Afghanistan: Heart of Asia

As the winter starts, Taliban will conclude its operation ‘Azm’, and both, Taliban and the Government, will start evaluating their achievements, failures and future strategies. However, in this passing fighting season both the parties are in a win-win situation. On one hand Taliban has inflicted unprecedented casualties through violence and on the other hand the Afghan National Army (ANA) has defended most of the territory with the limited Air support of NATO forces. Nevertheless Pakistan has maintained its punitive role in the region.  The major events which have dominated Afghan Security apparatus in 2015 are-

• Operation Zerb-e-Azb, Launched by Pakistan Army in its North Waziristan area
• Withdrawal of majority of NATO forces
• Chinese initiative in Afghan peace process
• Affirmation about the death of Mullah Omar and Mullah Akhtar Mansour taking over the leadership of Taliban which was followed by factionalism in Taliban
• Increasing activities of IS in the eastern and central provinces  of Afghanistan
• President Obama’s decision to maintain current US force level (Five thousand five hundred)  till the end of 2017
• NATO’s decision to continue financial assistance to ANA till 2020

With the developments in the background the upcoming fifth, ‘Heart of Asia Conference’ in Islamabad on 9^th December, 2015 will be a valuable platform to discuss all these issues and the role of regional countries in resolving them. This paper will discuss the possible outcome of this conference and how it could affect the three conflicting parties- Taliban, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The outcomes of earlier Istanbul Dialouges were a follow-up of the US policies because it was directly involved in the political, economic and security decisions of Afghanistan. After withdrawal of majority of the US forces, a vacuum has emerged in all these areas. Considering the evolving geopolitical situations in the region, all the regional players who are involved in this conflict one way or another, are reactivating their initiatives to fill this vacuum to attain their national interests. For example, Russia is actively supporting former Northern Alliance leaders, Iran is eying the North South Corridor which, once operational, will make Chabahar the regional hub for sea trade. Pakistan is dealing with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to establish connectivity and give them sea port access to Gwadar. In all these geopolitical developments Afghanistan is the middle man. However, like in the 90s, this might end up increasing competition between countries by projecting their influence. In order not to repeat history, President Ghani and his government is keeping close contacts with neighbouring states on bilateral and multilateral forums.Further he keeps meeting representatives of all Afghan ethnic communities, to make sure that they do not play as pawns to serve the national interest of other states. The consensus between all the regional countries for the stability of Afghanistan is imperative, hence this time the Heart of Asia Conference has a special significance.

There are immediate natural, economic and geographical constraints to fighting a physical war but less on the political and diplomatic fronts. Hence, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Taliban continue to use these means to achieve their interests and to remain relevant. This can be analyzed from the visits of Pakistan diplomats to all the regional countries in the last one year where Afghanistan has been discussed at great length. During the same period, Afghan diplomats were visiting regional countries to put forward Afghanistan’s stand on the issues vis-à-vis Pakistan and subsequently Taliban. On the other hand Taliban delegations visited Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE and China for the same reason. During President Ghani’s visit to Germany on 3^rd December, 2015 he said “Afghanistan suffered a lot due to the undeclared war from Pakistan and the first step by Islamabad should be an end to the situation”.

A critical aspect of this Conference is the fact that Pakistan is hosting it. Pakistan is trying to nullify, building international pressure on it because of its policies vis-à-vis Taliban and its interests in Afghanistan. Indeed Pakistan is the second most important country which has vested interests in Afghanistan, after the Afghan themselves. The Press release by MOFA Pakistan on 30^th November 2015, after the meeting between President Ghani and Nawaz Sharif, mediated by PM David Cameron, started with the statement “Pakistan attaches the highest importance to it’s relations with Afghanistan. Our peoples are bound by centuries old political, cultural and economic ties”. Nothing is substantial in this statement but, certainly, Taliban has further strengthened this close bond between Afghanistan-Pakistan. However this seems to be a one-sided affection, since the initial expectations of President Ghani are eroding after one year of dealing with Pakistan. This change of attitude is not just a result of the predominant rival views of Ghani’s colleagues from the government (CEO Abdullah Abdullah, NSA Hanif Atmar), with respect to Pakistan, but he has now understood the reality from first-hand inputs from the ground. Now the Afghan Government is reaching out to India and Russia with demand of lethal arms and attack helicopters for ANA; Dr Ghani has given clear indication that, henceforth, he would not be taking any face value assurance from Pakistan. President Ghani and the Indian Foreign Minister might attend the conference on 9^th December, where they will try to build international pressure on Pakistan to take firm action against the Afghan Taliban and other terrorist groups lest it face regional isolation in the near future. To prove his point President Ghani has denied land route access for Pakistan to Tajikistan construed as a quid pro quo to Pakistan denying India access to Afghanistan.

For Taliban,the outcome of this conference is imperative, because,in the near future if Pakistan were to change its policies vis-à-vis Taliban under international pressure, they would then have to look elsewhere for means and resources.  Hence, the Qatar faction of Taliban is reaching out to other regional countries independently, bypassing Pakistan. The Quetta Shura which has appointed Mullah Mansur as a new leader of Taliban after the death of Mullah Omar was confirmed on August 2015. Mansour hasless acceptability as a leader within the Taliban ranks and disagreement causing fractionalization is affecting central command and control structure of the Taliban and might hamper their over all operational capabilities in the future. The first condition Taliban has put forth to start negotiations is the ‘withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan’. This is less likely to happen in the near future. Without covert support of regional countries including Pakistan, Taliban is less likely to succeed in the next fighting season.

The common factor in the solution of the Afghan Conflict is the role of regional countries, where all three parties are aiming for an amicable solution. Success of this Conference lies in the consensus between these states on the issue of Taliban, role of Pakistan and regional integration through economic and energy projects. Hence a viable strategy to equip and train the ANA with the cooperation of all the regional countries by distributing responsibilities needs to be formulated.

Views Expressed by author are personal.