A New Cold War Dynamic: US and Russia in Syria

The current crisis in Syria has come a long way from being an offshoot of the Arab Spring to a regime crackdown. The massive crackdown has had multiple repercussions, the crucial one being the rise and the spread ofthe Islamic State (IS). This has also had subtler yet strategic undertones, which have had further repercussionson the regional dynamic as well as the global world order.

The security quagmire encompasses not only dealing with IS which in itself is a task, but something more detrimental. The crisis has brought to the forefront the unfolding of a ‘new cold war’, abattle for influence among the members of the coalition continues. This is especially true with the US and Russia.

USA and Russia have always had some sort of a cold war going on between them whether they are on the same side or not.  This cold warhas ebbed and flowed depending on the crisis at hand. Overtime,it has become less pronounced but at the same time more dangerous, especially with the current crisis. The Russia-Iran alliance has added to this and has created strategic alarm for the US in spite of the convergence in goals.

The Stagnating US Policy

The Obama administration has prolonged, dwindled and twiddled its thumbs on its policy towards Syria. The administration was confused on what exact strategy it would or should follow in Syria. Invading or regime change were options but in these cases there were more uncertainties. There are several anti-Assad rebel groups; if Assad was to be overthrown what would Syria's polity look like was the major question. To add to this, the internal politics in America has further added to the trouble as Congress, the war-making branch itself was and is divided on the proper course of action. Congress has still not authorised the President to attack either the regime forces or at present the IS.President Obama has made repeated attempts to get Congress to authorise use of force against IS and Assad this included his 2016 State of the Union address[i]. But the Republican-controlled body is unwilling as history is the bearer of  lessons.

The administration at first took a long time to act, the situation worsened and the international community had a nightmare on their hands. The administration made it clear that an attack would only be possible if it had international support. This in itself proved to be a momentous task.The international coalition includes western and regional countries as both have alot at stake.[ii]But the level of determination can be questioned.

As the IS ravages through Syria and Iraq coupled with the attacks in Paris, military gains of the international coalition working with the Iraqi and Syrian military gains are limited as the coalition requires to curb the growth of IS. President Obama has reiterated time and again the main agenda is to destroy and dismantle the terrorist network, President Obama has reached out to President Putin in an attempt to come up with a solution. But President Putin is motivated by a different agenda.

The Russian Flexible Policy

Russia has thwarted the US efforts in Syria; the Russians have supported the Assad regime and continue to do so. They have used their clout in the UN and their veto power to impede the international community and more importantly the US in its endeavours in Syria.  They have supplied arms and ammunition to the regime to fight against the rebel forces and now IS.They have deployed fighter jets against IS.[iii] The Russian ‘unholy alliance’ with Iran has added fuel to the already brewing fire and further complicated the situation.

President Putin and Assad as well as Assad and the Ayatollah have met on numerous occasions to discuss the situation in Syriaand find a workable solution. However, Russia has shown that its only interest lies in grandstanding. This is especially true when the US and the international community were ready to intervene militarily in Syria and Russia by back-channelling and making a deal with Assad . Butwith the spread of IS the Russian stance has changed.

Now that Russia is involved inthe military intervention in Syria the dynamics have changed. The US and other western powers can no longer ignore the crucial role of Russia in the ongoing crisis. Therefore, making a serious effort into bringing Russia into the fold, especially with the UN Security Council decision on a ‘peaceful framework’for Syria and increasing sanctions on the IS, would require an agreeable Russia.[iv]

President Putin has repeatedly asked President Assad to step down so thatsome sort of political transformation can begin. With Assad in power this does not appear possible and there seems to be no end to violence that isfuelled by the IS. At the same time, the Russians feel that having Assad remain in power will be a bulwark to ISIS. But this notion has come under fire as the violence and IS activity rages on.

The question is does Russia have a strategy towards Syria or is its strategy not to have a strategy and go with the flow ?[v]

The New Cold War

The Russian attempts to thwart the western powers at every stage as well as pairing up with Iran has made them a greater security risk. The lack of trust among the members of the coalition especially the quandary of Obama v Putin, Obama v Iran, Obama v Assad has deviated from the crisis and created a corresponding predicament. 

It will be along time before the US and Russia work together in Syria though their goals do converge. The ‘cold war’ scenario is mainly due to the clashes of the leaders. Putin has always wanted to flex Russian muscle wherever possible, be it in his own backyard, in Europe or in the Persian Gulf. It looks like the goal of Russian foreign policy ever since the beginning of the cold war is to outdo the US. President Obama unlike President Bush is unwilling to get embroiled in another war or cold war scenario as there are already too many balls in the air to juggle.

If the next US presidentis unwilling to back away,the situation could change very easily between US and Russia. The ongoing cold war of political posturing could very well  divide the international community once again thus changing international scenarios and conditions.  China, Iran, Israel will be caught in the cross-hairs.

As a result of this new cold war and the battle for influence between the two, the crisis in Syria rages on as the IS too grows. If these two inter-related problems have to resolved,the international coalition have to understand that this includes both Russia and the US and that the fact central aspect should be to resolve the Syrian crisis. Russia, because of its close ties to the regime, is in a unique position to mitigate the crisis.