New Kabul Government Deserves Global Support

The politically volatile land of Hindu Kush, after two bitterly contested rounds of polling on April 5 and June 14 this year, underscored subsequently by a UN led audit to ascertain accusations of serious polling frauds, mercifully witnessed a successful democratic transition with a new government in place in Kabul on 27 September 2014.

Former Afghan Finance Minister and US trained academic Abdul Ghani was sworn in as the President, and his rival for the Presidency, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, took oath as the nation’s Chief Executive (a euphemism for PM) in a rare display of bonhomie with both the rivals agreeing to be part of a “national unity government.” The establishment of the new dispensation, brokered with considerable patience by the US, in this fratricidal violence reeked nation, augurs well for its long suffering people provided the new government can successfully thwart the challenges to it from many quarters, both within and external. That the global community must respect and support the nascent Kabul government, whole-heartedly, will be singularly crucial for its survival.

Among the many nations who not only have a significant stake in Afghanistan’s survival as a nation-state but have always supported it unreservedly is India - a nation widely respected among all Afghani ethnic sections. Thus, in his characteristic direct style, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while on his US visit, reminded his hosts that the US must not repeat their Iraq misadventure and its pull-out from Afghanistan be calibrated with caution and not in haste.

With the drawdown of  US and International Security Forces (ISAF) in progress since last year, the current strength of foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan is around 41000 with 29000 being US troops. However, with the signing now of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the new Afghan government and US, it is expected that just around 12000 NATO troops may be left behind at the Bagram Airbase and in Kabul - appreciated to be the minimum force for training and logistics support to the beleaguered Afghan National Army besides some critical Special Forces cover for combat duties. Whether this small force will be able to adequately support the Afghan security forces against the highly motivated Taliban militants (around 35000 and growing) augmented from  the hordes of Gulb-ud-din Hekayatmar and Haqqani networks and remnants of Al Qaeda - all duly supported by the ever arching presence of Pakistan’s sinister Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). By all accounts, the infamous ISI has been eagerly awaiting the departure of US and ISAF from Afghanistan. The ISI, hell bent to neutralise even “soft power” endeavours of the Indians in Afghanistan, would continue to target Indian assets and those created by India for Afghanistan.  But far more serious is the persistent threat to the Kabul government from the Pakistani establishment, which doggedly wishes to install a pro-Islamabad regime in Kabul with the support of all the extremist elements, mentioned ibid, it has been nurturing for years. That levels of violence have gone up considerably in the last few weeks, owing to these terrorists, are an indicator of events to emerge in Afghanistan’s violent landscape. 

It is imperative that Afghanistan must not go the Iraq way and the US/ISAF withdrawal does not leave a security vacuum which gets filled by Pak supported elements like the Afghan Taliban, elements from the rapidly growing ISIS (from Iraq), Al Qaeda and the other Sunni warlords in Afghanistan. The US may wish to reconsider enhancing the troops they are leaving behind to support the Afghans. However, arranging adequate logistics for their force will be a major headache as Pakistan will continue to pose problems for the sustenance of US troops stationed in Afghanistan. The US must establish a strong airhead at Bagram and another suitable site to logistically maintain its troops. If the UN can assume the responsibility of ensuring peace in Afghanistan, then perhaps Russia could be persuaded to let all forms of supplies, including for combat, be moved through the already established Northern Distribution Network which connects the Baltic and Caspian ports with Afghanistan through Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. 

In the last 2 years, many in the international community have pledged to also economically bail out the hapless Afghans. All promises made at the Tokyo Conference in 2013 by various nations to financially assist the Afghan government must be duly honoured. 

It is an inalienable fact that Pakistan is the key to ensuring or negating peace in Afghanistan. It has to be strongly persuaded that it refrain from its traditional machinations to galvanise all terror elements and pursues its nefarious agendas in Afghanistan. The US, on whom Pakistan is primarily dependent for financial survival and the latter’s “all weather” mentor China must duly impress upon Pakistan to desist from creating conditions in Afghanistan which plunges it into a civil war.

Afghanistan today is the ideal basket-case for the international community and in particular, the UN and the US, to assist it substantially, both for its security and its economic survival. For world peace, victory has to be ensured in Afghanistan, where the first combined battle to combat global terror has been waged since 2001. To defeat the growing dark forces of terrorism and extreme religious bigotry, it is time the world synergises its strategy, will and resources with India unflinchingly supporting Afghanistan the best it can.   

The author, a veteran Lt General, was the first Chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency, India. Views expressed are personal.