Situation Report: Arrest of Islamic State Suspects in India

Situation

On 22-23^rd January, 2016, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) carried out countrywide raids (Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bangalore, Mangalore, Roorkee, Aurangabad, Tumkur, Lucknow) and apprehended 15 people allegedly linked with the Ansar-ut Tawhid fi Bilad al-Hind (Soldiers of the Indian Caliphate) which is an offshoot of Indian Mujahidin (IM). The group has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) and is utilising its cyber skills for propaganda and recruitment. All accused were under surveillance since last 6-7 months. Most of them are said to be software professionals who had access to online radicalisation literature, besides they were also said to be in contact with former IM leader Shafi Armar alias Yusuf, who reportedly recruited them. Their agenda was to motivate new recruits, procure explosives and weapons, target police officers and foreigners and carry out terrorist activities in various parts of India. The operations were financed through Hawala. NIA has shifted all the accused to New Delhi for further investigation. Followed by these arrests and the information revealed by accused during interrogations NIA continued its operations. In Roorkee, police have started search for seven other people who were in contact with the person arrested from there.  

Background

Prior to recent crackdown, two arrests had taken place earlier. Muhammad Sirazuddin, an executive of the Indian Oil Corporation was arrested in December 2015 for allegedly spreading IS activities online and trying to recruit new cadre. He himself was on the verge to becoming a lone wolf attacker. Maulana Anzarshah Qasmi, a radical preacher who used to spread extremist thoughts through his sermons, was arrested for his links with Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Of the terror suspects arrested from Karnataka, six suspects had come in contact with each other during his lectures.

To take preventive measures against the threat of IS, a meeting under Home Minister, Rajnath Singh was conducted in New Delhi on 16 January 2016, where top officials of central intelligence agencies and Police Commissioners of 13 states were in attendance. Increased online activity of IS and possibility of lone wolf attack were the central issues which were discussed during the meeting. It is likely that the decision of nationwide crackdown to prevent the possible attacks on the eve of 67^th Republic Day of India could have been taken in this meeting.

The severity of situation increases because, IS chief for Khurasan province, Hafiz Saeed Khan in its recent issue of propaganda magazine Dabiq, said that people in Kashmir have pledged allegiance to the group. He further criticized Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and other Islamic terrorist organizations active in Kashmir for being stooges of Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI.

Analysis

Around 15-20 individuals from India have joined the IS cadres since the establishment of Caliphate. While the small figure of Indian youth among IS ranks may not raise alarm but it does expose vulnerabilities among the large population of Indian Muslims who could be swayed by the propaganda of the militant group. A case in point is the Lucknow based cleric Syed Salman Husaini Nadwi who is the only Indian/Asian amongst the 120 Islamic scholars across the world to send congratulatory letter to IS leader Caliph Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

    With both IS and Al Qaeda gaining traction in South Asia, India’s concerns are further heightened over the dangers of global Jihad. At home, Indian Mujahedeen (IM) also shares its aspirations of establishing an Islamic Caliphate. Although the military capability of these groups to wage a massive terror attack from within the country is impeded by security and intelligence agencies, India remains vulnerable to the threat of radicalisation and home grown terrorism.

Following the hostage crisis of Indian citizens wherein 39 Indians are still held captive by IS in Mosul and 3 more Indians were recently abducted in Libya, the government is under pressure.. The use of Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT) by the National Investigation Agency with the US, Canada and Australia to gather more information on the activities of returning Indian fighter is another step taken by the intelligence and security agencies to counter the threat posed by IS’s ideology. In Europe the fear of returning fighters is eminent, they are tactically sound and battle hardened. However in India the likely threat  appears to be more of opportunistic attacks involving limited planning, though probably with high impact .

Implications

The increased threat of ISIS and Governments agenda to prevent it from gaining traction in India would have following implications:-

1. Surveillance by the intelligence agencies of the virtual world will increase in coming days. Maharashtra ATS has blocked 94 Jihadi websites and Uttarakhand madarssas banned use of social media in the campus.
2. There will be more restrictions on the people desiring to travel to West Asia, specially Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen.
3. Threat of Lone Wolf attack in the major cities would loom large.
4. If the Shia community is targeted by IS affiliated members in the future, possibility of sectarian clashes between Shiites and Sunnis cannot be denied, a phenomenon not largely experienced in India till date. This may also hamper the delicate security situation in Kashmir where both the sects coexist, but with underlying currents of discord.
5. Fractionalisation in South Asian terrorist organizations could increase in coming days based on ideological allegiances and differences and in conduct of terrorist activities.     
6. In the long run, in a bid to capture attention and lure more recruits in their ranks, both AQ and IS will attempt to carry out sensational strikes in the country, necessitating more vigilance from the security agencies.

Measures

1. Detailed background check to be done by the public and private firms in coordination with intelligence organisations of their Indian employees returning from conflict zones where IS has presence.
2. Need to maintain fine balance between vigilance and non interference in freedom of employees’ privacy by the Companies and its security agencies.
3. A more liberal communication pattern must be encouraged at the family level in order to prevent the youth from being lured towards extremist ideas.
4. Individual needs to be careful while using social media and if they come across any suspicious activity, immediately contact concerned agencies.

Author is Research Assistant at Centre for Land Warfare Studies.Views Expressed by author are personal.