Nepal fast becoming the Dragon�s Lair?

 

Nepal’s growing diplomatic and economic affinity toward China have been viewed with concern by New Delhi. The general consensus being that the upgrade in Sino-Nepalese strategic relations — China has expressed its interest in opening its first consulate in Nepal and Nepal is all geared to open its third Consulate-General office in Guangzhou, China— is amongst a series of steps that assert China’s primacy in the country. While some may agree that China’s Nepali strategy is a measure to control Tibetan separatist forces, others view it as a pernicious effort to undermine India’s influence in the region. The bottom line however is that instability in Nepal compounds both India and China’s security concern. Abysmal governance makes it a safe haven for nefarious activities. New Delhi must arrive at a modus vivendi on Nepal with Beijing before it embarks on a path that has adverse ramifications for both. 

 

 

Beijing’s vested interest is undermining India’s footprint in Nepal at an alarming rate. Former Indian Ambassador to Kathmandu Deb Mukherji’s remarks iterates India’s anxieties: "India should watch out for Chinese activities in Nepal and if China starts spreading its influence southwards to the Terai region, then it's worrying for India."

Although India continues to bag the coveted role of being Nepal’s  largest trading partner, it is a fast changing reality. China has been on a continuous track to increase its investments. Last year China’s signed up for $1.6 billion investment into the 750 Megawatt hydropower project in West Seti, one of Nepal’s largest power projects. Additionally, China will be investing another $20 million into upgrading road links connecting Nepal's Syaphrubesi and Kerung in Tibet.Concomitant to the economic benefits provided by China, Nepal is softening towards Beijing. 

 

 

Beijing’s engagement isn’t an outright policy to undermine India’s influence and  is driven by own Tibetan problem. Tibetan separatist forces, which have proved themselves to be the bull in the China shop, are a primary security concern for China. Nepal is a major hub for Tibetan dissidents who cross over to the Nepal border. China’s Nepal policy aims to dismantle anti-Chinese elements and to safeguard its borders. China’s economic investments have been accompanied with enhanced border security, and proposals for upgradation of police posts used by Tibetans crossing the border. Nepal’s crackdown on Tibetan refugees is no secret and has been widely reported by the media. Nepal recently launched a Rs 2.5 million surveillance programme that will monitor Tibetan activists present in the country. Nepal’s clampdown, reports Asia News “is the result of pressure by the Chinese government. Beijing has promised economic aid in exchange for this security service."

 

 

Wary of offsetting India and hoping to bandwagon on the success of both India and China, Nepali leadership has been advocating for a trilateral partnership between India, China and Nepal. Originally proposed by Yang Houlan, former Chinese ambassador to Kathmandu, at a press interaction last year,  the idea is  being championed by former Prime Minister and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and has been endorsed by former prime ministers Madhav Kumar and  Baburam Bhattarai.

As per well known strategist C Raja Mohan, “Delhi should welcome this turn to realism”. Mohan highlights Nepal’s digression from policy driven by ideology to one focused on national interests. Kathmandu elites, he says, have been “politicising economic cooperation with India and opposing all developmental projects in the name of asserting Nepalese sovereignty.” Furthermore, he verifies Chinese interest in cooperation based on track two interactions.The proposal however has not gained traction amongst Indian authorities who fear that such an arrangement would dilute India’s special relationship with Nepal. External affairs minister Salman Khurshid’s view that “it is too early to work on trilateral cooperation” seems to be the general consensus amongst decision makers in Delhi.

 

 

Nepal today is at a critical crossroad. With an upcoming election in November it is seeking to create a new identity for itself -an identity that distinguishes it from a past that was marred by anarchy and monarchy. The new emerging Nepal envisions itself as a link between India and China. This change in overture is a rare window for changing the Sino-Indian narrative from a sceptical power balancing act that is wary of being choked by China’s string of pearls to that of forging a cooperative Trans-Himalayan partnership.

Whether the Indian MEA’s reservations are warranted or not, an inhibited Nepal policy will only help materialise India’s anxieties of being marginalised. An anti-India mood in Nepal has been on the rise.  India is criticised for its high handed role in the power politics of Nepal and for its lackadaisical development efforts. Grappled by an economic and political crisis and deemed to be one of the poorest nations in the world, Nepal is bound to tread towards Chinese appeasements. Nepal’s growing leaning toward China is a reminder of India’s slackened efforts. In order to preserve the sanctity of its equation with Nepal, India must proactively take charge of the trilateral and simultaneously increase the gamut of its bilateral engagement with Nepal. 

A formalised framework for cross border links and trilateral cooperation should be carved out such that Nepal can be developed as a zone for mutual cooperation. Joint ventures in which India and China can invest together include hydel projects, developing Lord Buddha's birth place Lumbini, an area of cultural and religious importance to all three countries, and building roadways connecting Western China to Northern India. Encouraging Indian and Chinese firms to jointly bid for these development projects would depoliticise the engagement and build a rhetoric of cooperative partnership across the Himalayas. 

 

 

Views expressed are personal