Zarb-E-Azb: A Soft Coup by Pakistan Army

Pakistan Government launched the much-awaited military offensive ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ on 15 June 14 in North Waziristan with much reluctance. The peace talks with Taliban having failed and the brazen attack on Karachi airport, left them with little choice. On completion of six months of the military operation, Pakistan Army claims to have cleared nearly 90 per cent of North Waziristan Agency (NWA) and killed approx 1200 terrorists and injured 350, while suffering approximately 200 casualties to own personnel.

The launch of operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’ has proved of great benefit to the Pakistan Army, as the international community feels obliged to them and the domestic population indebted. The implications of the operations for various stake holders including Pakistan Army are broadly enumerated in the succeeding paragraphs.

United States. The Pakistan Army obliged the Americans by launching operations in NWA which provided a base to various terrorist organisations targeting NATO’s operational and logistic echelons. Though the US commanders have expressed reservations about the effectiveness of Pakistan army operations, they have little choice but to humour Pakistan and compliment them for conduct of the on-going operations. As has been the precedence, Pakistan has sought remuneration (visit of General Raheel Sharif to USA in November 2014) from the US seeking commitment for provision of military and intelligence resources / hardware and fiscal assistance to help beef up Pakistan’s civilian and military capacity to fight terrorism. It may also coerce the US to target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cadres based in Afghanistan and safeguarded their interest in the region post-withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.

China. Ever since the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistan Army has been continuously highlighting their successes in killing / capturing cadres of Uighur terrorist groups including Uighur’s East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM); the apparent intent being to gratify China and seek financial and military assistance as compensation for operating against Uighur terrorist organisations.

Af-Pak Dilemma. After six months of military offensive in NWA, the Afghan Government continues to be sceptical of Pakistan’s commitment to eliminate its so called ‘Strategic Assets’. It is convinced that Pakistan military operations are primarily focussed towards targeting elements of TTP with very limited effort directed to suppress the Afghan Taliban or Haqqani Network. Additionally, with no viable forces deployed along the Afghanistan Border, the on-going operations have resulted in large scale exodus of Jihadists into the Afghan territory. Majority of these elements are at the beckoning of the Pakistani Army and may be employed to further their interests in the region. However, post the recent attack on the Army Public School at Peshawar, Pakistan may be forced to act against its ‘good Taliban’, if it desires a reciprocal response from Afghanistan in dealing with Mullah Fazlullah and other high-profile militants of TTP who are believed to be hiding in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has routinely accused Pakistan of providing shelter to the Afghan Taliban, while Pakistan has been accusing Afghanistan of protecting members of the Pakistani Taliban. During the recent visit of General Raheel Sharif to Kabul after the Peshawar Army School attack, he desired to strengthen military and intelligence cooperation with Afghanistan and underlined the need to undertake coordinated operations to jointly tackle various insurgent organisations.

India. The sudden surge in the last six months in terrorist incidents by the Pakistani proxies and ceasefire violations to sabotage the on-going polling process in Jammu and Kashmir, challenge the sincerity of commitment made by Pakistan Army to deal with all terrorists indiscriminately. Pakistan brazenly continues to use terrorism as a policy instrument against India and would continue to support and maintain the non-state actors to further its interest in the region. The on-going operation is unlikely to have any bearing on the internal security situation in India, rather India needs to be more vigilant to prevent any spill-over from across the border.

Internal Perspective. Pakistan has suffered enormously due to terrorism; its image tarnished, economy ruined and tens of thousands of people killed. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has projected the Pakistan Army as the ultimate responder to all Pakistani afflictions and an indispensable instrument of state machinery. Mr Nawaz Sharif in one of his addresses had acknowledged that his efforts had failed to control the worsening internal security situation and had no choice but to authorise Army to deal with matter. The on-going operation by Army is being lauded by all, guaranteeing primacy of the Pakistani Army in the national governance and decision-making process. The same was evident during the recent visits of General Raheel Sharif to the US and Afghanistan where the host countries were more than eager to engage with him rather than with the polity.

Current Status:  Operation Zarb - e - Azb

As per the Inter-Services Public Relations statements, the on-going operations in North Waziristan have been progressing successfully as planned; however, no independent corroboration of the claim exists. Till date no mention of any significant jihadi leaders having being killed or apprehended or major skirmish underway has been reported.

The targeting of all terrorists without distinction, as committed by the Pakistan Army, is suspect, as number of reports indicate that many hard-core militants of Haqqani network and Afghan Taliban had already slipped into Afghanistan or were smuggled out with IDPs to safe havens prior commencement of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. This fact further gets reinforced by the statement made by Mr Sartaj Aziz, a senior aide to Pakistan Prime Minister in an interview to BBC Urdu – when he questioned ‘why should Pakistan target militant groups that do not pose a threat to its security?' The likely release of terror mastermind Zaki ur Rehman Lakhvi on bail, just days after the Taliban massacred 148 people, mostly school children in Peshawar, reflects Pakistan Army’s mindset, while dealing with its favoured terrorist organisations. 

There certainly have been some low/middle-ranking TTP, Uighur and foreign commanders and cadres killed by forces during the ongoing operations, but no major successes have been reported. Till date not one important commander of ‘good’ Taliban or Haqqani network has been killed or captured.  Pakistan has ensured its strategic assets are adequately protected, while it continues to selectively target elements of TTP and few foreign jihadis/terrorist organisations which affect them.

Conclusion

The conduct of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan has achieved a soft coup for the Pakistan Army, wherein it has ensured it is adequately compensated by the ‘much-obliged’ international community to purportedly beef up its capability to undertake counter-terrorist operations and maintain peace in the region. On the domestic front it has positioned itself as most vital instrument of Pakistan state machinery, the  ‘first amongst the equals’, while relegating all others to peripheral insignificance. In spite of the grandstanding by the Pakistan Army of indiscriminate dealing with all militant groups, it has ensured its military strategic assets (‘good Taliban’) and interests are adequately protected and only cadres which affect them are neutralised. The security equation with Afghanistan may see a partial shift due to Pakistan’s need to target TTP, however in case of India, the Pakistan sponsored terrorist activities would continue as hither to fore. 

The author is Senior Fellow at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.