Indo-US Strategic Partnership: Looking Ahead

General

The Centre for Land Warfare Studies conducted a Round-Table Discussion on “Indo-US Strategic Partnership: Looking Ahead” on 19 July 2010 at the CLAWS Campus. 

Welcome Address:  Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd), Director, CLAWS

The Director welcomed the participants to the seminar. He stated that while Indo-US relations are on an upswing, there are some areas of concern which need to be addressed. Six Indian scholars will be presenting their analysis of different facets of the Indo-US relationship and suggest measures that need to be taken by both nations to further improve and strengthen the relationship. 

Amb  KC Singh, Former Secretary, MEA

Now is the time to ponder over the relationship India and the United States share with each other. Obama is planning to visit India and discuss areas of common interests and concerns. With the Indo-US nuclear deal, the two countries have reached a new high. But can India be accommodated in the bigger picture? And is the nuclear deal India’s passport to the world? The present need is essentially to go beyond the basics and boost involvement in numerous other important aspects.

Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra, Professor, JNU

While none can undermine the positive aspects of the India-US relation, it is important to realise that we talk about such relations in the backdrop of systemic vacuum. The global state of power is rapidly changing and it is becoming increasingly difficult to define the international structure today. It is imperative to overcome the strategic vacuum and then analyse relations after such a deliberation.

There are significant developments in the current international landscape and an emerging strategic relationship between India and the US. This should not be confused as a bilateral alliance in the making. Some positives in the relationship are as under: -

• Both the countries share the same goal in terms of economy, terrorism and trade, but the methodologies followed to achieve them remain different.
• The countries are free to choose their strategic partners. To illustrate, US has China and Pakistan as its strategic partners while India enjoys its relationship with Iran, Cuba and Syria.
• Certain visible symbols and structures:

o Maximum number of military exercises.
o The acrimony has vanished.
• Two coalitional governments in India have enhanced the relations with the US; there has been a broad support for the Indo-US nuclear deal.
• There is steady growth in trade and in foreign investment alongside.
• The socio-economic-military base is becoming stronger.

However, some areas of concern that demand the attention of both India and the United States are: -

• US in strengthening its relations with Pakistan military. This does not forebode well for the development of democracy in Pakistan.
• Sino-Pak nuclear nexus.
• Iraq continues to remain an unstable country even after years of invasion and there are similar concerns in regard to Afghanistan and its fate after the US-withdrawal.

India wishes to fortify its bond with the US and realise some goals that would prove beneficial to both the parties.

• India desires to become an internationally respectable member for non-proliferation.
• The need to have an edge over China in the South Asian context.
• An economically and technologically stronger India, a vision that clearly has many obstacles but can be realised with the helping hand of Washington.

Pakistan continues to be a stronger strategic ally of the US and China is economically close to them. With these characteristics, Indo-US relation still remains at a modest level.

Brig Rahul Bhonsle, SM (Retd)

The Af-Pak strategy of the US may be in practice but the specifics of the same remain uncertain. Some prominent issues that need to be highlighted are: -

• The Af-Pak policy for the US and Pakistan is starkly different.
• Strategic objectives of India and the US in the AfPak region are the same but the trajectories are different.
• The US national vision 2020 for Afghanistan focuses its attention on the sphere of stability. 

If the US plans to withdraw its troops from the Af-Pak region, then it reflects the inadequacy of a long term vision. The formation of the Afghan National Army (ANA) and The Afghan National Police (ANP) is an important step forward but will take years before they become effective. The level of casualties of the US soldiers is not as high as other countries.  US public perception about the Af-Pak war should not impede war efforts in the region.

In Indian perception, US withdrawal from Afghanistan would fuel Islamic fundamentalism and give it a new life, with disastrous consequences.

Two more issues that affect the Af-Pak policy are:

• Iran-US relations.
• US relation with the Islamic world.

What concerns India is the way US is coddling Pakistan and blessing it with military equipment and funds for development. The US funds are supporting almost 1/3rd of Pakistan’s economy. This is clearly threatening to India. It is important to question ourselves that how would the US react if Iran was to get this level of support from any other country of the international arena?

One cannot deny the fact that Pakistan needs to work towards a stable democracy. Hence, US should direct its efforts in establishing a stronger democracy rather than a stronger military.

Brig Arun Sahgal (Retd), Consultant, IPCS

India and US need to work together in countering terrorism. There seem to be certain structural and procedural gaps in Indo-US relations. While the US aims up uproot Al-Qaeda and establish democracy in Afghanistan, the efforts do not seem in congruence with the objectives.

India on the other hand sees terrorism from a different lens. India is a victim of terrorist acts and continues to face the menace on a daily basis, ranging from infiltration to firing and bomb blasts. India and US need to understand CI by viewing it on the same plane. It is important to get down to the real picture and not direct maximum efforts towards tactical issues. Strategic issues and logistical aspects need to be worked upon.

There are few areas that need to be addressed by both the parties:

• Intelligence sharing for CT operations- Sharing perception, experience and analytical results.
• The need to conduct a net assessment of Jihadi terrorism in the South Asian region.
• The need to undertake joint operations and establish joint alliances.
• The need to focus on small aspects along with the bigger picture.

India and US need to negotiate and plan strategies to carry out joint operations and also need to put a comprehensive structure in place in order to contain the wave of terrorism.

While India and US enjoy a reasonable degree of cooperation in many fields, the main concern that echoes in India is the US assistance to Pakistan. Washington has assisted Islamabad in numerous spheres.

• Funds for frontier corps.
• Assistance in enhancing CI capabilities.
• Education and training of the Pakistani army.
• The US is aiding Pakistan with almost $1 billion a year; a package worth $14 billion is being considered by the Congress for approval.
• Providing missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), combat helicopters and howitzers which clearly cannot be used in the Federally Administered      Tribal Areas (FATA).

Dr. Manpreet Sethi, Senior Fellow, CAPS

India-US relations in terms of the nuclear component have boosted after the civil nuclear deal. Unfortunately, things settled down and have resulted in a sense of pessimism in India.

There were some notable milestones that cannot be ignored:
• India’s safeguards to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• Reprocessing Rights.
• The rights given to India to more than one site for fuel reprocessing.
• AMP agreement and the terms of US inspection of the Indian sites.

Even after so many points of success, there is a degree of pessimism regarding the deal due to some apprehensions:

• Unlike France and Russia, the Indo-US deal is not concretised agreement for nuclear and fuel reprocessing.
• Civil Liability Bill resulted in high emotions and low political drama.
• US’s doublespeak on issues related to nuclear proliferation.
• US is unwilling/unable to explain the difference between the Indo-US nuclear deal and the deal being worked upon by China and Pakistan.

.Apart from these negativities, none can deny the positive features of the Indo-US nuclear relations, which benefits both India and the US.

• India’s nuclear industry which will be worth $175 million in the coming years.
• Equal emphasis on the threat of nuclear terrorism.
• Early conclusion of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).
• India’s support for fuel bank and nuclear fuel management.

To conclude, a question remains if the United States can help India become a nuclear weapons state? If such a thing materialises, it would help India establish credibility and bring it at par with other countries in the international community.

Dr. Rajeshwari P Rajagopalan, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation

China is undoubtedly an important factor in the Indo-US relations. China’s rise is perceived as a potential threat to India. China’s continuously enhancing capabilities and its rise may also affect the Indo-US and US-Japan relations. China is enjoying an increasing international profile which is contributing to its assertive attitude towards its neighbour and the world at large. India and China are grappling with border issues that remain most contentious in Arunachal Pradesh. China’s attitude towards India post-26/11 is not worth being extolled and other debatable issues are its policy of sanctions on terrorist groups and a hard-line posture towards India.

India’s rising profile has concerned China, even if it has not found its way into official statements.
• India’s economic rise
• Enhanced militarization
• India has the potential of becoming a future competitor.

Tibet is a point of contention between India and China. China’s move of choosing another Dalai Lama is evidently reflective of its policy of suppressing India’s interests. Tibet would continue to be a flashpoint between India and China. Clearly, these border problems are a manifestation on the larger picture and the tenuous Indo-China relations. 

India wishes to contribute to the stability of war-torn areas, especially the coterminous regions and the regional threats. US needs to take a sterner approach in terms of:

• Arms control and early signing of the CTBT,
• The issue of terrorism in the sub-continent.
• Safety of Pakistan’s nuclear complex.
• Support to Pakistan in terms of arms, ammunitions and funds.
• India’s sustained presence in Pakistan.

Dr. Harinder Sekhon, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation

India’s economic partnership with the United States has been a source of positivity in the larger picture of Indo-US relations. The trade and economic relations are at its zenith in certain fields and demand attention in some. At the Indo-US dialogue in June 2010, Clinton stated that the economic recovery is fragile but the plan of augmenting economic relations with India will always be on the agenda.

While the figures of commerce of self-explanatory about the quantum of economic activities taking place, certain areas have not reaped the benefits of of the Indo-US equation.

• Technological transfer and dual-use technology.
• Agriculture and food security
• Higher Education.
• Ocean research.
• Ecological research.
• Health research and investment.
• Infrastructural development.
• Energy Security.

India and the United States need to adopt a more integrated approach and work towards a more stable economic partnership.

• The need to establish synergies
• Search for low-cost intensive options.
• The area of international groups and NGOs demand some attention.
• The need to utilize India’s rich human resource scientific pool.
• Set up more educational institutions not only in the metropolitan cities but also in rural areas.

Discussion

• India’s anxiety about the Afghanistan war dominated the present circumstances purely because of its proximity to the region and its historical relations with the country. US needs to take punitive approach towards Pakistan and there is a need to shift the strategic outlook of the Obama administration towards the Af-Pak issue.

• Iran is becoming a more complicated issue with the tide of time. There is a need to take a comprehensive and practical approach rather than slapping it with futile sanctions that will not prove effective in tackling the situation.

• It is imperative for India to continue to comply with NPT’s guidelines and also work with NSG and the non-proliferation regime and remain a responsible nuclear power.

• The US should not take a passive approach towards the Sino-Pak nuclear deal, which will be a source of threat for Obama’s dream of a nuclear free world.

• China Is quite opaque about its policies and nuclear devices and the same stands true for Pakistan. India cannot think of any move towards disarmament till such steps are not supported by its neighbours, China and Pakistan.

• India and US need to undertake joint strategic development project, for example- ballistic missile projects. With such strategically important projects undertaken, the trajectory of Indo-US relations will rise.

(Report compiled by Aditi Malhotra, Research Assistant, CLAWS)