Benazir Assassinated: More Political Uncertainties

Benazir Bhutto, twice the prime minister of Pakistan, was killed in a suicide attack in Rawalpindi on 27th December 2007 just ten weeks after she returned to her homeland after eight years in exile. Earlier, a suicide attack on her homecoming parade had killed more than 140 people. The articulate, poised 54-year-old had then lashed out at the spread of Islamic extremism as she campaigned for the forthcoming parliamentary elections. 

However, with her assassination, dismay and condemnation has poured forth from Moscow, Washington , New Delhi and other capitals, along with concern for the stability of the volatile region. World leaders have lauded her bravery and commitment to democratic reform. The US had been at the forefront of foreign powers trying to arrange reconciliation between Bhutto and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who under heavy US pressure resigned as army chief and earlier this month lifted a state of emergency, in the hope that it would put Pakistan back on the road to democracy. 

Bhutto, who was expected to do well in the coming elections, has been a popular leader and her comeback had infused new enthusiasm into her Pakistan’s People’s Party (PPP). She was also supposed to be a favourite with the US and other Western nations who were hopeful that her victory, and restoration of democracy in nuclear armed, turmoil infested Pakistan would bring in a new lease of life for the nation. 

Benazir’s assassination has led to widespread violence and protests within Pakistan. The PPP has demanded an impartial inquiry into her killing and that perpetrators be brought to justice. Nawaz Sharif has held Musharraf responsible for her death. Sharif’s rally was also attacked on the same day as Bhutto was killed, but luckily he was not in that rally. Talibani Commander Baitullah Mahsud’s hand is suspected behind her killing and Al-Qaida has taken responsibility for the act. 

Pakistan’s political situation is still unpredictable and many upheavals may be witnessed in coming days. The death of the former prime minister has thrown the campaign for the Jan. 8 parliamentary elections into chaos and created fears of mass protests and violence across the nation that is an important ally in the war on terrorism.  The death of Bhutto may even put the process of restoration of democratic government on backburner for the time being. It may also result in strengthening of Talibani forces in Pakistan. More and more terrorist attacks jeopardizing the prospects of democracy may occur in the coming days. In fact, the Army which is always a potent power center in Pakistan may increase its grip on the polity. There is also a possibility that Musharraf may re-impose emergency if the situation threatened to go out of control. 

By shedding his uniform, Musharraf has met a key demand of the international community. As President, he remains supreme commander of the armed forces, with the power to sack civilian governments. He has to now handle the domestic situation. His apparent game plan seemed to have been to engineer the general election in such a manner which would not weaken his position and that is possible only when no party gets clear cut majority in the National Assembly. His effort would have been to make whoever comes to power dependent on parties like PML led by Chaudhary Shujat, Jamat Ulema Islam led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman, or the MQM led by Altaf Hussein, all of which are political parties loyal to him personally and to the army establishment. After the death of Benazir, Musharraf will have to face the wrath of the people as many believe that she was not provided appropriate security against Talibani forces. He will have a tough time in tackling jehadis, meeting the popular aspirations of the people and coping with American pressure to restore democracy in Pakistan. The US cannot leave nuclear Pakistan go into the hands of Taliban forces or anti-US forces. 

As far as the implications of Bhutto’s assassination for India are concerned, it is certain that the ensuing disturbance and political turmoil, even civil war, in Pakistan will have its impact on India. There may be no immediate repercussions in terms of a spurt in jihadi terrorism or armed attacks. The Pakistan Army, ISI as well as political establishments are bogged down within their own borders for now.  Musharraf is not going to antagonize India and may even appear more amenable given that his hands are full in dealing with the conflicts at Pakistan’s Western front where US troops are threatening to cross the Durand Line, over hundred thousand troops are fighting pro-Taliban forces and violent uprising in Baluchistan and widespread protests after Bhutto’s death.  However, in the long run, the proliferation of jihadi forces from the frontier areas into cities in Pakistan could be matter of grave concern for India. The POK terrorist camps are still directed against India.  

Benazir was perceived as a politician with a positive attitude towards India and was concerned about the increasing terrorist violence in the subcontinent. Certainly India has lost a positive politician who believed in democracy. In her death, the subcontinent has lost an outstanding leader who worked for democracy and reconciliation in her country.