China�s Missile Deployment in Woody Islands: Strategic Assessment

The Chinese dragon is once again out there. The recent HQ-9 missile deployment by China in South China Sea (Woody Islands) between 3^rd and 14^th February, 2016 is a part of Chinese strategic and expansionist thinking. China’s reaction is brought out by the US’ recent actions (navigation patrols) in the region and is further supposed to create a ripple effect in the region.

South China Sea

By UN definition, an island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide.[i] By this definition, most of the islands in the South China Sea are artificial. China, through infrastructure projects and constructions, has been claiming these islands for long. India and the US, on the other hand, consider the region as an open sea route.

China claims most of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion in global trade passes every year, and has been building runways and other infrastructure on artificial islands to bolster its territorial claims. The region is also thought to have significant oil and gas reserves. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan have rival claims on the area.

Missile Deployment in Woody Island: A Strategic Move

China has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of the disputed islands (Woody Islands) it controls in the South China Sea. Woody Island, largest in the Paracel archipelago, is home to Beijing’s only large operational airfield in the South China Sea. The island is part of the Paracels chain, under Chinese control for more than 40 years but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Images from civilian satellite company ImageSat International show two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system.[ii] Taiwan, which also claims the island,along with the USconfirmed the deployment.Woody Island is inhabited by at least 1,000 people, mostly soldiers, construction workers and fishermen.In 1956, China established a permanent presence on the island and in 2012, China established Sansha city local government office on the island to administer the whole South China Sea area.[iii]

The timing of the deployment has very much to do with the conclusion of Summit in California where US President Obama and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) discussed the need for tangible stepsto ease tensions in the region and where Obama called for the halt of the reclamation, construction and militarization of the South China Sea.

Earlier, the US navy destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels chain which includes Woody Island, in “freedom of navigation” operations (FONOPS) late January 2016. The Pentagon said that the move was aimed at countering efforts by China, Vietnam and Taiwan to limit freedom of navigation and assured of continued navigation by ships and aircraft through the South China Sea. The US has also objected to any “militarizing” of the islands. China, on the other hand, condemned the action as being “highly dangerous, provocative and irresponsible” and accused the US of being “the biggest cause of militarization in the South China Sea”.[iv] In this light, the deployment can be seen as China’s effort to signal a response to freedom-of navigation operations.China’s move is likely to rattle Vietnam the most because of its proximity to the Paracels and because of a history of maritime tensions with China that culminated in 2014 with a standoff after China moved a massive oil rig into disputed waters.[v] In fact, this deployment also comes in the backdrop of Vietnam’s continued engagement with Russia in terms of purchase of submarines; the fifth of the eight agreed upon submarines to be bought by Vietnam just reached Vietnam on the 2^nd of February 2016.

This deployment on the part of China is a well-thought out strategic move. China has said it would not seek militarization of its South China Sea islands and reefs, but that did not mean it would not set up defences.“Woody Island belongs to China”, said Ni Lexiong, a naval expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, “and deploying surface-to-air missiles on our territory is completely within the scope of our sovereign rights. We have sovereignty there, so we can choose whether to militarize it”.[vi] The Chinese defence ministry told Reuters in a statement that defence facilities on “relevant islands and reefs” had been in place for many years, adding that the latest reports about missile deployment were nothing but “hype”.[vii] Beijing has further claimed that the structures it has been building on the reclaimed islands, including lighthouses and meteorological stations, are for “the public good”, and will help navigation and sea rescues in the disputed waters.The mere fact that China is building all these assets reaffirms the Chinese claim over the contested waters.

According to some Chinese officials, placing missiles on Woody Island is a logical move to improve protection of China’s military assets in the vicinity, including a naval base capable of hosting submarines.[viii] However, the latest move must be seen as part of a conscious effort by China to progressively extend its strategic footprint in the South China Sea and as a response to the US’ moves to contain China as can be seen in its recent announcement of plans to deploy the US-developed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea, in response to North Korea’s apparent nuclear test in January 2016 and missile launch  in February 2016. China is, indeed, strategically hardening its presence in the South China Sea, thereby projecting its predominant and unparalleled military position throughout the region.

World Response

The latest Chinese move has prompted China’s neighbours to appeal for restraint. Beijing’s reported ability to shoot down aircraft with anti-aircraft missiles is likely to alarm ASEAN members, who might add further pressure on the US to attempt to halt China’s military expansion. The Vietnamese premier, Nguyen Tan Dung, called for the US to play a larger role in demilitarization of the South China Sea and to have a “stronger voice”.[ix]

A senior US official told CNN that the decision to deploy while the summit was happening was a “further demonstration of China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo” in the South China Sea.[x] While the US has maintained that it has no vested interest in the region, it also asserts that any dispute in the region should be solved peacefully and not by a big nation “bullying” smaller neighbours – an apparent reference to China.[xi] But even as Beijing reclaims land to bolster its claims to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and its many reefs and islets, the United States is likely to move cautiously, current and former officials said. It does not want to set off a military confrontation with China over territorial claims on which the United States has not taken a position.[xii] The Obama administration further said that the missile deployment was at odds with a pledge made by the Chinese President Mr. Xi while visiting the White House last year to refrain from militarizing clusters of disputed islands throughout the South China Sea.[xiii]

The deployment, the first of its kind in the region, would add to tensions in an already disputed area. Asian countries, however, remain divided over how robustly to resist China’s expansion. Maritime countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, which have competing claims with Beijing, are pushing for more vigorous action, while continental countries like Laos and Cambodia, which have close economic ties to China, are reluctant to provoke their neighbour.[xiv] A senior Japanese cabinet member labeled China’s actions as unacceptable saying it would further aggravate the already messy territorial dispute in the region.[xv] India supports the open route position of the South China Sea. China’s growing control in this region might be problematic for India as China would then look to further its expansion in the Indian Ocean. Speaking at Delhi Dialogue VII, an annual forum to brainstorm on all aspects of the ASEAN-India relationship, External Affairs Minister SushmaSwaraj said that maritime security was an important area of concern and India consistently maintains that all the states should avoid unilateral actions in South China Sea that can further escalate the tension in the region.

Conclusion

An operational HQ-9 would provide coverage for Woody Island as well as the southern approaches to Hainan island, where China’s main naval bases are located. China’s move to choose Woody Island is, thus, intentional. It is projecting its air defence further in the South China Sea. China, through the deployment, also seems to warn Southeast Asian leaders not to get too close to the US in the South China Sea as can be clearly spelt out in the Chinese continuous assertion that the extent of China’s “defences completely depends on the level of threat China faces”.[xvi]

The Chinese deployment, thus,underscores the growing risk of conflict among the Chinese, their neighbours and the United States. The entrenched positions taken by the US and China might narrow the options for a diplomatic solution to the disputed region of the South China Sea. Although the current deployment is symbolic, China wants to test the patience of the neighbours and the US. If they do not object to this move through a constructive response, it will mean a green signal for China to further its ballistic missile launch system in the region. The deployment may also give signals to the US and other nations that they must think twice before challenging the Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea by sending aircraft over the area.

Interested parties, therefore, should work together to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea region and refrain from taking any unilateral measures that would increase tensions.Tensions are already high in the acrimonious South China Sea disputed region as the deployment indicates towards dramatically upping the stakes in a territorial dispute in which the US and its allies are involved.