The Onset Of A Mutlipolar World

1991 saw the end of the Cold War and with it began an era of unipolarity. The demise of Soviet Union left behind a unipolar world in which the United States of America, the sole remaining super power, was left in charge of the ‘new world order.’ While realist scholars such as Joseph Stroupe proclaimed unipolarity to be a “passing anomaly” that would not last, Francis Fukuyama’s declared the “end of history,” arguing that “we may now be witnessing… the end of history: that is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalisation of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” Fukuyama essentially declared the triumph of liberal democracy, a premonition that has since been proven wrong. Unipolarity, as seen in history, is fleeting in nature and the emergence of a multipolar order due to the balancing efforts of rising powers is inevitable: the United States, like its predecessors, was not exempt from losing its unipolar existence.

The euphoria at the end of the cold war disillusioned American strategist into believing that emergence of a new geopolitical balance was negotiable. The demise of the Soviet Union had overnight transformed the international system into a new unipolar one, a status quo that Americans have long wished to perpetuate till eternity. History however, has time and again witnessed unipolarity as an aberration. Nonetheless American strategist such as Fukiyama proclaimed US hegemony and unipolarity as exceptional. These strategist based their assessment on two assumptions: first being that the US is a ‘non threatening hegemon’ and because they believe that the US is “immune from counter hegemonic balancing” due to its military and economic prowess over other nations which “makes it impossible for others to balance against the United States.” (Layne, 2006).

In accordance with neorealist theories, the balance of power theory does not allow unipolarity to last: states align with other states to safeguard themselves from more powerful states. Kenneth Walts (1993) has argued, "over time unbalanced power will be checked by the responses of the weaker who will, rightly or not, feel put upon". Thus the dissemination of power amongst several nations is inevitable. The United States, which had gained supremacy over all other nations, has both witnessed dilution of power over time and managed to regain its status several times over the past decades. So much so, that the United States decline story resonates the fable of ‘the boy who cried wolf.’ Over the last century every downward economic cycle in the US has been seen declared as the end of the Pax American order. Be it the launch of Sputnik, the first oil shock, the rise of Japan, the financial crisis or the rising Chinese power. These premonitions on the decline of the decline of the US are based on the fleeting nature of unipolarity.

While the US has managed to bat off past threats on its unipolar existence, the future of its unipolar existence is still not guaranteed. Emerging economies outside the US are already impacting the geopolitical landscape of the world. The world is no longer governed by a unipolar US; it is amidst a transformative change that is witnessing “the rise of a number of dynamic emerging-market countries to the helm of the global economy” (Dailami, 2011). These changing world dynamics have had a salient impact on the global geopolitical hierarchy. Third world countries, which previously played a peripheral role in global politics, are now being seen at the forefront.

This rhetoric of the decline of the American hegemony and the rise of the developing economies has especially been highlighted since the 2008 financial meltdown. The aftermath of the meltdown had a grave impact on the US economy which led to a power-shift from the West towards the East where emerging economies of India and especially China are being recognised as burgeoning economic power houses; followed by the other BRIC and MIST nations. Premonitions of continued US supremacy and unipolarity are now being seriously doubted and the rise of China is inextricably being linked with the decline of the United States and the onset of a multipolar world economy.

Economic muscle is synonymous with power and prowess, a concept the US is very much familiar with. Unipolairity is soon becoming an antiquated theory of supremacy and dominance. The new world has demonstrated that the economic pie can in fact make every one better off. Mulipolarity translates into rise of emerging economies due to the opening of their markets. Fareed Zakaria, in his book The Post American World, states that: "the power shift … is good for America, if approached properly. The world is going America's way. Countries are becoming more open, market-friendly, and democratic."

The economic rise of emerging economies has propelled the inevitable to happen. The unipolar existence of the United States has been challenged by rising economies especially that of China. While this may not be the first time that the US has been hinged off its stance only to regain it back, history dictates that unipolar existence is a fleeting phenomenon. It must be noted however, the end of unipolarity is not a zero sum game. The rise of the multipolar world with multilateral consensus based decision-making does not indicate the decline of the US; instead it means the rise of other nations such that they come at par with the United States. A multipolar order means the rise of more power centres that check the self-interested decisions a unipolar power can take without being questioned.

The author is a Research Assistant at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.

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