India�s Force Projection in the Eastern Sector:

In a relatively unnoticed but strategically significant step, the Indian Air Force deployed four Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft at its Tezpur airbase in Assam in June 2009. In addition, there are plans to station two full squadrons of Su-30 MKIs in two airfields of Assam. At the same time there is a move to increase the capacity of some of the hitherto unused airfields at strategic locations to handle large as well as advanced aircraft of the Air Force. Inducted a decade ago, the Su-30 MKI is India’s best fighter aircraft with superior reach and payload capacity. Its deployment close to the Chinese border is a significant first step in force projection in the eastern sector. The Su-30 MKIs in the eastern part of the country will also give India a strategic edge in the Indian Ocean region.

In another event of a similar nature, the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh and the former Chief of Army General (Retd) J. J. Singh was reported to have announced the planned augmentation in the eastern sector to the tune of two divisions. This is being planned with the aim of deterring the repeated instances of incursion by the Chinese army into Indian territory.

Together, these two steps signify a change in the Indian approach towards China. For long, the Indian armed forces have been criticised for their obsession with Pakistan while ignoring China as far as force projection and preparedness were concerned. Though the perception of China as a major threat has been around for sometime, nothing substantial followed on ground even after public statements. This perception intensified in recent times after China began to increasingly question India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh. China denied a visa to an officer of the Indian Administrative Service from Arunachal Pradesh, claiming that he does not need one, Arunachal being an ‘integral part of China’. It objected to the visits of the Prime Minister and the President to the state. The latest in this series have been the Chinese protests over the Asian Development Bank’s loan to India for the projects undertaken in Arunachal Pradesh.

At the same time, China has augmented its forces in the region bordering India in a quiet but sustained manner not just in terms of numbers but also strike capacity. This effort has been enabled by the sustained infrastructure development in the region, to keep its forces well supplied under all weather conditions. Much needs to be done by India so far as this aspect is concerned.

 The proposed positioning of two divisions would also mean that India will have to upgrade its infrastructure to keep troops well supplied throughout the year. However, under the present circumstances India looks unlikely to be in a position to remove its manpower from existing deployments. The present deployments of the army include those in Jammu and Kashmir, North-East, internal security related and peacetime activities in internal issues like relief efforts in case of natural disasters. Thus, the posting of two divisions in would require a major exercise in augmentation of existing manpower, which in turn goes against the policy of a lean and mean army.

That the Su-30 MKIs landed in Tezpur just as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was shaking hands with Chinese President Hu Jintao at the SCO and BRIC summits in Yekaterinberg is symbolic of the relations between the two countries. India has given a serious message that it is ready to cooperate with China where it is of mutual interest but will not silently suffer any challenges to its national security.

The task before the country’s diplomats will be to project the deployments in the region as routine affairs and ensure that an arms race does not arise in the region. It needs to be stressed that the Su-30 MKIs are only replacing the MiG-21s at Tezpur, and hence amounts only to upgradation and not to a major shift in perception. This is important because in the official Chinese media, this proposed increase in the number of troops is being perceived as an aggressive move by India. India must do everything to project this move as its own independent decision in its own national interest and dispel Chinese concerns of this being one more step in the grand encircling of China in tandem with the United States, Australia and Japan.

This is necessary because, in response China could raise the pitch against India. It could increase aid to Pakistan to fight terrorism and turn a blind eye on how these funds are being used. It could also mean that Pakistan will extract more leverage out of Chinese support by seeking a military deal which China could approve to try and keep India engaged on its western frontier. It should not then come as a surprise if the all-weather friendship between Pakistan and China leads to a military deal of strategic importance in the near future. It could also take form of greater support to various extremist groups active in the North-Eastern region of the country. It has been reported that ULFA enjoys safe haven in China. China sees India as a rising power which must be kept engaged in its backyard to keep it from flexing its muscle globally.

The Indian establishment must take into account all these aspects even as it goes ahead with the betterment of the security apparatus on the country’s eastern borders.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views either of the Editorial Committee or the Centre for Land Warfare Studies).