Focus on West Asia: Syrian Quagmire and Future Challenges

Executive Summary

While the Arab Spring of 2011 resulted in an upsurge in aspirations of the people in the Arab world for democracy, three years down the line it also appears to have pretty much re-arranged and damaged the geo-political balance in West Asia rendering it extremely volatile. In the Levant region of Syria what began as a street revolution involving school students drawing protests graffiti on the wall in Daraa to oust the President Bashar Al Assad-led Baath ruling party, in power since 1963, turned in to a violent uprising after the government deployed army to quell the rebellion. Since then the conflict has turned into a full scale civil war with large factions of dissents turning to armed rebellion, propped up by external actors like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey who are motivated to break Assad’s Shia-dominated rule.

No region impinged on India’s security with as much immediacy as West Asia. The fact that West Asia, our extended neighborhood, has been always intimately linked with India is a well-established fact given our historical, religious, cultural and civilization links with the region. While, over the centuries, some aspects may have changed, our connection to the region is still dominated by various strong connections.

This seminar seeks to analyse the current security situation in the West Asian Region with particular reference to Syria and the regional dimensions of the Syrian conflict on its immediate neighbours, viz, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey with a particular focus on the axis of Shia dominancy in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon.  The seminar also seeks to understand emerging regional and global challenges and the role India can play to restore political stability and social order through dialogues and consultation.

Key Issues

Situation in Syria

• After 9/11, events in the Middle East have taken place under the name of fighting terrorism and sometime in the name of bringing democracy into Middle East. In 2003, following the American Occupation of Iraq, Mr Colin Powell visited Syria President Bashar Al Assad, with a message from Mr Bush with three conditions, namely, to cut off relations with Iran, stop supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and stop supporting Hamas in Palestine. President Assad refused as Syria supports rights of Palestinians against the Israel occupation.
• In 2009, there was a top secret agreement between America and the global union of the Muslim Brotherhood party to help the Brotherhood come to power in Arab countries and in return, when the Brotherhood would come to power, it would sign a peace agreement with Israel. Mr Jeffery Feltman US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader Riad al-Shaqfeh, who is based in Istanbul, signed an agreement under the eyes of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah to support them to be in power in Middle East in Arab countries. It aims to revive the Ottomon Empire and take power in Syria. Syria refused to be a part of this agreement and share power with the Muslim Brotherhood party in Syria.
• The war in Syria is fought between mercenaries sent by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey and the government forces.
• The unregulated militias, majority of them Sunnis, who are well-armed, well-covered, well-protected, well-in communications who are beyond anyone’s control. ISIS has taken over the Syrian provinces of Raqqah and Der ez Zor which are contiguous to the Iraqi provinces of Diyala, Mosul and Anah and form the Sunni heartland in that part of the world. The aim of ISIS is to divide Syria and Iraq, to pressurize them against Iran and divide all the Middle East on sectarian and religious lines.  And establish the Wahhabism branch of Islam in Syrian society and shred the sectarian character.
• The UN failure to even get the basic agreements, because of the inability of countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, has been extremely active in promoting the cause of Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and elsewhere. The stance of Western and European powers, particularly France, Britain and the US has been ambivalent and failed to bring any cohesive efforts to improve the situation in Syria.
• There is a need for concerted and agreed negotiations with regional and international powers involved to stop the violence and bring political stability in Syria.

Regional Spill-over of the Syrian Crisis

• Pan Kurdish unification: The Assad regime alliance with Kurdish movement, and autonomous Kurdistan in Iraq, may lead to the formation of a quasi-Kurdish entity in the region of south Turkey, Syria and Iraq.
• Exacerbation of the sectarian conflict: Rise in sectarian killings in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, Iraq & Egypt. Even in GCC, Bahrain and the eastern part of Saudi Arabia have become vulnerable.
• Religious extremism has become vastly more pronounced (AQ, ISIS, Salafists). 100,000 jihadi fighters fighting in Syria from around the world.
• Saudi Arabia and Iran rivalry and quest for pre-eminence in the region: competing through a proxy war in Syria. Saudi Arabia (SA) assertiveness in the face of US policy on Syria, Palestine, Bahrain and Iran. Possible US-Iran co-operation on Iraq, not welcomed by SA, SA may reportedly release AQ prisoners to fight for Sunni militias.
• ISIS surge in Iraq: extension of extremism and instability into Iraq. Trends: US to send 275 special forces to Iraq (protect US interests); possible US-Iran cooperation on Iraq; may benefit in finding solutions to the Syrian crisis; new humanitarian crisis in the offing; GCC concern over ISIS influence reaching the Gulf; oil prices may be affected.

Lessons for India and Challenges

• The Indian nationals in Iraq are about 10,000. The first issue is of 39 people kidnapped in Iraq and different tracks will have to be used to see they are not affected, killed and they are released. India needs to open or develop channels for diplomacy and negotiations. Getting the Indian nationals out of Iraq in the face of security crisis is a major challenge.
• Iraq today is the second largest supplier. Until 1980 Iraq used to provide India with 50 per cent of oil requirements. The current crisis in the region will increase oil prices and affect India’s inflation control policies.
• Sectarianism in Syria is being funded by very strong Sunni countries like Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The Shia-Sunni conflict is at its peak in the Middle East, Nigeria, Mali and in neighbouring Pakistan. So far, Indian Muslims have stayed away from this conflict. However, there is a possibility of it being more exacerbated as Kashmir, after the American army leaves from Afghanistan.

Specific Policy Options for India

• India has maintained its policy of pursuing a peaceful and non-military solution to the Syrian conflict. In view of its non-prescriptive stance on the resolution of the conflict, India participated in the Geneva 2 conference, and was led by the EAM at the conference held in Montreux on 22 January 2014. India has offered $1 million for the elimination of chemical weapons and any assistance in implementation of agreement between government and opposition.
• While strengthening high-level govt to govt contacts, it would be useful to have discreet contacts with key members of the Opposition. This will ensure that India’s strategic interests in Syria & the region are not affected irrespective of the government in place.
• The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran can have potential implications for India. It should stay out of sectarian alliances, while remaining prepared for any fundamentalist backlash coming from the region.
• The threat of the spread of extremism to the region, and the possibility that Syria and now Iraq could supplant Pakistan as the centre or base for Al Qaeda and affiliates is a heavy blow to the Western backed Syrian Opposition, and of serious concern to India, the wider region and international community.
• Defence and security cooperation on counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, piracy, money laundering, small arms smuggling and financing terror activities etc is emerging as increasingly important element in India’s ties with regional countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Libya, Algeria, Jordan, Israel, Sudan, and Egypt. This needs to be leveraged to India’s advantage.
• India should maintain and bolster bilateral relations with all countries of the region to insulate its core interests (oil, energy and security) from the negative fall-out of regional developments. For instance, Syria & Iraq versus Saudi Arabia & Qatar.
• Given India’s large Muslim population, it needs to take a principled position on the on-going developments in Syria and Iraq, calibrated according to the Constitutional, cultural, political and secular values and based on practices of peace and non-violence, respect for all peoples and communities. India’s approach towards countries facing Muslim insurgencies should not be misconstrued as being partisan or sectarian.
• India can offset political unpredictability in the region through greater economic engagement. While the regional trade volumes have increased, considerable untapped potential remains and more thorough and integrated business approach is needed. Considerable potential exists for use of regional diaspora to lobby for India’s political and economic interests.
• India should continue to engage in the international humanitarian relief effort. The current crisis in Iraq and Syria has a potential of spilling into the larger region, where India’s interests (diaspora) will be affected.
• There was a strong convergence at the Delhi Heads of Ministry’s conference of the view that our primary national interest in the WANA/Gulf region should be the welfare of the Indian diaspora, rather than the aggressive promotion of democratic values and ideals. In turn, there is considerable potential for use of regional diaspora caucus to lobby for India’s political and economic interests.
• It needs to be communicated appropriately that “old order neutrality” in a changing and unpredictable environment does not mean absence of decision-making, lack of leadership or political passivity.