Jihadi outfits will devour Pakistan one day

By now it is apparent that despite confession by Ajmal Amir Qasab and all other evidence, the Pakistani leadership is not prepared to accept that anyone from that country is linked to the heinous terror attack in Mumbai on 26/11.

Pakistan Army tried similar denial tactics in Kargil war. It resulted with eggs all over the face when captured Pakistan Army personnel and documents were shown on TV channels to their audience and the rest of the world.

 The stubborn denials, accompanied by the sound of bugles and drumbeats for yet another Indo-Pakistan war, may have been good diplomatic strategy and information tactics. But this will further encourage terrorism on their soil, which is the real threat that confronts Pakistan and rest of the world.

 In their indefensible denials, the first casualty is the credibility of the newly elected political leadership in Pakistan. The nascent democracy in Pakistan has leaders with feet of clay. Their too clever by half statements, and retractions, reflects submission before the backseat drivers of Pakistan Army. This is bound to take its toll, both inside and outside Pakistan.

 The war of words will have an impact on the Indian politics too. Till now, Indian leaders have taken electoral advantage of the promises made by Pakistani counterparts in joint declarations and agreements to stop cross-border terrorism. That will mean nothing in future. The short fuse has become shorter. Public outcry for strong politico-military action against Pakistan has become stronger.

 But the greatest danger ahead lies in the jihadi envelopment of Pakistan by its own terrorist groups like the LeT, Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Laskhar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Jundullah. Pakistan Army, which raised most of the 24 armed jihadi groups at various phases of Pakistan's six-decade long history (excluding those for Afghanistan) as covert instruments of state policy, is slowly but surely losing its control and influence over them.

 Whether there is a diplomatic or a military Indo-Pak war over Mumbai terror attack, these groups will benefit from it. This is a much greater security threat to Pakistan than what India can ever pose. A report prepared by the US, NATO and Afghan officials of the Special Security Initiative of the Policy Action Group, Kabul on July 9, 2006 had stated, "ISI operatives reportedly pay a significant number of Taliban living/operating in both Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight…. A large number of those fighting are doing so under duress as a result of pressure from ISI. The insurgency cannot survive without its sanctuary in Pakistan, which provides freedom of movement, safe havens, logistic and training facilities, a base for recruitment, communications for command and control, and a secure environment for collaboration with foreign extremist groups. The sanctuary of Pakistan provides a seemingly endless supply of potential new recruits for the insurgency."

Since then, Ahmed Rashid in his book 'Descent into Chaos' writes 'The Taliban are now expanding in Pakistan much faster than anyone could imagine'. The ruling Awami National Party (ANP) in NWFP has admitted that Pakistani Taliban and other rebel groups have extended their influence to most districts. More than 125 cases of kidnapping were registered in 2008. Schools, CD parlors and barber shops have been attacked with impunity. Girls are being forced to marry militants. Prominent ANP leaders are on their hit list. About 127 policemen were killed last year. The Frontier Constabulary and Frontier Corps have often surrendered rather than fight their fellow tribal involved in militancy. Reorganization of the Taliban in FATA has enabled al Qaeda to re-establish a base area and pursue its role in providing training and financing to its global affiliates. The JeM and LeT have been providing a constant flow of Jihadi would be 'suicide bombers'.

In Swat, 100 miles away from Rawalpindi, Mullah Fazlullah and his militant gangs are resisting the Pakistan Army successfully for last one year. Fazlullah is reported to have support of hundreds of fighters from FATA. After successfully ambushing the US and NATO convoys along the highway that runs through the Khyber Pass, Pakistani Taliban launched multiple attacks on two terminals where such convoys including dozens of Humvees were stationed. Over 300 NATO supply trucks were torched on December 7-8, 2008. Despite Pakistan Government protests and warnings, the US has intensified its missiles and drone strikes on targets in Pakistan. The US and NATO forces are now seriously considering opening logistic routes for Afghanistan through Central Asia. It seems that instead of Pakistan acquiring strategic depth across the Durand Line, it is the al Qaida and Taliban who have acquired the strategic depth.

The LeT or the Army of Pure, and Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) or the Army of Muhammad, are two of the largest Jihadi organizations in Pakistan. The LeT (name changed to Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) in 2005) was born as an armed wing of Markaz Dawat-ul Irshad (MDI), a group which received $200,000 from Osama bin Laden's Afghan Service Bureau to set up its sprawling headquarters at Muridke. While Muridke remains the nerve centre of the organization, it has offices all over Pakistan. This Markaz runs 200 secondary schools, 11 madrasas, two science colleges, an ambulance service, mobile clinics and blood banks, besides a charity organization called Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq. The educational curriculum of these schools and colleges are guided by the JuD leader Hafiz Saeed's philosophy to achieve jihad.  These views are also propagated through scores of the group's publications, including a multi-lingual website, www.jamatuddawa.org, and an Urdu monthly journal, Al Dawa with circulation of over a million, an Urdu weekly, Gazwa and a children' monthly, Nanhe Mujahid.

A fact that clearly indicates the growing clout of JuD is the freedom with which Hafiz Saeed leads Friday prayers at a Lahore mosque where he exhorts his followers to take up the path of jihad. In an interview to the Pakistan English monthly, Herald, he stated, "The need for jihad has always existed and the present conditions demand it more than ever". On October 13, 2008, he told his followers in Lahore that "India understands only one language i.e. the language of jihad." Posters carrying telephone numbers of its offices are seen in urban and rural areas of Pakistan's Punjab, urging young men to join jihad.

Some Indian leaders will never be able to forgive themselves for releasing Masood Azhar in the IC 814-Kandhar episode. With ISI support, Azhar went on to raise the JeM and became even more infamous after J & K Assembly attack on October 1 and Parliament attack on December 13, 2001. Last month, Pakistan's Defence Minister said that Azhar had been detained. Two days later, the Foreign Minister proclaimed that Azhar's whereabouts are not known.

Twice earlier, Azhar and Saeed were detained and their organizations banned. But the ISI was never keen to offend its jihadi partners by keeping them in detention for too long. It is reported that Azhar, Saeed and Maulana Khalili were paid 'severance pay' by the ISI in return for their agreeing to remain dormant for some duration.

The problem is that organizations like the JuD and JeM have been able to move into the Pakistan socio-political space left unoccupied by the long absence of legitimate political process. They enjoy tacit support of the establishment and growing acceptance in the civil society, particularly after the much publicized relief and rehabilitation activities in the quake-devastated POK. Many political leaders have been unequivocal in their praise of the JuD. Meanwhile, the JuD and JeM training camps in POK, NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan have been manufacturing 21st Century brand of jihadis. These men are like misguided missiles, waiting to be sent on missions within and outside Pakistan.

How will we benefit if just 8-10 Mumbai attack criminals are handed over to India? Is Pakistan is a position to control the rising tide of radical Islamic militancy that threatens to tear the country asunder? That serious doubt arises from the fact that in July 2007, Pakistan Army employed a brigade to clean up the Lal Masjid of its radical students and militants. 10 soldiers and 102 students were killed in three days of fighting. In the following three weeks, 120 soldiers and policemen were killed in Jihadi terrorists' attacks which included 12 suicide bombings. In 2008, there were 57 suicide attacks in Pakistan, killing 925 civilians and security forces personnel, as compared to 56 acts with 636 fatalities in 2007.

Pakistani state has already lost its writ over some 20,000 sq km along its western border. As someone pointed out, 'such a big loss of territory is bound to pit Pakistan against three possible invasions---foreign intervention (read the US troops), war of reprisals, and occupation of more territory by the Taliban and other terrorist elements'.

After denials and doublespeak on the Mumbai terror attack, whatever action India may take, state encouraged Jihadi terrorists' problem will haunt Pakistani government more than ever before. As Ahmed Rashid states, "Pakistan Army's insecurity, which since 1947 has essentially bred a covert policy of undermining its neighbors, has now come full circle, for Pakistan's very future is at stake as extremists threaten to undermine Pakistan itself." An 'undermined Pakistan' with its extremists and nuclear weapons will be a serious headache and security threat to India and rest of the world.

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Courtesy: Observer Research Foundation