Emerging Situation in Nepal:Implications for India

General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organised a round-table discussion on “Emerging Situation in Nepal: Implications for India” on April 2, 2009 at the CLAWS campus in New Delhi.The round-table was attended by a select gathering from the strategic community including experts on Nepal. Maj Gen Ashok Mehta (Retd) chaired the seminar.

Opening Remarks

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal, Director CLAWS, opened the proceedings, commenting on the precarious security situation in Nepal. He noted that it appears evident that Nepal is gradually but perceptibly slipping away from its close relationship with India and getting closer to the Chinese.

Chair’s Remarks

Maj Gen Ashok Mehta (Retd) stated that Nepal came out of oblivion and embarked on the peace process rather remarkably. Nepal’s ‘People’s War’ or civil war was terminated in order to join the political mainstream. The main difficulty for the Maoists at this point is the transformation from a guerilla force to a political party. Maoists are unable to reconcile the ground reality with their political ideology. The ‘Indian paranoia’ is very much prevalent. However, India’s contribution towards their present state of control cannot be ignored. All major changes in Nepal have taken place with India’s  involvement including the current dialogue process. This is primarily because India has a major stake in Nepal.

Discussion

Nepal is struggling in its search for identity. There is widespread fear and apprehension among the masses and the deteriorating law and order situation is adding to the problems. Electricity supply is limited to just 4-5 hours a day even in Kathmandu, the capital city. The people in the Terai region are openly questioning domination by the hill tribes. The Maoists have lost their influence in the Terai region. There is a fault line operating along the east-west highway crucially threatening to split the country into two halves. The Maoists have not renounced violence. They still refer to their cadres as “People’s Liberation Army.”
If a referendum was to be conducted, 90% of the Nepalese people would vote in favour of a Hindu state. The Maoists have given numerous proposals on the future of Nepal including one where they propose to divide Nepal into 13-14 regions based on ethnicity. But since no region has an ethnic community that is in majority, such a proposal is unworkable. The Maoists have agreed to give a special status to Muslims. Nationalism is nearly non-existent in Nepal and is very weak, especially in the hills. People are palpably angry and question the very nationhood of Nepal. They are also angry with India because they feel that India chooses to see Nepal through the prism of ‘Gorkha soldiers and servants.’ The Nepalese say that if border regimes with India are going to become stricter, they just would not be able to survive.

People living in the Terai region have been influenced by India and its concept of democracy. However, the population in the hills is not aware of the contours of Indian politics like the Terai people. The clashes with the Madheshis are hurting the economy. If Nepal were to split along ethnic lines, it would be harmful for India as well. The Maoists have always thrived in a state of utter chaos. Even the elections in Nepal were held under extraordinary conditions and were rigged. There were no other political parties in areas where the Maoist candidates were contesting from. The Maoists resorted to intimidating the voters. At that point, People were fed up with the never-ending violence and simply had no option but to vote for the Maoists. The common man still remembers the Monarchy very fondly. The respect for the Monarchy is intact and the Maoists have failed to erase those memories.         

The Nepalese economy is not doing well. Most of the industries have closed down because of huge labour problems. Thus, cheap labour that was earlier in huge demand is no longer available. The Maoists also have a very oppressive tax regime because of which they are becoming extremely unpopular.

The Maoists are insisting on the absorption of the Maoist cadres into the army and wish to make it into a ‘Red Army’ and name it the People’s Liberation Army of Nepal. Recently, the Maoists denied extension to eight Brigadier Generals. Nearly 18,000-19,000 Maoist cadres have yet to be paid their monthly salary of Rs 5,000, even though the United Nations has paid for all of them. A Youth Communist League of one lakh members has been created and is soon expected to be out on the streets. Due to all these developments, people are increasingly becoming more apprehensive of the Maoists. Significantly, the Maoists do not seem perturbed by their waning popularity. Their final goal is the establishment of a “Maoist State.” For this, they are ready to seize power by force if and when need arises.

Nepal is having unprecedented interaction with China since the Maoist takeover. The number of Chinese delegations to Nepal has increased phenomenally in recent times. China is concentrating on the area of the hills since that is the region China can influence better. The extension of the Tibet railway platform to Kathmandu is going to come around sooner than expected. Significantly, the Chinese have put pressure on Nepal to address their concerns on Tibet and the issue of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. China appears to be in a position to influence Nepal’s Maoist leadership including Prachanda. China has stated that it will not allow any country to interfere with the sovereignty of Nepal—a very alarming scenario for India.

The following three possibilities are in the offing vis-à-vis Nepal’s future:

• Complete Maoist takeover of Nepal.
• Maoists vs the Rest—that would result in a complete bloodbath across the country. (The Nepalese Army could be a part of the Rest)
• The country splitting into various entities.

Conclusion

The Maoists are determined to have their writ prevail despite the threats by the Nepali Congress or the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) [CPN-UML]. Under the present circumstances, a civil war in Nepal cannot be ruled out. The Maoists have yet to prove their adherence to the multi-party system and the rule of law. The aim of the Maoists appears clear—to get to the next election after the Constitution is drafted and to integrate their cadres with the Army on their terms. The Maoists aspire to emerge as the single-largest political party with a two-thirds majority. There are four different shades of opinions in the Constitution-making process in Nepal—left, right, centre and Madheshis—making it extremely tough to accommodate all of them. It is doubtful whether a truly representative Constitution will ever see the light of the day.

India needs to monitor the linkages between the Maoists and the left-wing extremists within India. India has been undertaking infrastructure development in the border areas. This needs to be stepped up. A basic question for India at this point is, “Can India allow Nepal to go Red?” India must reach out to the Maoists in Nepal since a divided Nepal certainly is not in its interest.

(Report prepared by Dr. Monika Chansoria, Research Fellow, CLAWS)