Russia-Pakistan Engagement: Concerns for India

Recent developments between Russia and, India’s least friendly neighbour Pakistan, have raised many eyebrows. The landmark defence deal signed during Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu’s visit to Pakistan in December ushered in a ‘milestone’ in bilateral ties. Significantly, this was the first visit of a Russian defence minister to Pakistan following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Although, the deal lacked teeth in terms of tangible defence cooperation, overtures were made by Russian Foreign Minister that a political approval for the MI-35 helicopter was on the cards. This can be deemed as a significant development. 

Another major step in Russia-Pakistan bilateral relations was the signing of the energy deal worth $1.7 billion. Moreover, the visit of Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to Russia in November led to Pakistan announcing plans to ‘grab maximum share’ in the Russian markets. This was seen as an important opportunity for Pakistan to improve relations with Russia following sanctions by the West on the latter. 

More significantly, Russia’s debut participation in Pakistan’s International Defence Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS) 2014 in Karachi was noteworthy. Following Russia lifting its embargo on weapons sales to Pakistan, the bilateral relations appear to be on an upward trajectory. At IDEAS, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif revealed that Pakistan seeks to purchase RC-93 engines from Russia. These engines are particularly important for Pakistan as they are used in the JF-17 Thunder fighter (jointly developed between Pakistan and China). If such a deal comes through, Pakistan can directly purchase the engines from Russia instead of opting for the China route. Some reports have also suggested that the Russian delegation at IDEAS was presenting data on surface-to-air missile systems to Pakistan. Therefore, IDEAS can be seen as a significant platform for improving the bilateral relations between Russia and Pakistan, which for many years have been plateaued and sluggish at best. The signing of the defence deal coupled with active participation of Russia at IDEAS (which was reported widely in the Pakistan press) is suggestive of a shift in the relations, specifically in the defence sector.

Historically, Russia and Pakistan have found themselves in opposite camps. For instance, Pakistan reached out to the US during the Cold War period and consolidated relations in the form of the SEATO and CENTO pacts while, the former Soviet Union sided with India by signing the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in 1971. Furthermore, differences erupted between Pakistan and Russia on their respective approaches to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.  Therefore, the recent keenness with which the two nations have approached each other has led to a belief of a possible rapprochement.

The growing relations between Islamabad and Moscow come at an interesting timing. The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan coupled with US-Pakistan ties being at their lowest, promotes Russia’s interest in Pakistan and vice-versa. Furthermore, with Pakistan embroiled in an energy crisis and Russia being isolated internationally (as a result of the Ukrainian crisis), the emerging cooperation between the two countries becomes noteworthy.

Many may see the bilateral ties as only ‘improving’ as opposed to being a ‘major shift’. The convergence of interests in the energy or defence sectors could play an important role in strengthening strategic interests. In such a context, a possible rapprochement between Pakistan and Russia could impact the larger strategic dynamics of South Asia and India in particular.

India-Russia relations have always been intriguing given how they have routinely shared comfortable relations even in a dynamic strategic environment. Although, India has historically maintained a ‘non-aligned’ standpoint in its foreign policy, the bilateral relations between India and Russia have always held a ‘special’ status. Apart from formalising ties through treaties, the special status of India-Russia relations has been attributed to the military cooperation between the two countries. The joint development of the BrahMos missile system and the licensed production of the Su-30 aircraft and T-90 tanks, are a case in point. The strategic dimension to the India-Russia defence cooperation has lent Russia an enviable position in India’s foreign policy.

Moreover, the recent visit of Putin to India in December reinstated the special status the two nations ascribe to each other. Putin sought to retain strong cooperation with India ensuring the latter does not subscribe to the sanctions regime. Modi ensured Russian support for the ‘Make-in-India’ drive in the aerospace sector. Coupled with a string of deals signed between the two states in the annual summit, many noted that relations between India and Russia remain stable.

However, India-Russia relations in the recent past have witnessed many downs. India’s defence procurement policy, which mostly focused on Russia, has off late become more diversified, with an increase in purchase from the US and other European nations such as France. Also, the euphoria of President Obama’s visit to India signaled possible betterment of relations between India and the US. Historically, the military based ties between India and Russia has seen a change probably with India’s growing power potential. Juxtaposing this to Russia’s moves of enhancing defence relations with Pakistan by first lifting the weapon sales embargo and then signing a defence deal could therefore gain traction. Although, Russia maintains that relations with Pakistan are focused on countering terrorism and improving anti-drug operations, the strategic dimension remains prominent.

Although, India’s relations with Russia in the current context remain sound, one cannot ignore how strategic interests change over time. As South Asia witnesses several significant developments such as the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan, increase in terrorism coupled with India’s rising power status, it becomes imperative for external players such as Russia and the US to rethink and reorient their policies. Therefore, in a scenario of such fluid and dynamic interests, India must watch the developments in Russia-Pakistan relations closely.

The author is Junior Research Fellow at International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore. Views expressed are personal.