The Long View from Delhi

General

A discussion on the book, "The Long View from Delhi" by Rear Admiral Raja Menon (Retd) & Dr Rajiv Kumar was jointly organised by IDSA and CLAWS on 18 August 2010 at IDSA. Shri K Subrahmanyam, former Director, IDSA chaired the discussion. Dr. Sumit Ganguly was the discussant. The discussion was attended by a select gathering of serving officers and members of the strategic community.

Rear Admiral K Raja Menon (Retd), Distinguished Fellow, IPCS

The book employs the Net Assessment method to provide detailed scenarios that are likely to emerge in 2020. Four scenarios have been addressed, keeping in mind the Indian outlook and the potential challenges that India could face. This work has built on other scenarios generated by the collaborated efforts of the United States National Intelligence Council and Indian analysts.

Contrary to India’s past, the country has carved out an important place in the international community and can no longer be ignored by other great powers. India has shown keen interest in becoming an active player in international politics and continues to grow economically, politically, socially and militarily.

Post-partition, India managed to remain stable while its neighbours have been affected by a wave of instability and international terrorism, specifically Pakistan and Afghanistan. China’s rapid rise poses a challenge to India presently and will guide India’s future foreign policies. India’s relations with Russia and Israel are other drivers that will be prominent in India’s future. ‘The Long View from Delhi’ focuses on the countries most important for India. Certain potentially important countries have not been considered in the present book but will be covered in the sequel to this book.

While it is important to focus on the present drivers of foreign policies and strategic choices, one cannot ignore the drivers within countries that influence India’s national interests. The Long View from Delhi is divided into three parts. The first part focuses on nations that are considered most important to India. The second part deals with issues such as energy, water and terrorism. The last part analyses the possible scenarios. Other areas of focus in the book are:

• The importance of sustaining economic growth with equity.
• Strategy on technology that gives the private sector an opportunity to contribute through joint ventures with government firms.
• A comprehensive internal strategy that facilitates reforms in areas like civil services.
• Focus on Pakistan and China as they remain a threat and will continue to remain so in the future.

Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Director & CE, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

When a country is faced with certain issues it cannot change or control, it tries to cater to them by formulating a suitable policy that incorporates the dynamism of the world today. American strategists in the 1980s carried out a net assessment of such issues and possible scenarios for the future. The move was important as it sorted made allowances for the potential threats and challenges for the US in the coming few decades. A similar attempt has been made in the book with respect to India and its relations with major world powers.

Notwithstanding the importance of external drivers, India needs to look at its internal problem with equal seriousness and work towards finding effective solutions for issues like Left Wing Extremism, home-grown terror etc. While such a study is imperative, it is significant to define the various challenges the country will face in implementing the desired strategy. A few are as follows:

• The rise of militaristic China coupled with numerous border and security related issues with India.
• The Sino-Pak equation which will haunt Indian security in the years to come. 
• Chinese move to support governments through economic blandishments.
• The conflicting international institutions.
• An unstable neighbourhood (Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh) due to political and economic weaknesses.

The book gives out four possible scenarios for the period upto 2020. The first includes a reinvention of the US though the development of alternate energy sources. The second scenario includes a decline of the US hegemony therefore resulting in a multipolar world. In the third scenario, the emphasis is on a duopoly practiced by the US and China and their collaborative control of international institutions.

The last scenario deals with India’s economic rise and the possibility of India becoming a regional or global power. 

Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Visiting Fellow, IDSA

While the book offers an array of possibilities, it misses out on certain countries that are equally important and cannot be overlooked. However, the author’s have mentioned that potentially important countries like France that has been missed out in this edition will be covered in its sequel. The scenarios discussed in the book are comprehensive and well researched, but a certain degree of technical insight is missing in the sections dealing with technology and its future course, especially in case of space technology.

The need of a grand strategy is inevitable in the Indian scenario today. The book clearly mentions the rising importance of India in the present scenario because of its economic growth and massive human resource. While this is true to a certain extent one must realize that if India does not deal with the poverty within, it can be easily ignored. A country with a population of 300 million living below the poverty line can be easily wiped out of international importance. Keeping this in mind, India needs to direct its efforts towards development of all sections of the society and educating the people so that the human resource is not just restricted to numbers but also quality. 

Discussion

• There is a lack of a strategic core, which directs policy and oversees implementation, this is a major lacuna that needs to be addressed urgently. Additionally, the institutional mechanism of the country is plagued by inefficiency which acts as a major retardation factor in undertaking any strategies on a large level.

• There is a need to define national interests and adopt a comprehensive national doctrine that guides the foreign policy and facilitates a grand strategy. The US Administration adopted the NSC-68 during the Cold War and it clearly helped the US to win. India needs a similar document to guide its future actions.

• It is important for India to converge moderate Islam and how it can help achieve a degree of moderation. The wave of fundamentalism is sweeping through the globe but India needs to emphasise the voice of moderate Islam.

 • The book does not recommend policies that need to be implement and is not a source of erudition for policymakers but only a net assessment of the scenarios that India faces and is likely to face in the future.

(Report compiled by Aditi Malhotra, Research Assistant, CLAWS)