Implications of a Surge/Cut in Troops in Afghanistan on India

General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a round-table discussion under the subject-line ‘Implications of a Surge/Cut in Troops in Afghanistan on India’ on 20 October 2009 at the CLAWS premises. Ambassador Rajiv Sikri (retd) chaired the discussion. Maj Gen G D Bakshi (retd), Brig Arun Sahgal (retd) and Brig Rahul Bhonsle presented the paper. The round-table was attended by officers from the armed forces and members of the strategic community.

Opening Remarks

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director CLAWS, outlined the issues facing the US today in Afghanistan. The US has been contemplating to increase troops in Afghanistan because of the continued violence. The expected surge of 30,000 to 40,000 troops demonstrates the sense of US commitment to Afghanistan. Senator John F. Kerry has opposed sending more troops in Afghanistan saying the top American military commander in the country is moving "too far, too fast" in recommending an increase of more than 40,000 troops. The US has conveyed that the surge of troops will take place only after declaration of the presidential election in Afghanistan. The surge of troops in Afghanistan will have military and diplomatic implications. The coalition forces will reduce ground troops and rely on air power to target militants. The coalition forces’ hold over towns, particularly major cities; and the large chunk of the hinterland is controlled by the Taliban. It is too early to predict the outcome in Afghanistan but developments suggest that it will have far-reaching implications for India.

Maj Gen G D Bakshi, SM, VSM (Retd)

Taliban had decided to fight in 2001 as a regular army. As US pressure grew, Pakistan Army decided to withdraw from Afghanistan. The US has relied on air power reduce collateral damage. Reliance on warlords will be disastrous. The ISAF is relying on air power and has been playing a significant role in Afghanistan. Counter-insurgency and development need to go hand-in-hand in Afghanistan. Traditional agriculture system has been destroyed and local militias wield arms. The phenomenal increase in incidents was witnessed in 2007 and 2008. Civilian deaths are much higher than the Taliban. The surge of 17000 US troops and 4000 trainers will help in stabilising Afghanistan. There have been large numbers of casualties among the British forces. The coalition forces have been concentrating more on Al-Qaeda than the Taliban. The US has been trying to control cities as the Soviets did in the 1980s. The hinterland is in the hands of the militant forces. The Afghans should fight Afghans and they should build their own army. The US involvement in Afghanistan has increased its influence in the region and will likely to continue. India’s military footprint is too small.

Brig Arun Sahgal (Retd)

The US currently is in a dilemma. President Barack Obama has been  pursuing a comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan since March 2009. The Obama Administration’s strategy is to break the ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Poor governance has resulted Taliban’s ascendency to power. Therefore, structural changes are required. The US can spare 94,000 additional troops all over the world. Developments suggest that victory in Afghanistan is not possible. In the current scenario, either the status quo strategy or surge of 50,000 to 60,000 troops is a suitable option for Afghanistan. The three factors will determine the outcome in Afghanistan   development in Pakistan, particularly army operation in Waziristan, the degree of governance, and composition of the Afghan National Army and the degree of achievement. The US will try gradual withdrawal. It is necessary to pay attention to the Taliban, FATA operations, and radical elements. There is no quick regional solution of the Afghanistan problem. India can not play any effective role in Afghanistan.

Brig Rahul Bhonsle, SM (Retd)

Since 1970, Afghanistan has been ruled by three different political dispensations: the Soviet-backed Communists, the Taliban and the American and Western inspired fledgling democracy. Success does not depend on the number of troops. The US troops are not interested to fight in Afghanistan. The US got an opportunity in 2001 to increase its presence in the region and will not pull out. China, Pakistan, Iran and India will fill the vacuum if the US withdraws from Afghanistan. India falls under the second order state. The first order states are the US, Britain and France. The second order state requires a relationship with the first order states to participate in Afghan affairs and the nature of this relationship will determine India’s involvement in Afghanistan. Indo-Pak relations will influence the outcome in Afghanistan. India should develop social, cultural, economic relations with Afghanistan. At the same time, India’s borders should be well guarded and secured to prevent militant elements from attacking using Pakistan as a springboard.

Discussion

The Punjabi-Pashtun relationship is an interesting aspect of Pakistan society. Over the year, the Punjabis have migrated into Pashtun areas and have been trying to control it. India should play a role in getting access to Pashtun areas. India’s involvement in Afghanistan will be considered by Pakistan as an offensive. Indo-Pak relations will determine Afghanistan’s future. Iran is a major player in Afghanistan. Britain and Germany will withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. The US is not considering an exit from Afghanistan. However, the US will partially withdraw from Afghanistan. The long-term aim of the US is to defeat the Al-Qaeda, it is clear and focussed. The resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan will create problem for Pakistan. In Pakistan, security and foreign policy towards India are determined by the army. China has been pursuing an aggressive regional policy.

Chairperson’s Remarks

The United States’ new strategy is fundamentally different. The US has been trying to avoid the repeat of earlier mistakes. Warlords and different tribes control different parts of Afghanistan. India is not a first order state. Therefore, India should not invest in Afghanistan. India should revive its contact with the Northern Alliance and engage it. The US will continue to remain in Afghanistan due to a variety of reasons. Pakistan is very important in all matters relating to Afghanistan. There should be debate whether stable or unstable Pakistan is in India’s interest. India should pursue a long-term approach in relation with Pakistan. Both should work together towards stability in Afghanistan. In the US scheme of things, Pakistan has acquired centre- stage. Despite Indo-US defence cooperation, India has been unable to acquire a central role in US-Afghan strategy. The regional and extra-regional powers (US, China and Iran) should play their own role in stabilising Afghanistan. China and Pakistan have been investing in Iran whereas both are US allies. But the US discourages India’s involvement in Iran. Iran is very important for India.

(Report compiled by Dr. Shah Alam, Research Fellow, CLAWS)