Barack Obama�s Victory: Implications for Indo-US Ties

 

There is no doubt that a Republican administration would have been better for India since on many issues John McCain would have continued the Bush policy. It was under the Bush administration that the US elevated India to the level of a geo-strategic partner, reversing a longstanding policy of bracketing it with Pakistan and pursuing nuclear apartheid by treating it as a pariah outside the global nuclear order. But the Democrat President Barack Obama’s takeover of the US administration with his party getting clear cut majority in Congress may see a change in the policy towards India. It’s important to look into the issues that could affect Indo-US ties and on which India will have to tread carefully. 

 

On the economic front, Obama is a strong advocate of protectionism. He supports extensive subsidies for US farmers, which will affect exports from developing countries like India. This was one of the contentious issues on which the Doha Round of WTO was log-jammed. Obama also favours subsidies for converting maize to ethanol. The massive diversion of maize from food to ethanol has sent global food and fertilizer prices skyrocketing, that hit countries like India. He is opposed to outsourcing of jobs and during his entire Presidential campaign he strongly advocated protectionism. The direct fallout of this protectionism would be on outsourcing businesses in India and may result in loss of jobs in this sector. 

There is also a possibility of reemergence of Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty as part of nuclear Non-Proliferation agenda. In 1990s during Democrat regime of Bill Clinton, the nuclear issue, especially signing of CTBT, had been an irritant in Indo-US ties. Democrats take nuclear non-proliferation issue seriously and Obama will not be an exception to this. Although Obama supported the Indo-US Nuclear Deal and voted in its favour, there are apprehensions that the CTBT may come in between nuclear agreement. 

 

On the issues such as terrorism and fundamentalism in Pakistan and Middle East, it seems that Obama’s view is in tune with India. Despite his long-lasting link with Pakistan from his college days, Obama seems to have a deep distrust and doubt about a military-dominated Pakistan and the fundamentalist monarchy in Saudi Arabia. During Presidential debates, while supporting increase in troops in Afghanistan, Obama said any tangible victory for the US in the War on Terror could emerge only from operations in that country. He even suggested a more aggressive approach towards Pakistan and attacked the Bush Administration for supporting Musharraf. He has questioned the American military aid to Pakistan for fighting war against terrorism in Afghanistan. He has said that he would stop this aid because Pakistan instead of using it for the war against terrorism is using it for its preparation for war against India. 

 

But at the same time, in a broadcast at MSNBC, he said that he would encourage India to solve the Kashmir dispute so that Pakistan could collaborate better with the US in its war against terrorism in Afghanistan. This statement is a matter of concern for India since it might lead to constraining domestic political space for India on Kashmir. Moreover, the hope that US might offer incentives on Kashmir is bound to encourage the Pakistan army to harden its stand against the ongoing peace process with India. The Kashmir issue at the forefront of Obama’s agenda might bring excess attention to Kashmir and further fuel militancy. This instead of solving the problem would disturb the peace process and complicate the situation. 

 

Although Barack Obama has said that US-India strategic ties are important, but looking at his perception of linkage between Kashmir and Afghanistan, the endorsement of Obama’s view by Kashmir separatist lobbying group, and the Democratic Party stand on issues such as outsourcing and CTBT, it is important that Indian policy makers tread carefully and resort to negotiations and lobbying to engage the key players in US foreign policy making in Obama’s administration for the continuation of present US policy towards India.  

 

However, trend shows that since 1980s both Republican and Democratic administrations have been trying to improve relations with India.  During the present Republican administration, the Indo-US relationship reached the level of “strategic partnership”. This strong bilateral tie between world’s largest democracy and oldest democracy will remain bipartisan in nature and it has gone beyond party- or individual-based foreign policy. This is obvious from the overwhelming bipartisan Congressional support to Indo-US nuclear deal. Indo-US relationship depends more on the dictates of geo-strategic and geo-economic realities of the present world order in which India fits into the US broader foreign policy framework.

 

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies)