Understanding Human Security and Climate Change in South Asia- A Review

In the context of the stalled global climate change negotiations, understanding the impact of climate change at the microscopic level on the individual is essential rather than focusing entirely at the national level which hides a lot of intricate factors that influence at the ground level. Because ultimately it’s these local factors and these people that collectively influence and shape the national policies through social, cultural and political factors ^[2].

The effects of climate change transcend boundaries. The ones facing the gravest threat happen to be the less capable and least prepared ^[1]. There is enough scientific evidence now about the extent of the global rise in temperature which is anywhere between 0.3⁰C to 6.4⁰C and the resultant increase in sea level depending on the estimate. Even though IPCC estimates that the rise will be higher at higher altitudes it’s the developing countries at the equator and lower levels that will be the most affected i.e. Asia and Africa ^[3]. The rich countries are better prepared to counter the effects of climate change but even a relatively small change in the developing world will have catastrophic consequences as the temperature change will unleash a chain reaction resulting in increased natural calamities, disturbed agriculture patterns causing food insecurity, mass displacement, spread of disease, water scarcity all in turn putting pressure on scarce natural resources ^[2].

South Asia: On the brink

The south Asian region accounts for five percent of the world’s land but houses 20 percent of the global population. The population density is the highest with 260 people per sq. km. in contrast to the global average of 44 people per sq. km. Also poverty is widely prevalent with one third of the population living under one dollar a day. To add to this, the affects of climate change have been on the rise in this part of the globe. The erratic weather patterns, retreating Himalayan glaciers causing frequent floods and droughts coupled with the diverse ethnic beliefs and internal conflicts further complicate adaptation measures and pose significant threat to national and human security ^[3,4]. South Asia is a zone of instability with unstable governments and inter and intra state conflicts. It is also home to some of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to the existing conflicts, climate change throws up new challenges in the form of water scarcity and resultant water disputes and also other national security issues along the unsettled boundaries. Data shows that there is a sharp increase in the number of natural calamities with extreme weather events like cyclones or droughts. With a broad coastline and millions calling it home the loss of life will be monumental. Over the past forty years, there have been as many as 1333 disasters in South Asia that claimed 980,000 lives, affecting another 2.4 billion people and causing an economic loss of $105 billion ^[4,5]. This number is only set to go higher with further increase in flooding due to the melting glaciers followed by droughts as the Himalayan rivers, once perennial, become seasonal ^[3]. So, collective action is the way forward with substantial financial and technological help from the developed countries. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) the regional grouping of 8 countries has recognized climate change as a key issue to be dealt with at a regional level during their third meeting in Nepal in 1987 and has constituted various committees to look into the affects and suggest mitigation measures. But as a result of various factors like lack of political will, consensus and other priority issues not much substantial has happened since ^[4]. The broad outcome of all the factors in this region is large scale migration and displacement. Eighty percent of Bangladesh is prone to submergence due to floods and any sea level rise will result in submergence of a large part of its coastline. This will result in distress migration and scramble for scarce resources. For instance, in 1998, Bangladesh was flooded and submerged from few days to several months resulting in more than a 1000 deaths, half a million homes damaged and about 30 million people displaced. The loss only went up north in November 2007 as cyclone Sidr, the worst cyclone since 1991, battered Bangladesh again killing 3000 people and affecting over seven million people. Similarly Pakistan too is highly flood prone as was witnessed in July 2010. In addition, the sectoral strife, ethnic unrest and political instability can break down the entire federal machinery which might be filled by fundamental elements, a geopolitical nightmare ^[1,3]. Other countries in the region Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka too are no different. The disaster management in the region is inadequately prepared to tackle these challenges and there is no gender based approach to address the plight of women, children and other backward societies. A study of the recent flood in Dhaka, Bangladesh reinforces this point where more women lost their lives as they couldn’t swim and did not have proper facilities in relief camps such as closed bathing spaces and shelters^[5].

India

India being in the heart of this region is affected by climate change from all sides in various ways viz. economic, political and social. In spite of its impressive economic growth over the last decade it’s still home to one third of the world’s poorest living below the poverty line and the shifting weather patterns have made poverty alleviation even more difficult. There isn’t adequate attention to local communities and empowering them and preparing them to face and adapt to the challenges of climate change. The social infrastructure needed to bring resilience at the community level is absent ^[5]. The threat to human security is two pronged: one directly and the other at the national security level indirectly affecting the individual.

On the direct threat, major Indian cities or megacities like Mumbai and Chennai along the coast housing millions of poor are highly vulnerable to the slightest sea rise. Recently there has been a huge disruption in the monsoon patterns and the country being largely agricultural and rain fed is staring at a food crisis. As the population further grows and land reduces there is going to be additional pressure on the urban infrastructure. The rains in Mumbai in July 2005 bear testimony to this when Mumbai came to a standstill for two days due to record rain fall ^[4,5]. The social aspect of disaster management has to be strengthened and appropriate policies put in place rising above partisan politics and insular prejudices. In 2008, the shift in the course of Kosi River caused extensive flooding in the state of Bihar and in Nepal. It displaced an estimated 3.5 million in India and 60,000 in Nepal.  A study by Dalit Watch in 2008 of the relief camps in Bihar reveals startling divide in relief measures based on caste, age and gender. Men were migrating to other cities for work leaving women and children behind. Dalits received aid very late and even the quality of food was sub-standard. They were even served food separately ^[5]. At the national security level, India will face a mammoth displacement; in addition there could be large scale influx of refugees from neighboring Bangladesh and Nepal. Here it must be borne in mind that, in 1971, it was a result of the large refugee influx from Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, that India went to war with Pakistan. Over 10 million East Pakistanis crossed over to India to escape the atrocities of the Pakistani army forcing India to respond ^[3]. Down south Sri Lanka being an island faces a very high risk of submergence due to sea level rise. Also, as the Himalayan rivers which feed the country dry up in time, it will cause disputes with Pakistan, for instance over the Indus waters. With respect to the Tibetan plateau, China being the upper riparian can divert the river waters which will further escalate the conflict ^[3]. Both these instances have the potential to escalate from hard diplomacy to full-fledged confrontation.

The issue has to be combated comprehensively at the subnational, national and global levels through consensus. It is in the best interests of the region to go for consultative rather than confrontational mechanisms for conflict resolution. India on its part would do well to recognize climate change not just as an environmental and economic problem but as a national security imperative as well and prepare itself accordingly.

The author is a Research Intern at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal