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Abstract: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Islamabad for a two day visit on 20 Apr 15, a first by a Chinese president after nine years. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 51 agreements and memorandums of understanding worth $46 billion having various security implications for India and pay offs for China
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Islamabad for a two day visit on 20 Apr 2015, a visit by a Chinese president after nine years. The visit is being dubbed as a ‘fate-changing visit’ with focus on economic relations between both the countries. President Xi Jinping in a historic address to the joint session of Parliament hailed Pakistan and China's long-standing ties and lauded Islamabad's anti-terror efforts, stating "Pakistan has stood on the frontline in the international fight against terrorism".
On 20 April 2015, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 51 agreements and memorandums of understanding worth $46 billion. It included the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) between Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea and China’s Xinjiang region, upgradation of certain strategic roads & rails and construction of power plants besides others to be built over 15 years.
The agreements provide major boost to the sagging economy of Pakistan and help develop its communication and power infrastructure.
Chinese Interest. The massive investment by the Chinese in Pakistan has its paybacks in terms of gaining influence in the region, energy security and trade.
- China’s primary concern is spread of terrorism in Xinjiang. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement founded by Uighurs operates with several Pakistani terrorist groups and has its base in Pakistan. China, through various developmental initiatives in terrorist-infested tribal areas, is attempting to prevent the flow of radical elements into its own backyard from Pakistan. Further, the investments would lead to economic growth and development of Xinjiang region, where tensions simmer presently due to its backwardness and poverty.
- Highway diplomacy is the most striking feature of China’s trade route strategy. The proposed CPEC will be a skein of highways, railways, oil and natural gas pipelines, transporting Chinese goods to Gulf and Africa, while Middle East and African oil will be shipped eastwards. According to recent figures, over 60-70% of China's imported oil travels through the Straits of Malacca. This link would vastly shorten the 12,000-kilometre sea route that Mideast oil now takes to reach Chinese ports. Additionally, the CPEC would reduce vulnerability of China, as its energy and goods would move on inland territory without passing through the Straits of Malacca, which could be blocked in case of hostilities. Besides, the initiative would also help China access European markets through Central Asia and Russia.
- Compared to China’s plan to invest $46 billion in Pakistan over 15 years, US aid to Pakistan since 1950 has been approx $40 billion which seems to be spread too thinly. China’s massive economic engagement with Pakistan should be seen in the context of Beijing’s “efforts to counter the US influence in South Asia and deepen its alliances in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Middle East.
- The execution of agreements signed between China and Pakistan are vulnerable to numerous impediments. Beijing has highlighted the prevailing security environment and challenges that would hamper speedy completion of the projects. It has stressed for provision of adequate security measures to safeguard Chinese institutions and citizens working in Pakistan. Additionally, the proposed change in alignment of CPEC from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and central Baluchistan to Punjab and Sindh has been strongly contested. The opposition senators of KPK and Baluchistan warned that if the initial route as proposed by China is changed the country would not remain united”.
Security Implications for India
- The focus of Chinese spending in Pakistan, besides trade, economic aid and infrastructure development, will give China direct access to the Arabian Sea and beyond, boosting its influence in the immediate Indian neighbourhood of Central and South Asian region and Middle East
- The changed alignment of CPEC, running almost along the border and upgradation of Karakorum Highway (Havelian to Thakot) and Karachi-Lahore Motorway (Multan to Sukkur) would significantly contribute towards Pakistan’s options for swift force generation in the desired area of military operations and switch them if the situation so warrants. The CPEC also has strategic implications.
- The CPEC Development Plan includes construction of approx 19 tunnels between Hunza and Khunjerab Pass. The construction of this stretch is being exclusively handled by Chinese nationals. The tunnels afford ideal facilities to store high-value military weapons like missiles.
- The signing of the Framework Agreement on Joint Feasibility Study for up-gradation of ML1 (Karachi to Peshawar Railways link) and development/up-gradation of Karachi Cantonment, Peshawar, Quetta, Okara, Rawalpindi, Bahawalpur railway stations have strategic implications for India. Majority of these rail facilities are utilised by Pakistan Armed forces for build-up and maintenance of its military assets.
- Presently a terminus of a branch railway, the plan is to upgrade Havelian to a dry port capable of holding containers and about 2 million tonnes of goods per year. Havelian has one of the largest ordnance factories of Pakistan along with an ordnance depot. Located in adequate depth near Abbottabad, it provides ideal storage and transit facility for speedy build up of military hardware and logistics to support military operations in the LC Sector or plains of Punjab, without being unduly prone to Indian interdiction.
- Though not part of the Chinese President’s agreements but linked to CPEC, China has revealed plans to construct an airport on the strategically located Pamir plateau in the city of Tashkurgan on the Karakoram Highway. China aims to use the airport to swiftly transfer resources to the remote but strategically important region of Akshai Chin and PoK. Presently the Chinese, opposite our J&K sector, suffers from the drawback of having just two major airbases at Kashgar and Khotan which are 800 and 600 km away respectively from the nearest Indian air bases.
- Taking over of Pakistan's Gwadar port, concessional loan for Gwadar International Airport and upgradation of Gwadar Port East Bay Expressway Project, guarantee berthing, maintenance and replenishment of China's naval ships and provide China a logistic base/staging ground for furtherance of its trade, energy needs and regional influence.
- Apart from widening of the Karakoram Highway (KKH), which is the feeder, infrastructure development by the Chinese in the Northern areas has not only assisted Pakistan strengthen its military bases near LC but also ensured availability of troops and resources throughout the year, ensuring capability to undertake operations anytime.
- China has exhibited no qualms regarding construction of railways, highways and energy projects (Karot dam on Sutlej) in PoK and Akshai Chin. It violates the territorial integrity of India and would add to new tensions and regional uncertainties. It would be prudent for the Indian security advisors to factor in the growing China-Pak operational nexus and undertake measures to counter them.
Conclusion
China’s preferred diplomatic technique involves cash, which was evident by the numerous agreements signed during the recent Chinese President visit to Pakistan. China’s investment in Pakistan is primarily aimed at reviving its failing economy as Pakistan’s survival is key to Chinese dominance in the South Asian region and also preventing spread of terrorism in restive Xinjiang. The economic dependence of Pakistan on Chinese aid, allows China to use Pakistan as her security proxy and a low-cost deterrent option against India’s growing regional and economic status. However, in spite of massive financial dole by China, there are questions about Pakistan's ability to absorb the investment proposed by China, given its current problems of terrorism, sectarianism, political instability and rampant corruption.
The string of pearls around India seems to be tightening as the projects approved during the visit of Chinese President has greatly reduced the inter se distance between India and China along the North and Western borders and in PoK, it has transgressed and violated the integrity of Indian territory. Statements/objections by Indian government over period about its sensitiveness on developments in PoK have been reported but to no end result. There is a need for India to be more assertive and sensitise international organisations and world polity about growing Chinese presence in the region over which India has legal rights. Internally, there is need to take suitable political, diplomatic and military measures to safeguard India’s interest and counter the hegemonic designs of Pak - China.
The author is Senior Fellow at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.
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