Taiwan: At the Cusp of New Order

India has understood the urgency of engaging South Asia, South East Asia and Pacific to enhance bilateral trade and also engineer its own string of Pearls. As India shifts gears from Look East to Act East Policy,it looks at widening its areas of activities in the region from economic and diplomatic domain to security and strategic issues. The bilateral relations with Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand and ASEAN have provided a suitable launch pad for India to change the orbit and engage these nation states at different level.

Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi has kept development of close relations with neighbours as a key priority for his government, engaging South East Asia and Pacific simultaneously will provide India leverage to maintain balance of power. Any future engagement with Taiwan is likely to provide India a multi-pronged exponential dividend on diplomatic, strategic and economic fronts. Taiwan has been an Asian Tiger in the manufacturing sector for long and India would do well to at least pick up its best practices as it hard-sells Make in India.

Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, is a sovereign state in East Asia. The Republic of China, originally based in mainland China, now governs only the island of Taiwan, which constitutes more than 99% of its territory, as well as Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, and other minor islands, following its loss of the mainland China  territory in 1949 in the Chinese Civil War. This remaining area is also constitutionally called the "Free Area of the Republic of China" which is free from Communist rule.

Taiwan was inhabited by aborigines of Malayan descent when Chinese from the areas now designated as Fukien and Kwangtung began settling it in the 7th century, becoming the majority. The Portuguese explored the area in 1590, naming it “the Beautiful” (Formosa). In 1624 the Dutch set up forts in the south, the Spanish in the north. The Dutch forced out the Spanish in 1641 and controlled the island until 1661, when Chinese general Koxinga took it over and established an independent kingdom. The Manchus seized the island in 1683 and held it until 1895, when it passed to Japan after the first Sino-Japanese War. Japan developed and exploited Formosa. It was the target of heavy American bombing during World War II, and at the close of the war the island was restored to China. After the defeat of its armies on the mainland, the Nationalist government of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in Dec 1949. Chiang dominated the island, even though only 15% of the population consisted of the 1949 immigrants, the Kuomintang. He maintained a 600,000-man army in the hope of eventually recovering the mainland. Beijing viewed the Taiwanese government with suspicion and anger, referring to Taiwan as a breakaway province of China. The UN seat representing all of China was held by the Nationalists for over two decades till Oct 1971, when the People's Republic of China was admitted and Taiwan was forced to abdicate its seat to Beijing.

China and Taiwan, while in practice maintaining a fragile "status quo" relationship, periodically grow impatient with the diplomatic patchwork that has kept the island separate from the Communist mainland since 1949.  After losing the civil war to Communist Chinese and fleeing to Taiwan in 1949, the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) leaders of the Republic of China regarded the Communist Chinese government as illegitimate, claiming the mainland as rightfully their own. Beijing, in turn, regards Taiwan as a renegade province, and has tried repeatedly to persuade the island to negotiate a return to the fold. The KMT returned to power in 2008 after being in opposition for eight years. During this time President Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had engaged in policy that widely departed from the KMT, invigorating efforts to seek Taiwan's sovereignty. Current President Ma Ying-jeou took a decidedly more conciliatory approach; shortly after taking office he declared a "diplomatic truce" with China. Since then, Taiwan's relations with the mainland have improved. However, the elections are to be held in Jan 2016 and the prospects have already created ripples in Mainland and the Island state.The KMT is staring at likely defeat in the hands of DPP. Mr Eric Chu, the Party President of KMT and Mayor of New Taipei City has removed the earlier announced candidate Ms Hung Hsiu-Chu (perceived Chinese sympathizer) and nominated himself to contest against Ms Tsai Ingwen of DPP. China so far has kept quiet on the impending elections but is more amenable to work with Mr Chu and is rather wary of Ms Tsai Ingwen and the DPP.

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, on 07 Nov 15, the first such meeting between the two political rivals since the Chinese civil war ended in 1949 and ahead of elections on the island.The meeting in Singapore coincides with rising anti-China sentiment in Taiwan showing a favourable trend for the DPP.The meeting also was marked with symbolic posturing by the two leaders from wearing the tie of their respective party colour to calling each other Mr to sharing of bill at the hotel. “Both sides should respect each other’s values and way of life,” Mr Ma said as the talks began at the luxury hotel in Singapore. Mr Xi told the Taiwanese leader: “We are one family.” The two statements clearly manifest the aspirations of both the nation states as well as their expectations from each other. A day after the talk, China in conformity with its philosophy of iron fist in velvet gloves, warned Taiwan against pursuing an agenda of sovereignty. Taiwan’s forthcoming elections and the escalating tensions in the South China Sea are two perceived major reasons behind the unexpected meeting between Xi and Ma.The summit would help Beijing to press its case for closer relations with Taiwan before the elections, which is likely to see the pro-independence opposition DPP return to power.Beijing also needed Taipei’s help in dealing with its territorial disputes as the Taiwanese government, which fled the mainland to Taiwan in 1949 after its civil war defeat, possesses crucial historic evidence linked to territorial claims. China is making big strides globally on economic and diplomatic fronts and the proposed restructuring of its armed forces indicates serious thrust in migration from land and regional orientation to global outreach and China can ill afford a perennial irritant across the Taiwanese strait, hence the urgency to take Taiwan on board. The new generation Taiwan having benefitted from the democratic values, will never look at the Mainland China for aspirations. This will be first time that huge number of voters born to Taiwanese who were born after 1949 will vote. Therefore, there will be two generations of voters who would route for democratic values san single party system. The future of the two nations against such a backdrop will make an interesting watch. Engagement with Taiwan would lead India to have a more informed Taiwan policy. There exists tremendous potential in its unique geographical location and the political situation would also contribute to India’s understanding of the Asia-Pacific region.  Taiwan is situated in the middle of the disputed waters of the South and the East China Seas. Considering the continued threat from the People Republic of China (PRC) to its national security, Taiwan not only has a natural interest in the modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), China-Japan tensions, and the dynamic of Sino-US relations, but also a natural expertise on them. Taiwan and China have historical and cultural affinity, but political and strategic distance.

Strategically, Taiwan is close to the US and figures in Japan’s security considerations.But the US and Japan’s support for PRC’s One-China Policy has set a limit on their relations with Taiwan. Thus, Taiwan is not fully open to either of the major regional players. This situation leaves it marginalised and dissatisfied with every major power in the region and makes it a neutral interpreter of the region’s politics. India will do well to tap into this consultative potential of Taiwan.

Views expressed by the Author are personal.