Silk Road Strategy: Possible Short Term and Long Term Forecasts

Within the realm of mainstream International Relations theories, one can count on Idealism, Realism, Neo-realism, Constructivism, etc. To contextualize within the ambit of Silk Road strategy being envisioned by competing actors such as China, US, India, Russia, one can find shortcomings in each of these aforementioned theories. While idealism stresses too high a premium on idealistic, romanticized nature of state behaviour to the extent of being non-rational and non-feasible, realists on the other hand emphasize solely on raw concepts of power, self-help, national interest within an anarchic set-up. Similarly, neo-realists point to another important dimension of capability without which none of the elements attributed by the realists could even be made functional. In contemporary times, constructivist theorists point to a more nuanced cultural aspect that looks in to ideational and normative aspects of state and in its handling of foreign policy decision making mechanism.

Silk Road strategy at the present time has been a grand strategy of sorts among big powers trying to stake out visionary positions for the short term to long term goals of changing the paradigm of global power equation. What are likely emerging scenarios in the short term as well as in the long term?

A Short Term Scenario:

Firstly, Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and Maritime Silk Road (MSR) are being intertwined to provide strategic depth to China in its plan for co-opting as many countries as possible within the Eurasia and beyond in order to garner maximum leverage.

Secondly, Silk Road Economic Belt is being extended in various regions of Asia and Europe with equal zest. In the North, the belt extends from Central Asia to Russia to countries of Europe whereas in the Central belt, it extends from Central Asia to West Asia, Persian Gulf nations and the Mediterranean countries. Similarly, in the South, the belt covers China, South East Asia, South Asia and on to the littoral states surrounding the Indian Ocean. This huge geographical outreach is likely to provide China a wide latitude as it tries to negotiate its enhanced status with other powers under SREB and MSR.

Thirdly, under One Belt One Road (OBOR), China wants to have both: congruence of sea power dominance (à la Mahan) and Heartland, World Island and Associated Rim Land Concepts (à la Mackinder).

Fourthly, there is a good possibility of the emergence of a working quadrangular relationship between China, India, Russia and US- each staking out its own position and at the same time not trying to change the goalpost to the extent of asymmetry of power. In this context, unlike what C. Raja Mohan surmises in his book SamudraManthan: Sino-India Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, ‘the churning of the seas’ may not necessarily lead to confrontation. Further, as Robert Kaplan states in his book, Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power, India stands at critical juncture at the commanding center of the India Ocean, and that might provide India a crucial edge in the competition against China. 

Fifthly, countries such as India might adopt a policy of Congagement 2.0 with emphasis on strategic autonomy in its dealing with China on matters related to Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

Sixthly, there is a possibility of the emergence of interdependent and interconnected Silk Road Eurasia Corridor to the advantage of the countries under its Silk Road strategy.

Seventhly, although bilateralism will be the guiding force between and among nations, multilateralism may be preferred in the areas of non-traditional security (for example, human security, water security, energy security, maritime security, disaster management, drugs and human trafficking, piracy, international terrorism, etc).

Eighthly, in spite of movement on integration at the economic level, it will be a time of profound transition in terms of changing climate, rapid population growth, resource scarcity, resurgence in ideology and extremism. How each nation under OBOR handles these delicate issues will determine the power trajectory.

And, finally, each nation will try to have a judicious mix of hard power and soft power in order to emerge as smart power in the world scene. India will have an advantage, as, apart from its young population along with a mammoth middle class, it is well poised to exhibit its strength through its new, assertive and muscular policy orientation. Although it may create a strategic dilemma vis-a-vis China, at the end of the day, nations will try to co-opt rather than confront.

In terms of the likely long-term implications of SREB and MSR strategies, firstly, over a period of time by 2040, there may be shift in the distribution of global power. Although 21^st Century is being acknowledged as the Asian Century (unlike the 20^th Century which was described as an American Century and the 19^th Century as the European Century), the order among China, India and Japan will be keenly watched by the international community.

Secondly, the likely emergence of nationalism in China, India, Russia and Central Asia will have reverberations in each of these countries and beyond with serious ramifications for any individual country winning easily the horse race to strategic and economic superiority.

Thirdly, volatile geographical regions such as Arunachal Pradesh, and India’s North East as well as Maoist insurgency in India’s hinterland and the schisms between Uighurs and the Chinese population in China’s Xinjiang province, intra-ethnic rivalry in Afghanistan and many parts of Russia and Central Asia, will have security implications for countries under the Silk Road strategy. How each country manages its internal house will determine to a large extent its projection as a super power.

Fourthly, there is a possibility of China and America to serve as co-hegemons, co-leaders, co-partners and co-facilitators. In this case, India may emerge as a game-changer and force multiplier with brand schemes such as Make in India, Skills India, Smarty City Project, Digital India, etc.

Fifthly, a peaceful integration of Eurasia might lead to reduction of terrorism which in turn might spur the growth index in states of Central Asia and adjoining it.

Sixthly, Sufism, as a form of religion cum cultural ethos, might serve as a common thread to the SREB and MSR region by counter-balancing various forms of fundamentalism and extremism.

Seventhly, although China might aggressively pursue ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, India might not lag behind by launching with new vigour Spice Route and Cotton Route and by roping in as many countries as possible across Indo-Pacific Ocean with the common, shared history, trade, commerce, migration, colonialism and modern statecraft. India can also evolve a forward-looking robust defence and naval cooperation with countries of the region through ‘Necklace of Diamonds’.