Pakistan: Likely Trends Post General Elections

Since decades Pakistan has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. From military jackboots trampling democracy for more than half of its existence to being the epicenter of international terrorism and employing terrorism as an instrument of state policy, Pakistan has displayed all the ingredients of a failing state in the offing. In the yearly failed states index, carried out by Foreign Policy (FP), Pakistan remains on the high risk category, and of the 16 most highly affected countries at risk, ranks 13^th[1]

The recently concluded 2013 general elections, despite being marked by serious violence and in spite of the outcome being provincially fractured, were however largely successful with a record turnout, providing the proverbial silver lining on the dark clouds which hover over the state. Notwithstanding its bleak past as regards domestic democracy, regional sanity, economic survivability or internal stability, the culmination of these general elections is nothing short of momentous. For the first time since 1947, a civil government completed its tenure in office of 5 years, importantly handed over power in a peaceful transition to another civil duly elected government and very significantly and surprisingly to some geo-political analysts, the all powerful Pakistan Army watched from a distance without any known interference in the outcome of these elections. That the Pakistan Army’s sinister intelligence arm, the ISI, reportedly had linkages with some political parties should not mar the triumph of democracy in a state like Pakistan. Little wonder then that the India and the international community have applauded Pakistan’s tryst with democracy.

Will the newly elected Nawaz Sharif, now in his third avatar as Pakistan’s premier, be able to ‘walk the talk’ is the million dollar question. There are many negatives which exist presently in Pakistan which Prime Minister Sharif will have to erase in case Pakistan, with most of its ills attributable to a myopic vision and self inflicted injuries, wishes to shake out from and take its place as a mature and acceptable member of the global community. 

Will Nawaz Sharif be able to tone down Pakistan’s overly obsessive India centricity in its strategic formulations? Is there any need to hyphenate every aspect of development and military strength between two largely unequal neighbours? Nawaz Sharif had made all the right noises as regards India in his electioneering but his reported linkages with the fundamentalist tanzeems (groups) who are against any rapprochement with India may compel him to repay the fundamentalists for any electoral services rendered by going slow in improving relations with India. 

Nawaz Sharif’s ability to rein in the all-powerful Pakistan Army and limit its role as provided by the country’s constitution is doubtful. So is his ability to restrain the ISI from its anti-India focus, or its activities in Afghanistan or even the targeting of inconvenient Pakistani politicians or foreign/ local journalists within the country. It is doubtful if Sharif would be able to display the courage to bridle these dominant institutions of Pakistan. That the ISI may be planning to trigger off some provocative incidents to further vitiate Indo-Pak relations remains a high possibility. The recent attack by the Hizbul Mujahideen, a Pakistan based and supported terrorist organisation, on an Indian Army convoy in which eight Indian Army soldiers were killed on 24 June 2013, could perhaps be part of this agenda and confirms the ISI’s historical propensity in its congenital animosity for India.

Other immediate and formidable challenges which PM Nawaz Sharif faces are ensuring Pakistan does not slide into irretrievable financial bankruptcy and in repairing the tenuous US- Pak relations. Pakistan has survived primarily due to a generous dole of over 20 billion dollars since 2001 from the US. Most analysts opine that ingrained business acumen of Nawaz Sharif is likely to prevail to confront these significant challenges with the assistance of the US, IMF, World Bank and the Saudis. 

In public posturing, Nawaz Sharif is likely take a stern stand as regards US drone attacks in the restive badlands of FATA astride the Durand Line. Even with the Afghan Taliban and to some extent, with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, Nawaz is better placed to improve the vexed Pak-Afghan relations, but that would depend largely on the Pak Army-ISI combine allowing him to do so. As Nawaz Sharif gears up to confront the myriad diverse challenges confronting him, he indeed has an unenviable task. Terrorism and nuclear weapons make an apocalyptic cocktail and along with Pakistan’s Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani, he has to ensure that his country’s growing nuclear stockpile remain safe from the terrorists of many hues residing in his country. Much rests on his shoulders as failure could well lead to the disintegration of Pakistan.   

Pakistan’s future and stability is of concern to India. The Government of India’s initiative in speedily sending the Indian PM’s Special Envoy, Shyam Saran, to Islamabad is thus a welcome initiative. Notwithstanding Pakistan’s frequent failings in good neighbourliness vis-a-vis India, it behoves India, as a larger, more powerful and mature nation to continue on a path of dialogue with Pakistan in its efforts to improve bilateral relations.

Lt Gen Kamal Davar (Retd) was India’s first Chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency.

Views expressed are personal