Climate Wars: The Ultimate Battle Field

Never in the history of mankind has one remained so blissfully and wilfully ignorant of the awaiting catastrophe, as the present generation, of the dangers of climate upheavals that are likely to be caused by the turn of the century due to global warming. However, given that all the commitments made at the recently concluded ‘COP21’ at Paris are adhered to, which is a rather tall order; the inevitable may yet be delayed for some time. If past records are any indication, it comes out very clearly that we, the ‘conscious’ human beings, are the only ones responsible for the untold miseries that have befallen our great civilization, whether caused by natural disasters or the man-made monumental blunders of waging wars. This is further reinforced when we compare the casualties attributed to natural disasters pegged at 125 million to that of conflicts including two Great Wars at 160 million. While the term Water Wars came about in the beginning of this century, Climate Wars may be the new term at hand!

Before we proceed to look at the outcome of Paris Conference, let us very briefly dwell upon the way we have treated our ‘mother’ earth so far. The rise in temperature of the Earth is caused by many factors, starting with Greenhouse effect. About one third of the energy that falls on earth from the sun reflects back into space and is retained by the water vapours present in the environment; bouncing back of this energy to earth is called the Greenhouse Effect. It is essential to life on earth, without which the average temperature at the equator would be -10 degree Celsius but greater reflection would mean rise in temperatures beyond the need and affects climate control. On a global warming scale, Greenhouse Effect is followed by carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS) and other industrial chemicals.

Of all these, carbon dioxide is most dangerous; which reaches its maximum warming effect in about ten years after being released, and not only that, it remains stable for even beyond 1000 years.[i]The carbon footprints in the environment are caused by burning of coal and other industrial emissions. Today the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is 40% higher than what it was at the beginning of industrial revolution[ii]. Now the total availability of carbon space in the environment is 2900 Giga Tons (GT), out of which we have already occupied 1900 GT from 1850 to 2011 and the world will emit another about 748.2 GT by 2030 at the present rate of emission (6.7 ton global per capita). So what will be left after 2030 will be paltry 251.8 GT!!Although India is 4^th biggest emitter after the US, EU and China it is ranked 120^thin terms of per capita emission.

In the last 100 years we have managed to increase the temperature of the earth by0.75 degree centigrade, wherein Antarctica alone has gone up by 17 degrees. Many experts do believe that this rise of temperature could go up to three degrees by 2030, causing disastrous consequences if urgent steps are not undertaken to arrest the present trend. One forecast even talks of temperatures rising up to 8 degrees centigrade by the end of this century! Does the answer lie in carbon budgeting?[iii]

The other major effect of global warming has been in the form of depletion of the Ozone layer around the earth. While a large amount of carbon dioxide gases get converted into oxygen by the plant life, certain type of chemical emissions decrease the Ozone in the environment. The Ozone layer is responsible to protect us from the harmful effects of ultraviolet (UV) rays. Here again we have caused a drop of around 4% inthe Ozone layer since 1970 alone.

Finally, let us turn to global climate control efforts of ‘we the people’. It was little over two decades back, in 1992, under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), that the first signs appeared towards collective efforts to manage the climate, already burdened with huge developmental differential which has actually been responsible for the deterioration of  the environment to present levels. But nothing appreciable has happened until the ‘COP21’. And in the words of the French President, “Nothing is agreed upon until it is agreed upon”; Howprophetic does that sound for the future? 

At Paris it all started on 30^th November 2015 and was to last till11^th December 2015 but was extended by a day to iron out the differences on the final Draft Agreement that will be required to be presented at the United Nations and will be signed on 22^nd April 2016,  The Mother Earth Day. The basic aim of the agreement is to ‘ambitiously’ keep the rise of temperature of the earth to below 2 degree Celsius, in fact make an endeavor to keep it at 1.5 degree by the end of the century.[iv]Actually there have been four contentious issues in the way of consensus building for climate control-

• Common But Differential Responsibilities (CBDR).
• Monitoring mechanism.
• Climate Finance.
• Legal binding on the implementation of the agreement.

Notwithstanding the hype created around the final document with words like “….most beautiful revolution of all….” at the end of the extended deliberations the core issues remain. Many believe that it is a compromised deal that can at best be termed as “lowest minimum denominator”; it is neither fair nor responsive to future requirements. Rich nations have not undertaken any responsibility for the greater pollution caused by them so far, nor is there any legal binding on their contribution to $100 billion funds. There is no mention of carbon budgeting either and overall it continues to be case of “Climate Apartheid” in the words of Sunita Narain, Director General of Centre for Science and Environment (CSE).

All in all, there is pressure building on developing countries once again in the name of Climate Control. The agreement has a target of keeping global warming to well below 2 degree celsius; in fact the endeavour would be to keep it to 1.5 degrees. Achievable targets are required to be reflected every five years in advance, starting 2020, and to be monitored in a most transparent manner every year. The mitigation component talks of a combined push on innovation and technology to help sustain the targets, besides pushing up investments in energy sector. In Indian context, it very clear that come 2020,we will be under constant pressure to shoulder greater burden for mitigating climate change much in conflict with our demands of development!! 

What it all boils down to is that we are into a future of even greater uncertainties. No matter what is done to overcome the effects of climate change, it needs to be combated on many fronts and by everyone to provide a synergistic effect at the global level. The push for renewable sources of energy and technology solutions to reduce warming and polluting effects caused by unchecked use of resources will have to be undertaken simultaneously.  While some areas now under subzero temperature conditions may become more conducive for living, others already too hot may become unliveable. There is a real danger of island countries like Tuvalu (4 meter above sea level), getting submerged. Let us also not forget that 13 of the 15 largest cities in the world are in coastal plains. Will all this not make our international world order go under further turmoil? The world better be prepared for disaster management, management of displaced people as also more conflicts arising from sharing of natural resources on earth between the haves and have-nots. In times to come it has a bigger potential to add another dimension to our security paradigm.

Views expressed by Author are personal.