Emerging Situation in Nepal: Implications for India

General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a seminar on “Emerging Situation in Nepal: Implications for India” on September 23, 2008 at the CLAWS Seminar Hall. The seminar was attended by a large number of serving officers and members of the strategic community. The seminar was chaired by Maj Gen Ashok Mehta (Retd). The speakers included Maj Gen A K Chaturvedi, ACIDS Int A, HQ IDS, Ambassador K V Rajan and Brigadier Arun Sahgal (Retd)

Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director CLAWS in his opening remarks said that Nepal has emerged as a serious challenge for India especially since the Maoists have come to power. Maoists came to power using the barrel of gun in China but in Nepal it happened through the ballot. Nepal’s relations with India are critical and crucial. India has followed with great deal of wisdom on the issue of Nepal.

Chair’s Remarks -- Maj Gen Ashok Mehta (Retd) 

The Maoists joined the peace process in Nepal and showed their intension to participate in the political process as well. Now Maoists appear to have complete control over the state’s apparatus. Maoist hardliners may derail India’s relations with Nepal as they view India differently. India should reformulate its policies towards Nepal because regional dynamics have been changing especially given the fact that China figures as a major factor in India-Nepal relations. Socio-economic revolution in Nepal could be possible if Nepal nurtures good relations with India. However, the onus lies on India to integrate Nepal as it needs comprehensive development and India is expected to play a significant role in this development process. The political turmoil is evident with the Nepali Congress as the Maoists have a two-thirds majority. Moreover, there are deep divisions within Nepal’s political groups, with one alliance choosing the Prime Minister and another alliance choosing the President. There is a group that out rightly wants to scrap the India-Nepal Treaty 1950.

Furthermore, Nepal needs to reform its security sector and its security forces should be reorganised. Nepal’s Prime Minister Prachanda has emphasised professionalisation of the PLA and democratisation of the Army. The security sector reform means democratisation of forces and inclusion of groups that have not yet been represented in the armed forces. The Maoists have established links with the PWG and ISI. The Madheshee situation in Nepal also needs to be taken into account. The need of the hour is serious political will to address these concerns. The February 2008 Nepalese election results were a surprise to India as Maoists’ victory was not anticipated. In all, the Maoists should be judged not by their words but their deeds. 

Ambassador K V Rajan

Political and social conditions in Nepal are in a state of flux. The Nepali Royal Army that was considered loyal to the King has shown a certain sense of responsibility and the army’s behaviour during elections was along the expected lines. With the ensuing democracy, Nepal should build leadership and institutions. Nepal needs peace for overall progress and peace can come through the route of economic development. Along with this, the integration of various social and political groups would be in the interest of Nepal. Nepalese politics has witnessed shifting alliances and the latest change is the emergence of the Maoists in mainstream national politics. The composition of Constituent Assembly will ensure the smooth functioning of the government and crucially, the Madheshee expectations should be regarded. 

The China factor would be important in Nepali politics and is a matter of concern for India as well and New Delhi should engage Beijing on the same. Nepal should maintain equidistance from China and India. There should be a stable forward-looking relationship between India and Nepal. However, the India-Nepal Treaty 1950 is a major cause of resentment in Nepal. Prime Minister Prachanda is weighing options in order to maintain a good relationship with India. India should consider adjusting the 1950 Treaty and revise it. Nepal has been trying to dilute India’s grip over the 1950 Treaty through revising it. Huge amount of money has been spent on the maintenance of the barrage on the Kosi River and much of the responsibility in its maintenance lies on India’s shoulder.

Maj. Gen. A K Chaturvedi, ACIDS Int A, HQ IDS 

Transformation of Nepal from a Monarchy to a Republic is a landmark. Nepal is a land-locked country and rivers flow from north to south, which is a prime reason as to why India has a vital interest in Nepal. Nepal has witnessed a high population growth rate. The majority of people in Nepal are Hindus. The population in Poorvanchal is pre-dominantly Muslim.

The ethnic minorities in the border areas are a source of concern for India. India has interest in Nepal because of geographical proximity, cultural and ethnic linkages. India has substantial economic linkages with Nepal. India has transportation arrangements with Nepal through rail and road connectivity. The February 2008 elections in Nepal have raised people’s expectations—whether the government would meet these expectations can only be speculated as of now. Nepalese Army’s loyalty has been shifting, and professionalism will be affected as well. China is making inroads in Nepal. There is also a colonial mindset that Nepal is a buffer between India and China. Whether or not the present government is interested in maintaining good relations with China is to be seen. 

Furthermore, food security in Nepal is a major issue. Moreover, India can indulge in taking electricity from Nepal and the Hydropower projects in Nepal could assist in improving the condition of our power shortages. Petroleum products are exchanged. Some goods are supplied by China such as small arms and telecommunications. China has easily rediscovered a country with similar ideology although, Nepal should realise the economic costs of aligning with China. The February 2008 election was fought by the Maoists on anti-India slogans as Nepal seeks economic independence and has been trying to minimise its dependence on India.

Crucially, the Maoists have links with PWG in Jharkhand, Bihar, AP, which is a cause of serious concern for India. There are many Tibetans in Nepal. In Muslim areas in Nepal, madarsas are coming up and the Muslim population does not seem assimilated with local culture, which could be a worry for India. India should thus focus on strengthening democracy in Nepal. For that, India should invest in infrastructure, economy, medical help and social work.

Brigadier Arun Sahgal (Retd)

Brig Sahgal discussed the political and social developments, Nepal’s constitution, socio-economic situation, and terrain politics. The Nepali society is searching for a way to integrate the Maoists into the system because they are the major force to reckon with now. China-Nepal relations are a cause of concern for India. The three party alliance selected the President but the same alliance did not select Prime Minister. The civil and political groups and political parties have differences over numerous social, political, and economic issues. There are inherent contradictions and problems. The Tarai region is another problem area. There is no political certainty in Nepal. Nepal’s Constitution has socialist aims. Nepal is passing through coalition politics. There is no consensual support on any issue. There is a section in Nepal that is not in favour of socio-economic changes. It is a common perception among the people that the Maoists are following the same policies, which are not the people oriented. The policies should be more responsive to the people.

Crucially, integration of the Nepalese Royal Army into the main army would be a serious challenge in the coming times. Prime Minister Parchanda came to power with help of the PLA. If the PLA gets disgruntled with the government, the whole issue of Maoist power would become clouded. Nepal has received huge amounts of money from China. Chinese involvement in the process is a well-known fact and China’s influence in Nepal has been increasing. The current government will remain relatively stable. Due to economic decline, Maoists have not been able to live up to the expectations of the people. One of the important areas where the Prachanda government should pay attention is land reforms. If that does not come along, there is a possibility that the Maoists will pull out from the political process. India is expected to play a positive role in Nepal because there is a negative image of India within Nepal.

Discussion

Nepal is a base of drugs, narcotics, and illegal arms. The ISI activities in Nepal are continuing and have further indulged into anti-India activities. Madhesh is a terrain area in Nepal, and from a Nepalese perspective, Madhesh is the rest of India. There is resentment against the Madheshee entrenchment in the system and even their entrenchment in the ruling class. Nepal has asked India to revise the India-Nepal Treaty of 1950. The perception of the Nepali people is that the India-Nepal Treaty 1950 is an absolute one-sided treaty. Human development index of Nepal is very low, and there is abject poverty. The Maoists do not have political experience. China’s influence in Nepal is rising with the coming of the Maoist regime. India needs to a keep a tab on this fact. The responsibility mainly lies on the leaders and institutions to solve these issues. Civil society should not be underestimated in Nepal since it functions as a political force also. What would be the changes in the 1950 Treaty, and what would be its impact on India? Will it affect India’s security? India should work urgently towards addressing these questions.

(Report Prepared by Dr. Shah Alam, Research Fellow, CLAWS)