Maldives : Dangerous Drift

The manner in which the police prevented the presidential re-elections scheduled on 19 October 2013 from going ahead under the garb of a judicial decision, clearly indicates that the remnants of previous autocratic regimes in collusion with the judiciary are bent upon preventing democracy from taking firm roots in the archipelagic nation.  Maldives experienced its first multiparty democratic elections in 2008, after decades of quasi autocratic rule.  The elections brought in Mohammad Nasheed popularly known as Anni, who had been the main force behind the democracy movement and establishment of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), to power.  Nasheed narrowly defeated Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who had been the “President from 1978 to 2008, in the second round after trailing him in the first round.  The new government ushered in democratic reforms, but was challenged by the growing strength of Islamic fundamentalists. 

The remnants of Gayoom era, namely the conservative judiciary and parts of security apparatus, eventually ganged up to force Nasheed to resign on 07 Feb 12 and facilitated Nasheed’s Vice President Dr Mohammed Waheed Hassan’s taking over as the President.  Waheed ‘s subsequent appointment of many Gayoom loyalists to the key position and delay in announcing the fresh election date led to the accusations of his complicity with those responsible for the coup. Eventually, the elections were announced just before the completion of five year term of Vice President turned President - Waheed.  The first round of elections were held on 07 Sep 13, with four candidates in the fray. The ousted President Nasheed led the pack with 45.45 per cent of all valid votes cast and was trailed by Abdullah Yameen, the half brother of former president Gayoom who received 25.40 per cent, Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhooree Party, who is one of the wealthiest men in Maldives received 24.02 per cent of all votes.  President Waheed brought up the rear with only 5.13 per cent of the votes. In accordance with the Maldivian constitution, runoff between the first and second candidate was to take place within 20 days. The poll was categorised by international observers to be free and fair, however, Gasim, who was placed third claimed that the voters list included fictitious names and dead people and approached the Seven Member Supreme Court of Maldives, which by a majority of four annulled the results of the elections.  The court in its judgment ordered fresh elections before 20 October, but put certain conditions for the conduct of elections.

The Election Commission accordingly decided to go in for fresh presidential elections on 19 October and only Nasheed, Yameen and Gasim announced their candidature.   However, the fresh voter lists prepared by the election commission was ratified only by Nasheed and not the other two candidates, who wanted more time to go through the list; thereby not complying with one of the conditions imposed by the judiciary.  The other two candidates accordingly approached the judiciary to postpone the polls, which declined to hear their petition as poll related petition require all seven judges of the Supreme Court to be present on the bench, where as one of the judges was abroad.  Consequently, the election commission decided to go ahead with the polls to meet the original deadline of 20 October and made all the arrangements.  However, on the morning of the polls, the security personnel swooped down on the election commission and prevented it from organising the poll.

The manner in which the entire act was enacted shows that the remnants of the previous autocratic regimes, which occupy significant positions in the judiciary and the security set up of Maldives are not comfortable with the prospects of Nasheed eventually winning the polls.   They do not want democracy to take firm roots in Maldives and were in the forefront of forcing Nasheed to relinquish power and are now instrumental in preventing the elections from taking place.  The security forces have been deeply divided and the elements who had sided with Nasheed in February 2012 were sidelined or removed. After the judiciary ruled against the presidential elections held on 07 September, many security personnel again wrote against the judgment and were asked to resign. It would therefore be reasonable to assume that both the judiciary and the security forces are presently dominated by anti-Nasheed elements with linkages to previous regimes.  It is relevant to understand that most judges in Maldives have no moorings in modern law and were appointed during the Gayoom era based on their knowledge of Shariah.

India like most other members of international community has reacted strongly to the blocking of vote in Maldives.  Both President Nasheed and his predecessor President Gayoom were favourably disposed towards India.  However, President Waheed has shown marked anti-India orientation.  His term ends on 11 Nov 13 and if no successor is elected by then, it may trigger a constitutional crisis leading to grave instability.  Maldives has an extremely significant strategic location, with huge maritime zones. It however, lacks adequate resources to keep this enormous expanse of sea under constant surveillance and any instability could usher in global non-state actors with jihadi mindset. For some time Wahabi Islam has been making inroads into Maldives and Al Qaeda sites have been taking up the cause of Maldivian citizens. Maldivian nationals have also been apprehended in Pakistan while going to areas held by Taliban.  It is therefore essential to restore order in Maldives.

President Waheed subsequently, ordered the elections on 26 October, although the election commission had clearly stated that it needs 21 days to prepare a fresh voters list.  However, Nasheed now feels that the impartial elections are not feasible under the current administration and wants the President, his defence minister and police chief to resign and elections to be organised under a caretaker administration.  The election commission meanwhile has agreed to hold the elections on 09 November and a run-off on 16 November, if required.  In case no clear winner emerges after the first round, there may be a constitutional logjam as the term of current administration ends on 11 November. Maldives is crucial to Indian security and India along with International community now needs to take a proactive stance to ensure that there is no further tinkering with the elections and a president as per the peoples will is elected in Maldives.  

The author is a Senior Fellow at CLAWS

Views expressed are personal