A Speculation on China-Pakistan Collusion Against India

It is said that whatever has been imagined by the human mind, it has been able realise it until now, and that too in good time. That the science fiction of yesterday has been converted into reality today is a proof of the ever-expanding imaginative human mind. So too is the process of speculation, where tangible indicators follow afters peculations turn into reality.

A case in point arethe Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) between China and India. There have been eighteen rounds of border talks spread over nearly two decades with absolutely no real outcome, yet the talks continue. Despite the on-going exercise towards various CBMs,agreements and protocols for maintaining peace and tranquility on the borders, prominently the Border Personnel Meets (BPMs) amongst other CBMs like visits to military Headquarters and joint military exercises with each other for better understanding, little difference seems to have been made to the perceptions of the ground situation. It is not a very uncommon occurrence to observe ever-increasing border incursions, particularly whenever there has been high profile visit of Chinese delegations to India in the recent past.

Now we have a top Chinese military delegation in India to discuss measures to further upgrade existing CBMs along the 4057 km long LAC. However, there are two very intriguing issues about this delegation; firstly its composition and secondly it’s coming to India via Pakistan.

Let’s look at the composition first. The 26-member delegation is headed by General Fan Changlong who is Vice Chairman of the CMC, which makes him the highest ranking Chinese General. The next member is Admiral Sun Jianguo, a submariner, in line to become the next Naval Chief in 2017 and the third high ranking official is Lt General Zhu Fuxi, political commissar of the Chengdu Military Region that faces India.[i] Are we looking at a combined discussion on CBMs for land borders as also the sharing of perceptions on maritime issues in the India Ocean Region (IOR)?  We should be aware that China has just two flash points with India; the border issues and Chinese presence in the IOR. So a combined delegation of Army and Navy could look at these issues in a complementary manner so to say. It may not be too pre-mature to imaginea common strategy to keep the Indian Army and the Navy engaged in these two areas in such a way that they are unable to move beyond for any effective influence elsewhere.

What seems to have added to the speculation of this visit, is the Pakistani connection. Is it that the Chinese want to understand the nuances of increasing the intensity of border engagements in a manner, so as to draw additional troops in that region without diluting the CBMs?Much the same way as Pakistan has been engaged in violating the ceasefire agreement time and again at a cost to India and yet making sure that the ceasefire agreement holds. In any case deeper and deeper forays are being indulged into across the perceived line of LAC by the Chinese troops,with all the CBMs still in place.

Pakistan on its part has already upgraded itssecurity calculus with China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a 15-year plan starting 2015,that is to be completed by 2030 if at all. It has already raised larger security issues with India and other stake holders. Given the fact that it passes through POK for which India has raised the objections. But on another plane this further undermines Pakistani claim to raise Kashmir issues under the UN mandate, since this would be the second time after Shaksgam valley (5800 Sq Km), that Pakistan has ‘bartered’ an occupied land by unilaterally allowing its use to a third party.

Although one is not sure of any credible studies on how much reliance can be placed on CPEC, for decreasing the degree of importance of IOR to China; though even a cursory look will convey the surmounting obstacles that lie ahead for rolling out the CPEC, to offset the real advantage of the IOR and the sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), that it offers to China. China in any case is moving forward to make out a case for its presence in IOR by way of developing ports of Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Chittagong/Sonadia ports in Bangladesh in addition to Gwadarin Pakistan and Sittwein  Myanmar.

Hambantota, situated on the Southern coast of the Island is an important Sri Lankan Port city. China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC), a subsidiary of the state-owned China Communication Construction Company (CCCC) along with Sinohydro, another Chinese state-owned firm has been involved in the construction since 2008. At present the third phase of construction is going on and once this is completed, it will be the largest port in South Asia encompassing over 4000 acres with berthing facilities for 33 vessels at a time.[ii] But this is not all;Sri Lanka Port Authority has already granted operating rights to this company for four berths at Hambantota as far back as 2010 which was part of the loan agreement. When SOT (Supply, Operate and Transfer) comes into effect (dates for which are yet to be decided) the Chinese group of companies will hold operating rights in both the Sri Lankan ports, additionally the Chinese will have effective control of 108 hectares (20 on freehold basis, 88 on 99 years lease) of land as well.[iii]

It is also well known that the Chinese,after building a container terminal at Chittagong ports, have been eyeing Sonadia Island (7 Km off Cox Bazar) for an entry into the Bay of Bengal.This however appears to have been stalled for the time being because Japan International Cooperation Agency is now set for construction of 18 meter deep sea port at Matarbari on the South Eastern coast of Bangladesh which is just 25 Km away from Sonadia Island.[iv]

So either way the IOR will continue to remain in focus for all times to come. Should it then not make sense to tie down the Indian Navy in its backyard rather than its ambitions to become a Blue Water Navy beyond the shores of India and to cooperate with other regional players for power projection at regional as also global level? So it makes perfect sense to see the land and maritime boundaries as complementary and two sides of the same coin ina strategic sense.

Therefore what should be our take at the end of it all; this will require a separate debate but one thing is clear - that there is a distinct case for our Armed Forces to embark upon the path of modernization in a synergistic manner with utmost speed if we are to be aspiring regional and global player in the power game. As a short term measure one has to look at the world markets but long term salvation lies in self-sufficiency.