoor, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, ADC.  General Kapoor also released two books published by CLAWS – Bridge over the River Meghna: The Dash to Dhaka by Maj Gen Ashok Kalyan Verma (Retd) and Assam: Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge by Col Anil Bhat (Retd) – as well as the Winter 2008 issue of the CLAWS Journal. The seminar was chaired by Gen Shankar Roychowdhury, PVSM (Retd), former COAS. The main speakers were Lt Gen V K Kapoor, PVSM (Retd), Shri A K Doval former Director IB, Lt Gen V G Patankar PVSM, UYSM, VSM (Retd) and Maj Gen G D Bakshi, AVSM, VSM (Retd). The seminar was attended by a large number of officers as well as by the members of the strategic community.

Opening Remarks
In his welcome address, Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director, CLAWS, briefly stated the aims and objectives of CLAWS. He said that CLAWS plans to commemorate its Raising Day one day before the Army Day each year by holding a seminar on a strategic issue of significance for the army, the strategic community and the nation.

Inaugural Address General Deepak Kapoor PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, ADC, COAS
The COAS began by lauding the achievements of CLAWS in the short time since it was raised and wished it good luck for its endeavours.

The COAS highlighted various conventional and non-conventional threats to national security and dwelt particularly on the internal security challenges in various forms like proxy wars, insurgency, militancy, illegal immigration, cyber attacks, counterfeit currency, narcotics trafficking, propaganda and environmental degradation. He stated that Naxal violence is a law and order problem that needs to be tackled at state level. He also spoke about emerging threats from state and non-state actors in the form of Fourth Generation warfare.

The COAS expressed the view that the changing world scenario has created a new threat paradigm which poses complex challenges to national security. In future the army will have to deal with multi-front obligations which will include conventional warfare, proxy war, terrorism, insurgency, border management, disaster relief and humanitarian activities. All of these threats and challenges will need to be factored in while developing an effective defence planning mechanism to maintain a battle ready and relevant army. Therefore, a reassessment of the nature of threats is needed in order to respond to them in meaningful manner. The key areas that require further deliberation are operational preparedness for conventional war, low intensity conflict operations, countering urban terrorism, transformation of the army into a modern and versatile force, jointmanship, and leadership skills to face future challenges.

He complimented CLAWS for taking the lead by organising the seminar and expressed the view that the deliberations would be fruitful in advancing understanding of future threats and challenges so as to be able to search for the right responses to counter these in the rapidly changing strategic scenario.

Lt Gen V. K. Kapoor:  Conventional Threats and Challenges
The main issues today are the disputed borders with Pakistan and China and the need for deterrence, energy crises that may give rise to resource wars, non-conventional threats that slow down the nation building process, and threats from climate change that will inundate coastal regions. The global and regional challenges faced by India include radical extremism and militancy. Moreover, almost all the global hot spots, i.e. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Palestine and Myanmar are within India's area of strategic interest. China's rapid economic rise, military modernisation and build up and the likely return of Russia to great power status are issues that straddle India’s strategic landscape.

In addition to this, challenges which impact specifically upon the armed forces, other than military threats from traditional opponents are: defence of India’s island territories; security of off shore and on shore assets; security of a large and unprotected coastline; internal dissent and illegal immigration in the northeast; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and advanced delivery platforms; global terrorism by state and non-state actors; urban warfare; and, military aid for internal security.

To deal effectively with these challenges, India needs to maintain conventional land and air capabilities that provide deterrence in the form of a modernised military armed with RMA technologies; rapid reaction forces; Special Forces; missile and anti-missile and unmanned warfare capabilities; effective surveillance, including from space; cyber attack and capabilities for waging psychological and media wars. Some units will have to be specially trained for urban warfare.

Lt Gen V G Patankar: Sub-conventional Threats and Challenges
There are four major internal security threats faced by India. These include insurgency in the North-east, proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir, Naxalism and terrorism. The issue of Naxalism does not get enough attention from the mainstream media. Even the debate around the Mumbai terror attacks and India’s response appears to have taken a backseat. India as a nation has wrongly organised its priorities. Terrorism is only a method that aims to achieve other ends.

Various other challenges add fuel to the fires mentioned above. These include demographic invasion through illegal migration, subversion of sovereignty, social fault lines, developmental disparities, urban-rural divide and religious extremism. Climate change may also trigger future conflict situations, terrorism is an invasion of sovereignty, disparities feed divisive ideologies and religious fundamentalism of every type is dangerous for the country. The catalysts that aid this process are many. The state approach of managing the problem as against eliminating it helps vested interests. The weak response of the state helps appeasement and vote bank politics. The new challenges include information/ cyber warfare and economic warfare.  These challenges are serious and amount to war by other means. Complacency will increase the extent of harm caused.

The forecast looks dismal, as the minimalist approach tends to harm the national interest, even as acts of commission are better than the acts of omission. Basically, one cannot kill an idea unless it is replaced by another. We need to avoid hitting at the branches and address the core issues if we are serious about solving the problems. However, there is also scope for optimism in globalisation, media activism and revolutionary methods like Right to Information that are compelling the government into swift action by creating awareness among the people.

In future, India must ensure self reliance in policy by taking small but firm steps, shed the Third World attitude, back actions with economic and military muscle, bide our time and act when it is ready for action as well as consequences thereof. There is also no need to be apologetic for being big and strong. Another issue is of building capability based military forces as against threat based ones as it will help in the longer run. We need to encourage attitude of being ready to prove ability and strength that should become characteristic of the Indian responses. Lt Gen Patankar also highlighted that the military needs to be prepared for low-level short and swift actions even as it is ready for major war situations. Rapidly delivered punitive action should become the cornerstone of India’s policy.

Shri A K Doval: Sub-conventional Threats and Challenges
Most of the countries have failed since World War II because of internal issues. India has multiple fault lines that can create instability for the country. The threats faced by the country have increased more than the ability to counter those threats and the gap between the two has widened. The three institutions of the state – military, police and the judiciary – are all designed to deal with certain types of problems. However, the problems faced today are of a very different kind. We do not have territorial jurisdiction over the acts committed in the country as the roots of the events are outside. This also limits the use of intelligence even if we have enough of it. Moreover, the judiciary gives the benefit of doubt to the accused further complicating the issue. The Judiciary does not try to find the truth but judges a case based on the available evidence, which may be incomplete.

The civil society is both an instrument and a victim of terrorism; this tends to militates against the state when the state tries to act. If one has to find an answer to the issues based on mathematical modeling, it will be outside the scope of law. The aim should be to gather intelligence, act on it in the national interest and if there is a conflict between national interest and personal liberty, ensure the former shall prevail. The ability to wage covert operations has been developed as an act of war. Covert action capability includes media, a political front, an armed wing and intelligence support. The separatists have done this successfully in Jammu and Kashmir. India needs to develop a cohesive covert capability. The state today feels the need for a covert capability but cannot create it overnight. Internal security is becoming hostage to external factors over which we have no control. Hence, covert capability is required in order to increase the cost of war for the enemy.

In India, one sees the civil society losing confidence in the various components of the state. For example, the political class is not trusted. There is lack of independent political platform for the patriotic thinking Indian community and we do not see too many people willing to put national interest above the self. The cynicism of the civil society towards the army, police and others is a cause for concern. We need to urgently restore the people’s confidence in the capability and intentions of our security forces. Similarly, there is a need to depoliticise the internal security framework. The Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA), for example, was politicised both on its introduction and its exit.

The proposed National Investigation Agency (NIA) would be a non-starter. It will not work in preventing terrorism but will be effective only in the post-event period, that too when some other agency has already done the same work. Its independent contribution will therefore be limited, unless there is a fundamental shift in the structures and methods of the work that are being followed. We need a central counter-terrorism agency instead of having multiple centres of decision-making. Unless there is integration of capabilities, success will be limited. There is a need for a comprehensive intelligence overhaul as well as the upgradation of the police capacity. India needs to seriously consider establishing an intelligence driven and legally enabled covert capability to take care of threats to internal security.

Maj Gen G D Bakshi: Emerging and Non-Traditional Threats and Challenges
The existential threats that arise from external sources are those that emanate from China and Pakistan. These are likely to manifest themselves in the form of limited wars under conditions of nuclear symmetry. There are also security implications due to climate change that can lead to water wars, particularly with neighbours. Through a policy of drift, the Indian government has let Pakistan bridge the conventional military gap with India. India's economy gave us an opportunity to enhance our conventional deterrence, but we have failed to grab it. It is mandatory to generate conventional asymmetry with Pakistan. For this, there is a prime need to urgently replace our Soviet era military stock.

The demographic dimension of national security is important as far as internal threats are concerned. There is a steep rise in the productive age group of the Indian population. The irony is that what we have seen in the economy is jobless growth that has the potential to become a challenge for national security. Secondly, unlike conventional threats that are rim land challenges, insurgency in the Northeast is a heartland phenomenon. Thirdly, a key feature of India's strategic situation is its two-front orientation. Internal instability in the form of Left Wing Extremism and Jihadi terrorism, constitutes the third front. Such a scenario makes it vital for the nation state to clearly define its timelines like China has done in its White Paper of 2006. In addition, a proactive approach is required for tackling strategic adversaries/ emerging challenges sequentially and not all together.

Chairperson's Closing Remarks
Conventional war remains a possibility and while dealing with this challenge, we need to upgrade our sub-conventional capabilities. An integrated approach is required to formulate responses to conventional and sub-conventional threats. There is also a need to integrate the armed forces. Secondly, Naxalites constitute a heartland threat and have to be tackled in an integrated manner. Finally, organised crime is assuming semi-terrorist proportions as it can be exploited by external forces and must be curbed expeditiously.

Due to the paucity of time, the planned Question and Answer session had to be dispensed with. This seminar is the first in the series dedicated to identifying the trend line of emerging threats and challenges, formulating the possible responses, drawing up a vision for transformation of the army to successfully meet future threats and challenges and debating the modernisation plans and technological upgradation necessary to achieve that vision. Discussion on these issues will from an importance part of the CLAWS calendar for 2009.

(Report compiled by Mansi Mehrotra, Associate Fellow, CLAWS, and Avinash Godbole, Research Assistant, CLAWS.)