Pakistan�s Energy Crisis and the New Great Game

The recent incident of suicide bombing in a Church in Peshawar reflects Pakistan’s half hearted approach in dealing with terrorism. Islamabad’s policies will continue to affect the fragile ethnic situation in Pakistan. These policies stems from the fact that the military establishment in Pakistan continues to rely on some of these groups to promote their foreign policy agenda in India and Afghanistan. Withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan post 2014 may lead to a series of dramatic events in the country. The security vacuum resulting from this withdrawal may lead to the resumption of a New Great Game in the region, as predicted by several analysts. Before Pakistan resumes playing the game, it must re-consider the consequences of its possible actions on the domestic energy situation. As of now, the country is at the peak of an energy crisis as its domestic energy reserves are depleting at alarming levels. Currently, it is dependent on energy imports to sustain its developmental and industrial needs. The answer to Pakistan’s energy crisis lies in its neighbourhood.

Pakistan’s unique geographical location provides it with an opportunity to tap into the enormous hydrocarbon potential of its immediate neighbours. Currently there are proposals underway to build cross border energy pipelines emanating from Central Asia, West Asia (Iran) and from India.  These Oil and Natural Gas Pipelines would ensure for Pakistan transit fees and access to energy resources at affordable prices. Proposals also exist for Pakistan to seek hydro power from neighbouring countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Northern Afghanistan. Such projects can ensure access to electricity for Western and North Western areas of Pakistan. On its eastern front, Pakistan can access electricity and petroleum products from India, thereby ensuring energy sufficiency for its eastern regions like Sindh and  Punjab.

But given Pakistan’s involvement in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan and its troubled bilateral relations with India, prospects for cross border energy cooperation seems very difficult to achieve. Pakistan’s military and intelligence establishment have been involved in encouraging groups like Taliban to continue fighting the ruling government in Afghanistan. Such abetment of Taliban and its associated groups is consistent with its long standing endeavour to pave way for an energy trade corridor cutting through Afghanistan into Central Asia[1] and also creating a strategic depth vis-à-vis India. But seldom does Pakistan realise that  installation of Taliban government in the past did not result in the development of any energy trade corridor which it had long desired as Afghanistan plunged into inter ethnic fighting. After the withdrawal of Soviet troops in the late 1980s, Pakistan’s military establishment became more pre-occupied in creating a strategic depth vis-à-vis India and carry out anti-Indian activities than focus on developing the energy trade corridor. Training of jihadi groups with varying ideological agendas became the sole preoccupation of Pakistani military establishment.  Such activities only led to a systematic deterioration in security of the region thereby paving way for extra regional powers intervention in Afghanistan.

Meddling in the internal affairs of Afghanistan following American troops withdrawal post 2014 may harm the long term energy prospects of Pakistan.  Unlike the earlier times, the warlords and the ethnic groups in northern and central Afghanistan are much stronger and would fiercely resist any renewed onslaught by Pakistan sponsored groups after the withdrawal of American troops. These ethnic groups may also make the passage of any energy pipelines destined for Pakistan difficult. The resulting conflict would negate the materialisation of any energy trading between Pakistan and its Central Asian neighbours. Countries like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan may even refuse to sell the much needed electricity to Pakistan due to lack of stability and security guarantees in the region.

Therefore, Pakistan must realise that its goals of ensuring energy security would be best served if it refrained from undertaking military misadventures in Afghanistan. Drawing important lessons from the past, it should play a more constructive role in the Af-Pak region to ensure energy security back home and also in the greater interest of promoting regional security. But considering the military establishment’s traditional obsession with India and its tendency to give credence to security issues over energy and developmental needs, it may end up continuing with its age old policy of interference in Afghanistan. The ‘Generals of Rawalpindi’ must realise that continuation of their age old neighbourhood policies would further worsen the energy crisis at home and isolate the military in the eyes of the public. Hence the question that they need to ask themselves is: Can they really afford to play this New Great Game in Afghanistan and also ensure energy security for their country?

(The Writer is a PhD Scholar in National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore)

Reference

1. Ahmed Rashid in his book talks about Pakistan’s policy to support groups in Afghanistan who could assist in creating a land route from Pakistan to Central Asian Republics via Afghanistan for trade, See (Rashid, 2010) ‘Taliban The Power of Militant Islam in Afghanistan and Beyond’, Page no. 26-30, I.B. Tauris and Co Ltd, London and New York