Pakistan: Strategy of Outsourcing Economy and Security of the Nation

Introduction

If there is a nation that beats the best of fact-based calculations regarding its future trajectory, it is Pakistan! When the state came into existence on 14 August 1947, in two halves in the form of West and East Pakistan, many had predicted a short honeymoon of independence but it lasted over two decades until Bangladesh was created of its East Pakistan as a result of Indo-Pak war of 1971.

What followed was a series of speculations regarding its state of economy, which was primarily based out of East Pakistan. Bhutto, after the war, thus announced very boldly that Pakistan would produce an Atom Bomb (Islamic bomb) even if it meant eating grass by the rest of the population of the country. And it did produce the Bomb. Now Pakistan is leaning towards Saudi Arabia in the present West-Asian turmoil, which may well confirm if indeed it was an Islamic Bomb.

In the decades of nineties, Pakistan went along with the USA-supported Taliban to drive out the Russians from Afghanistan and that successful model encouraged it to wage a proxy war against its arch rival India with devastating effects, on the blow-hot-blow cold relations between the two worthy neighbours. It has worked negatively towards an elusive peace in the Indian Sub-continent.    

Collusivity with China

In the true spirit of ‘enemy’s enemy are meant to be friends’, the first such indication came in the year 1963, just after the 1962 Sino-Indian conflict. Pakistan handed over Sakshgam Valley, a part of Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), an area of 5180 Sq Km to China in 1963. In the scheme of things as it turned out later, it had presumed that the line beyond NJ 9842 in Siachen Glacier will run northwards to Karakoram Pass and not along Saltoro Ridge based on the ‘Water Shed principle’, which now stands occupied by the Indian Army. So, the area thus handed over to China actually lies between these two conflicting claim lines.

Since then it has also been putting forward its claim for the whole of Siachen Glacier on the following lines:-

1. Siachen Glacier and its approaches fall within Pakistan ‘controlled and administered’ territory of J&K, more specifically in the Baltistan district of the Northern Areas.
2. Northern Areas was never under the direct jurisdiction of the state of J&K in an undivided India prior to the partition.

The factual position is that, strategically whoever owns Siachen Glacier controls Shyok and Nubra Valleys; as well as the region bordering China. Therefore its occupation ensures security of Ladakh in particular and the state of J&K in general. 

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)  

Although this project was proposed in 2013, it has been announced only in April 2015 during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The CPEC is a 3000 km-long network of roads, rail and pipelines projects along with dry ports, Special Economic Zones and other supporting infrastructure, which will link the port of Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) to the Chinese city of Kashgar through Xinjiang-Uygur region, a distance of nearly 10,000 km. Gwadar port with possible military capabilities, is being built by Chinese companies and has already been taken on lease for 40 years. It is a $45 billion joint project spread over 15 years. All these Chinese activities on Pakistan soil are likely to usher in untold amount of economic prosperity to Pakistan.

Once again this corridor passes through the areas of Baltistan-Gilgit, referred to as Northern areas in POK. The Chinese intend making 200 Km of tunnel in this corridor to make it an all-weather road. Going by the sensitivity of the project and the fact that it runs through part of J&K, it goes without saying that besides providing economic advantages to Pakistan it has any number of security implications for India.

Development of Infrastructure by Chinese Troops in POK

It has been a very common occurrence to see number of Chinese troops in POK along the line of control for the past many years, apparently for construction work in POK. The Indian Army has spotted the presence of senior PLA officials at forward posts opposite Nowgam sector in North Kashmir, after which some intercepts of Pakistani army officers suggested that the Chinese troops have come to create some infrastructure along the LOC. Their presence has also been reported opposite Tangdhar sector.[i]

The report further adds that a Chinese government owned, China Gezhouba Group Company Limited has been building a Jhelum-Neelum 970 MW Hydel power project in this area, in response to India’s Kishanganga power project being built at Bandipora in North Kashmir. Intercepts also go on to suggest that the Chinese PLA would be digging some tunnels in Leepa Valley to provide an all-weather alternative connectivity to Karakoram highway in the area.[ii] All this, although, has been denied by Chinese officials.

A Case for Collusive Future Conflicts

India has been raising objections to such presence of Chinese troops in the area of POK, which are still under dispute; however these have fallen on deaf ears. India has maintained that no such activity should be undertaken by a third party; that could well provide an excuse for them to interfere in any future conflict or negotiations. This is not all, the bartering of the disputed land amounts to violation of the rights of the people of the State of J&K that is an integral part of India.

It is amply clear that in Pakistan’s strategic calculations, China is being provided an access to that area which Pakistan very well understands to be disputed. Apparently it feels that at some point of time in case of any conflict of interests, China could also assert itself to protect what it may consider to be its own self-interest. Pakistan could possibly be  clearing the decks for Chinese intervention in any future conflicts with India as regards border disputes.

In case of any hard power military response by India across line of control, either against the terrorist’s camps in POK or Pakistan’s activities along the LC, there will always remain a real possibility of Chinese nationals working on these infrastructural projects getting injured in shelling/direct firing and thus providing a platform for conflict conflagration.

Chinese too need to be aware and must remain sensitive to these real possibilities that are likely to do more harm than good to healthy neighbourly relations between three nuclear powers. One also needs to remember the ever-lengthening   shadows of conflicts in West-Asia and its spread to other areas where power vacuums wait to be filled. China too has these elements in Uighurs, ready and ripe for exploitation.

Conclusion

There is a need to remember that Security and Economy are two sides of the same coin, one is not possible without the other. It is too much too pack it together and hand it over to a third party. How can one simply forget that in international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only national interests are upper-most?