Status and Security Implications of Rivers Emanating from Tibet and Flowing through India

General

A one day seminar on “Status and Security Implications of Rivers Emanating from Tibet and flowing through India” was organised at CLAWS seminar hall on 11 Oct 07. A number of serving officers from the three services and retired military officers and civilian officers and academics attended the seminar.

Lt Gen M L Naidu, AVSM, YSM, VCOAS attended the deliberations during the first session.

Objectives: The Seminar was held with the following objectives in mind:-

(a) Obtain knowledge and awareness about the International Laws on river water sharing.

(b) Understanding the importance of water sharing treaties with neighboring countries.

(c) Highlighting India’s unique status of being both an upper riparian state and a lower riparian state as far as rivers emanating from Tibet are concerned.

(d) Bringing out the Status of rivers emanating from Tibet and bringing into focus India the exclusion of China during the signing of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan.

(e) Understanding the implications for India in the event that China plans to re-route or block or divert water from the Indus, Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers.

(f) Generate recommendations for future course of action while dealing with China. Participation 4. Participation was from serving Army, Navy and Air Force officers. A number of senior retired officers and civilian officers and academics were also present during the seminar.

Sessions The seminar was held over two sessions on 11 Oct 07. Details of Programme themes and subjects and analysis are at Appendix ‘A’.

Issues Discussed during Plenary Sessions

Water and Future Conflict: It has been stated that the next world war will be over water. Tibet is a source of many rivers which are lifeline to almost 50 percent of the world’s population residing in South and South East Asia. Also the Himalayas constitute the largest reservoir of snow and ice in the world outside the Polar Regions, with about 15,000 glaciers that drain water into the Himalayan-Karakoram river system. China today faces an acute water scarcity due to its burgeoning population, increased industrial development and water intensive agriculture practices. China does not want its aspirations to attain super power status thwarted by a major water crisis. On the other hand, since independence India has held the view that there would not be any problem of reduced flows or contamination of rivers emanating from Tibet considering the terrain conditions, limited cultivable land and low population of Tibet. But this view will need to be change due to recent Chinese activities aimed at exploiting the potential of the Tibetan rivers. If this be the case, then there is strong reason to believe that this could be a flashpoint of future conflict with China.

International Law on River Water Sharing: It emerged that the issue of sharing of waters of an international river is a most contentious one between countries considering the increasing use of waters for various purposes. To date the sharing of waters of a river between countries is directly linked to the kind of ‘use’ the river is being put to by different stakeholders. With the complexity involved in defining the term ‘use’, countries preferred to resolve this issue bilaterally by making water sharing arrangements that defined a water sharing formula based on the extent of ‘use’ of the “river water basins”. However, history has shown that states have time and again disregarded the “river basin approach” and have attempted to look at water sharing of international rivers from the perspective of where they are located. Consequently, the country located upstream or “upper riparian” on account of its location would have priority rights of access to river waters when compared to a state located downstream termed as “lower riparian”.

While a number of doctrines and laws on international water sharing were in vogue in various continents, the UN adopted the “Convention on the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses” in 1997. In this convention, the UN moved away from the “river basin approach” concept to a “water course system”. A water course is defined as a system of surface waters and ground waters constituting by virtue of their physical relationship a unitary whole and normally flowing into a common terminus. It also adopted “equitable and reasonable utilisation” with a view to attaining optional and sustainable utilisation. It also provides for regular exchange of data and information on the condition of the watercourse, to include hydrological, meteorological, hydro-geological and ecological data as well data related to water quality and related forests. However, when the UN convention was adopted by a vote; 103 countries voted for it, three states opposed it, 27 states including India abstained. China along with Turkey and Burundi were the three states that opposed the convention. Thus both India and China would have problems or hurdles in the event that the two countries have to negotiate a water sharing agreement with regard to rivers emanating from Tibet as both do not recognise the UN convention.

Water Sharing Treaties with Neighbouring Countries: It emerged that India has not adopted a holistic approach when entering into water sharing treaties with neighboring countries. A glaring case in point was the signing of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan while China was excluded from the treaty altogether. Also the fact that India has given more water to Pakistan and got less water by signing the Indus Water Treaty was highlighted. A similar non-holistic approach while entering into a water sharing treaty with Bangladesh was also highlighted. With the exponential increase in population amongst the upper and lower riparian states, the requirement of water too has gone up exponentially. Thus this is yet another reason for a future conflict situation. A counter point to the above point of view was that China has very little or no population at all in the areas where the rivers Indus, Sutlej and Brahmaputra flow in that country. Thus China’s use of these rivers would be only restricted to hydel power generation, which would not result in any reduction of water flow to India from these rivers.

Implications of China’s Plans to Re-route Rivers Brahmaputra and Options for India: The Brahmaputra is a major river basin for both India and Bangladesh. Since it flows through harsh mountainous terrain, its direct use for mainland China may be limited. However, China’s plan of creating a grand South-North linkage of rivers has invited attention to the river. A report in the People’s Daily in July 2003 gave out that China was conducting a feasibility study for a major hydro power project on the Yarlung Zaugho- as the Brahmaputra is called in China. As a lower riparian state, India has been bringing this issue to the notice of China; as such a project would have an economic, social, environmental and political impact on communities which are dependent on the river system. However, so far what China has accepted is to share only hydrological information of the river system during the monsoon/flood season. This is so because China’s water crisis is becoming more and more acute by the year. Thus at this stage she would not like to share or come to any further agreement with India; as the obvious answer to China’s water stress lies in the Tibetan plateau.

The Chinese are aware that as the upper riparian state, they have a distinct advantage over India. India will need to keep China engaged on the issue but since both countries are opposed to the UN Convention, there cannot be any recourse to international law on this issue. The options for India could be to take recourse to the following: - (a) Convince China to get into a meaningful dialogue on sharing the river’s water. Include Bangladesh in the negotiations as well. (b) Accept the terms of the UN convention and engage China. In the event of China not accepting to negotiate, both India and Bangladesh take recourse to the intervention of the UN. (c) With China’s poor record on climate change and environment, China is increasingly becoming more sensitive to international criticism. Hence, pressure from global environment bodies on China could be another option.

Implications of China’s Plans to Re-route/ Block River Sutlej and Options for India: In 2004, China informed India that approximately 35 km from the Himachal Pradesh border, an artificial lake measuring about 230 hectares had been formed on the Pareechu river – a tributary of the Sutlej River. The lake had been formed due to landslides in the area. However, this information caused panic as flash floods in the River Sutlej had caused massive damage in 2000. Also, the incident led to a debate whether the formation of the lake was due to natural or man made causes. It emerged that formation of such a lake was a “liquid bomb” in the hands of the Chinese that could devastate lower reaches in India at will. It also envisaged that China may have resorted to directional blasting to cause a landslide that made a dam across the river. China did not permit a fact finding team from India to visit the spot of the lake formation further giving rise to speculation that the lake had not been formed due to natural causes. Moreover, it also emerged during the seminar that no maps or satellite imagery of the area were available to the Ministry of Water Resources to make a correct assessment, despite repeated requests for the same. 

India needs to have at least an understanding with China to pass on regular information with regard to the river Sutlej. Moreover, regular satellite coverage of the area would form an important part of negotiations if activities to either block or re-route any river flowing into India were detected.

Implications of China Re-routing/ Blocking River Indus and Options for India: India’s major concern lies in the fact that China was not made a party to the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan. The vast arid and population free areas through which the Indus flows in Tibet lends it to large-scale dams and large hydro-projects. Given China’s penchant for mega-projects and their large requirement of water, it could be a long-term plan for China to divert the water of Indus through tunnels and canals to the thirsty North. Although India is not using the water of the Indus except for some local irrigation in Ladakh, any future diversion of the Indus water by China will have a major impact on the Indus water sharing between India and Pakistan.

Recommendations: The following recommendations are made: -

(a) The subject for the seminar was one which has not been addressed at the strategic level, and requires greater in-depth study to arrive at a more holistic formulation of strategies while dealing with our immediate neighbours. Not only should the Ministry of Water resources be the one engaging China on this important issue, but also the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Defence should be involved.

(b) Inadequate knowledge of the rivers can lead to wrong assessments. Hence, there is a need for creation of accurate database, updating of maps and full use of satellite imagery. Tasking of technical agencies to do this work must be done accurately.

(c) There is need to review the Indus Water Treaty and bring China on board while doing so.

(d) The data on the requirement of water by China already exists. It can only make up its massive shortfall of requirement by tapping the Tibetan rivers. If India does not address this aspect now, there will be problems in the future.

(e) China’s actions relating to the Mekong River were not discussed in the seminar although a mention was made during the proceedings. More discussion on this aspect and the experience of the Southeast Asian countries needs to be brought out. Only then could the intentions of China be gauged and analysed in greater detail.

(f) While there is no cause for India to over-react at the present moment, India also cannot ignore the issue and wait for a crisis to happen before some action is taken.

Seminar Material:  All delegates were given a set of the seminar papers at the commencement of the seminar. A CD containing the seminar papers is enclosed.

Conclusion: The deliberations during the seminar highlighted the fact that the region is facing a looming water crisis. The presentations made by the various speakers led to a better understanding of the subject. But with China being an upper riparian state and also the fact that India has no water sharing treaty with China, the subject intended to spark a debate on whether this could or would actually be the trigger for full fledged conflict between the two countries. Hence, there is a need for handling the issue with China in a more holistic manner so that a future conflict situation does not arise.